Wells Fargo Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Young, Kirk at Quail Hollow

Wells Fargo Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Young, Kirk at Quail Hollow

We are just a week away from the PGA Championship, but this tournament promises to be a special one in its own right, thanks to its Signature Event status. The Wells Fargo Championship has been a top event on the Tour for years, and we will be looking for a set of players who can start fast at this course.

With Rory McIlroy propping up the top of the field after Scottie Scheffler skipped the event, and Ludvig Aberg had to pull out, it is now down to the 4-time major champion to find his form before next week at Valhalla. That was the scene of his last major win, and he will be looking for a big week here, to prepare for another big week in Kentucky.

Whether he does that off the back of a fast start at the Wells Fargo Championship remains to be seen, but he is certainly the man to beat according to the First Round Leader odds.

2024 Wells Fargo Championship First Round Leader Strategy, Trends

This week, we only have 62 players in the field and no cut, so past renewals of this event won't necessarily help us.

We don't want to get too caught up in tee time biases this week, as the entire field will tee off between 11 am and 1:01 pm, a far smaller window.

Interestingly, every player to either lead or co-lead at this golf course since 2018 teed off in the afternoon, so there is no concern when picking even the latest starters here.

Here are the first round leaders from 2018 to 2023.

2023 - Tommy Fleetwood (12:32 pm, #1 Tee) - 65

2021 - Phil Mickelson (12:54 pm, #10 Tee) - 64

2019 - Rory McIlroy (12:50 pm, #1 Tee), Joel Dahmen (1:20 pm, #1 Tee) - 66

2018 - John Peterson (1:40 pm, #10 Tee) - 65

Wells Fargo Championship First Round Leader Trends

Multiple First-Round Leads in Past an Indicator - John Peterson had only led after round 1 on the Korn Ferry, before his day one lead here in 2018, but he had held three first-round leads at that level previously. Every other first round leader here had posted 2+ first-round leads on Tour, before leading here at Quail Hollow.

Weather Forecast at the Wells Fargo Championship

The weather looks fairly consistent on Thursday, but the wind gusts drop slightly from 12 pm to 2 pm. This could benefit early starters at the end of their round, and afternoon starters at the beginning, so it's a fairly balanced day weather-wise, overall.

Who in this Field Started Fast on Tour Last Season?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average in the 2022/23 PGA Tour season.)

• Adam Scott (2nd Overall in 2022/23 - Scoring Average 68.50 - Low Opening Round - 62 (Travelers Championship)
• Xander Schauffele (4th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 68.62) – Low Opening Round – 62 (US Open)
• Viktor Hovland (5th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 68.86) – Low Opening Round – 64 (RBC Heritage)
• Max Homa (8th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 69.04) – Low Opening Round – 64 (Genesis Invitational)
• Stephan Jaeger (10th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 69.16) – Low Opening Round – 65 (Mexico Open)

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1?

A 66 will put you in a good position this week, but we imagine a 65 is likely required to lead. With the added length again this year, it is tough to see a 64 like we got from Mickelson in 2021, so a 65 is the target.

The Favorites in the Wells Fargo First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market at the 2024 RBC Heritage

• Rory McIlroy +1600
• Xander Schauffele +1800
• Patrick Cantlay +2500
• Wyndham Clark +2500
• Collin Morikawa +3300
• Justin Thomas +3300

2024 Wells Fargo Championship First Round Leader Picks

Here are my First Round Leader selections for the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship.

Cameron Young +3500 (BetRivers)

Cam Young is still looking for his first win on the PGA Tour, but one thing he has been able to do throughout his career is lead after round one.

Young has held two first round leads on the Korn Ferry Tour, two on the PGA Tour, one on the DP World Tour, and another at the British Open. No matter where he plays and at what level, Cam Young has started fast, and he's doing so again of late.

In his past two starts, Young has sat 9th and 10th after the opening round of the week, and he can get off to a quick start here as well.

He played here last year and failed to break 70, but he's the type that can find a low one at any point, and as he narrowly missed out on my outright card, I will play him here instead.

Chris Kirk +5500 (BetRivers)

Chris Kirk has been playing solid golf again in recent weeks, finishing 26th at the Players Championship, 16th at The Masters, and 10th at the RBC Heritage last month, so he's in good shape.

Kirk played here 12 months ago, finishing in 56th place, but he opened with a round of 67 to sit in 7th place at the end of play on Thursday.

He might not be flying out of the gates this season, but he's been 12th and 26th in round 1 in recent starts, and now is the time for him to contend for the top spot at the end of play Thursday.

9 times in his career Chris Kirk has led after round 1, with 7 of them coming on the PGA Tour, and two of those have come since the beginning of 2022. Based on recent form, he's due one this season.

Since joining the PGA Tour, Kirk has held the first round lead in 2014 (twice), 2016, 2017, 2018, 2022, and 2023, so he's let's find another one in 2024.

Kirk is teeing off at 12:28 pm from the 10th tee and will be playing with Taylor Moore and Tommy Fleetwood.

Brendon Todd +7000 (FanDuel)

Brendon Todd isn't the prototypical player you expect to perform well at Quail Hollow, given his lack of pop off the tee, but he is more than capable of golfing his ball around this course.

In his last two starts here, Todd has finished 18th and 8th, sitting 8th after round 1 three years ago, and adding a third-round 65 here last year.

In his last three starts on the PGA Tour, Todd has sat 6th, 2nd, and 26th after round 1 and with opening rounds of 67 at the Valspar, and a 66 at the Texas Open, Todd is clearly ready to start fast this week.

Todd has been the co-leader on three occasions at the end of round 1, and now is the time for him to claim a solo lead on Thursday finally.