Saturday Free Horse Racing Picks: Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby

Saturday Free Horse Racing Picks: Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby

The winners of the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby will receive 100 points toward qualifying for the Kentucky Derby, which guarantees their inclusion in the starting gate. The second through fifth-place finishers in each race will receive 40, 30, 20, and 10 points, respectively.

Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park

• Post time: 6:40 PM ET
• Distance: 1 1/8 miles
• Field size: 12

This race starts and ends with the morning line favorite, Forte (4-5), who is nearly unanimously considered the No. 1 Kentucky Derby contender and is currently 3-1 odds to win the Kentucky Derby in Future Pools. After winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he took nearly four months off before returning to the track. His first start as a 3-year-old was an impressive victory in the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, where he dispatched the rest of the field with ease. He's the real deal.

If you're looking for a reason to play against him, it won't be easy. He has incredible versatility. He can win sitting near the lead and has demonstrated the ability to sit further back and close if the early pace is too fast. The latter is likely to be the case Saturday, so expect him to be sitting between fourth and sixth position early. He is breaking from post position No. 11, which is a disadvantage given the short run-up to the first turn at Gulfstream Park, but if he's the horse we all think he is, post position shouldn't matter. Additionally, his trainer, Todd Pletcher, is on a roll, having won Derby prep races each of the last two weeks with Tapit Trice and Kingsbarns.

Now, they run the races for a reason, as anything can happen, and if Forte stumbles, the horse that I believe is a prime candidate to upset him is Mage (8-1). He's a super young but supremely capable colt for trainer Gustavo Delgado. After breaking his maiden, he ran in the aforementioned Fountain of Youth in only his second career start. He had a troubled trip that day, facing traffic issues and being hooked wide. It was a learning experience, and he still managed to finish fourth. I would expect him to take a big step forward. Even if he doesn't beat Forte, I believe he's a great horse to use in exactas and trifectas. If he finishes second or third, he'll earn enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby and is a serious horse to consider moving forward.

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Beyond Forte and Mage, the picture gets murky. Fort Bragg (5-1) is a former Bob Baffert trainee now running for Tim Yakteen. He's coming off a fifth-place finish in the G2 San Felipe, and I have always considered him among the lower-tier of previous Baffert Derby contenders. He's not a bad horse, but at 5-1, I would rather use a horse like Mage with more upside. I'm also concerned that he'll get sucked into an early speed with horses like Mr. Peeks (30-1) and Mr. Ripple (30-1).

Another contender that I'm cooler on is Dubyuhnell (6-1), who has drawn the far outside No. 12 post and ran an absolute clunker last time out in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. He won the G2 Remsen two races ago, but I'm not particularly impressed with the horses coming out of the New York circuit this year.

Two horses to consider at bigger prices are Cyclone Mischief (8-1) and West Coast Cowboy (20-1). Cyclone Mischief had a nice bounce-back effort at the Fountain of Youth Stakes last time out while running third behind Rocket Can and Forte. If he runs his race, he can absolutely hit the board against this field, and he's versatile enough that he does not need the lead to be successful. West Coast Cowboy would need to get faster off his last effort in the Holy Bull Stakes, where he finished third, but that effort was his first time back from a layoff, and I'd expect to see a progression. His trainer, Saffie Joseph Jr., is one of the top trainers at Gulfstream Park and always seems to have a live runner on days like this.

Florida Derby Picks

• Win: Forte (4-5)
• Place: Mage (8-1)
• Show: West Coast Cowboy (20-1)

Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park

• Post time: 7:50 PM ET
• Distance: 1 1/8 miles
• Field size: 11

While the Florida Derby feels like a one-horse race, the Arkansas Derby is a very even field with several accomplished runners. Morning line favorite, Reincarnate (5-2), has every reason to improve off his third-place effort in the Rebel Stakes last time out. Everything went wrong for him that day. It was muddy conditions; he missed the break, was cut off coming down the home stretch, and still managed to hit the board. He's typically a more forwardly-placed horse, so if he gets away better and does not face as much traffic trouble, one should assume that he will improve.

While I like Reincarnate, the horse that I'm more intrigued by is Rocket Can (4-1), as he provides a little better value and has won a previous Kentucky Derby prep race. Back in February, he took the G3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park, where he was coming back from a three-month layoff and was forced to run wide around both turns. Despite the obstacles, he won easily. Last time out, he finished second to Forte in the G2 Fountain of Youth. He still had a wide trip but finished gamely and showed a significant progression from a speed standpoint. I would expect him to continue to progress for trainer Bill Mott and he will be sitting just behind the early pace of the front runners in a perfect position to pounce coming for home.

Two horses that I am less enthusiastic about are Angel of Empire (9-2) and Red Route One (3-1). Both are pace-dependent as they launch massive bids from the back of the pack and come charging late. In some of their previous races, this style was aided by the fact there were incredibly fast fractions early in the race, and they could pass tiring horses as they were coming home. That shouldn't be the case on Saturday. There will be some pace but expect honest yet reasonable fractions. Without a blistering pace to close into, they might get stuck behind too much traffic to make up any ground.

Speaking of pace, Two Eagles River (10-1) and Harlocap (15-1) should be the two horses out in front. I like both of them and don't expect them to be too aggressive toward each other, as neither horse needs the lead to be successful. I'm slightly concerned by the fact the trainer of Two Eagles River, Chris Hartman, is only 2-17 winning when taking a horse off of Lasix in a stakes race. All of Two Eagles Rivers efforts recently have come with Lasix.

As for Harlocap, I'm very high on him in this spot. He got sucked up into incredibly fast fractions last time out in the G2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds, where he faded back to sixth. However, if you take a closer look, he finished the best out of all the horses that were near the lead, as the top five finishers that day all sat seventh or further back during the early portion of the race. With a more reasonable pace and more time in the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen there is every reason to expect an improved effort.

Arkansas Picks

• Win: Rocket Can (4-1)
• Place: Reincarnate (5-2)
• Show: Harlocap (15-1)

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