Saturday Free Horse Racing Picks: Louisiana Derby, UAE Derby, and Jeff Ruby Stakes

Saturday Free Horse Racing Picks: Louisiana Derby, UAE Derby, and Jeff Ruby Stakes

The winners of the Louisiana Derby, UAE Derby, and Jeff Ruby Stakes will receive 100 points toward qualifying for the Kentucky Derby, which guarantees their inclusion in the starting gate. The second through fifth-place finishers in each race will receive 40, 30, 20, and 10 points, respectively.

UAE Derby at Meydan

• Post time: 9:50 AM ET
• Distance: 1 3/16 miles
• Field size: 13

The Kentucky Derby preps go to the Middle East. This is a loaded field with some of the best international 3-year-olds. Before you dismiss this race as a non-factor in the Kentucky Derby, remember that last year's second-place finisher, Summer is Tomorrow, is the horse that was responsible for the insanely fast fractions that led to the improbable Rich Strike victory. This year's UAE Derby field is stronger, deeper, and more talented than the one last year.

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The appropriate favorite is Aidan O'Brien's Cairo (5-2), as he's never finished worse than second in five career starts and won his last two races, both of which were against stakes competition. O'Brien, one of the world's best trainers, is best known for his outstanding turf horses, but Cairo is something a little different. He's run twice on a synthetic surface and won both times, including the last time in a Group 3 race. The question will be whether he can handle the deep Meydan dirt. O'Brien has brought his contingent over to Meydan a few days earlier than he normally does. It's a move that worked for him at this year's Breeders' Cup in Keeneland. However, beyond Cairo are a slew of high prices and very promising Japanese horses.

This week we saw Team Japan defeat Team U.S.A. in the World Baseball Classic. Get used to that dynamic on the racetrack as well. The Japanese have been building a monster horse racing program over the last 40 years, and it's gotten to the point where they are expected to win on days like today. Their lead contender is Dura Erede (6-1). Similar to Cairo, a question will be whether he likes the dirt. He's run on dirt once, winning a maiden effort, but has otherwise run on the turf. On the grass, he's been dominant and recently won the Group 1 Hopeful Stake at 10 furlongs, which proves he can do the distance. He is coming off a slight layoff, but he's dangerous and has to be considered a strong win contender with his class.

From a value standpoint, I'm interested in two other Japanese Runners. Perriere (15-1) is a pure dirt horse who has won three of his four career starts, including the Hyacinth Stakes, which took place last month in Japan. He's never run beyond a mile, but his running style of sitting mid-pack should make stretching out a little easier. The other horse I like is Derma Sotogake (10-1), who finished third last month in the Grade 3 Saudi Derby. That was his first race after a layoff and his first time out of the country. He also has more of a mid-pack running style and has done his best racing over a mile.

There is a very notable American in the form of Bob Baffert's entry, Worcester (4-1). The horse has yet to win a race despite being stakes placed. The issue is that he's likely going to be on, or near, the lead, and that might not be for the best. The track at Meydan is known for having a deep dirt surface that wears out front-end speed. As a result, I'll look elsewhere. Continuar (15-1) and Tall Boy (10-1) are other horses to consider. Continuar clearly wanted more ground after finishing fifth in the Saudi Derby. Meanwhile, Tall Boy, trained by Doug O'Neill, couldn't win in the United States before running lights out over this Meydan surface last month in a Group 3 race.

UAE Derby Picks

• Win: Dura Erede (6-1)
• Place: Cairo (5-2)
• Show: Perriere (15-1)

Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds

• Post time: 6:42 PM ET
• Distance: 1 3/16 miles
• Field size: 12

This year's Louisiana Derby boasts a strong morning line favorite and a slew of ascending challengers. Instant Coffee was installed as the 2-1 favorite, and it's hard to argue with the logic. He's won his last two races, both graded stakes, and the horses he beat on those occasions have come back to win races of their own over the last two months. He's not a flashy horse, and he typically grinds away his competition. The added distance should be to his benefit. However, there are two significant factors working against him. First, since he is a closer, he relies on a fast pace up front. This allows him to pass horses who are fatiguing late in the race. He's gotten very aggressive fractions the last two times out, but there is not likely to be a strong pace this time around. Second, this is a large field. The only time in his career he's gotten into trouble was in a comparably sized field where he gives himself too much work. It's easy to weave through traffic when there are six or seven other horses. It is another matter when there are 11. He's too good of a horse to run poorly, but I'm going to try to beat him.

The horse I'll use up top is Kingsbarns (6-1) for Todd Pletcher. He's running in only his third career race, but he's shown incredible promise, having won both of his first two starts. His pedigree suggests that he wants as much ground as you're willing to give him, and his running style should set up nicely for this race. He likes to be forwardly placed but typically runs at a target, meaning he'll let another horse take the lead while sitting third or fourth. On Saturday, expect Jace's Road (12-1) and Shopper's Revenge (12-1) to go out to the early lead and for Kingsbarns to sit off that pace. As a result, he should be in a perfect position when they turn for home.

An exciting value play is Cagliostro (12-1). He's also lightly raced (three career starts) but has shown great progression. He broke his maiden over the Fair Grounds surface two races ago and ran an impressive second last time against a salty allowance race. He was a handful to deal with when he was younger, but trainer Cherie DeVaux is as good as they get when it comes to getting a horse straightened out. A switch appears to have been flipped for Cagliostro, and I think we have yet to see the best from this horse.

North America's all-time winningest trainer, Steve Asmussen, is still searching for his first Kentucky Derby win. He does not have the strongest crop of contenders this year, but his entry Disarm (10-1), is a nice horse that could provide a decent value. He's running second back from a layoff and should like the track configuring at Fair Grounds with a long homestretch. Sun Thunder (5-1), who finished second in last month's Grade 2 Risen Star, is a lesser version of Instant Coffee. He's pace dependent, and it's hard to imagine Instant Coffee not dominating that Risen Star if he had run it.

Louisiana Derby Picks

• Win: Kingsbarns (6-1)
• Place: Cagliostro (12-1)
• Show: Instant Coffee (2-1)

Jeff Ruby Stakes at Turfway Park

• Post time: 6:25 PM ET
• Distance: 1 1/8 miles
• Field size: 12

The Jeff Ruby Stakes is the race that produced last year's Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike. In 2011 Animal Kingdom ran on the synthetic at Turfway Park before winning the bed of roses on the first Saturday in May. This year's edition of the race is quite strong and features several legitimate Derby contenders.

The morning line favorite is Major Dude (5-2), who has only ever run on grass. Turf horses traditionally transition to synthetic pretty well, but it's not an exact science. He also draws the inside rail, which is not where you want to be at Turfway Park. When the weather warms up, and there is rain, the inside rail can be a slog. There is rain expected at Turfway this weekend, and it's the warmest it has been all year. Major Dude is a very good horse, but this feels like trainer Todd Pletcher getting a little greedy while trying to get his owners a Derby horse.

While there should be an aggressive early pace, there are two horses that should be sitting off the lead that could provide greater value than Major Dude. Two Phil's (7-2) has run against the best horses on the Derby Trail from Forte to Instant Coffee to Confidence Game to Loggins. He is absolutely the class of the field. However, he has never tried running on synthetic before, and that can be a trickier transition for dirt horses. That said, his dam won her maiden on synthetic, and his sire has produced a good amount of synthetic winners. Additionally, his trainer, Larry Rivelli, made sure the horse worked over the track prior to the race. Two Phil is tactical with his speed and should sit just behind the early pace. He's shown the ability to hang with the best horses in his crop and has the stamina to keep running.

A horse that is very comfortable with synthetic is Wadsworth (8-1) for trainer Brad Cox. Cox, who trains Instant Coffee and about ten other Kentucky Derby contenders, moved this horse to the synthetic at Turfway two races ago, and the results were immediate. He's won both starts and did so in different ways. Two back, he wired the field, while last time out, he sat well back from the early pace before launching a bid late. Both he and Two Phil should get solid trips that will allow them to be there at the end.

With an aggressive pace, look for Battaglia Memorial winner Congruent (5-1) to make a furious bid late. This is a stronger field than what he faced last time out, but the pace scenario works out well for him, and he clearly enjoyed running on the synthetic in his first effort last race. Scoobie Quando (15-1) is another horse to consider using in deeper vertical exotics. He's answered the bell each time and faced some troubled trips lately, but still managed to get solid placement.

Jeff Ruby Stakes Picks

• Win: Two Phil's (7-2)
• Place: Wadsworth (8-1)
• Show: Congruent (5-1)

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