Wells Fargo Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on An, Bhatia in Charlotte

Wells Fargo Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on An, Bhatia in Charlotte

These Signature Events may need a rethink, with the schedule leaving something to be desired, but Quail Hollow should be a good warm-up for the 2024 PGA Championship next week.

The Wells Fargo Championship has always been an integral part of the PGA Tour since the first renewal of the then-named Wachovia Championship in 2003. Stars such as Anthony Kim, Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Max Homa, and Wyndham Clark have all enjoyed breakthrough wins at this event, and it is a tournament that has been a good predictor of future major champions.

Of the last five course winners, Max Homa is the only player not to win a major, and he is undoubtedly considered a huge contender for one in the future. Brian Harman elevated his career with a win here, his second on Tour and Wyndham Clark picked up his maiden trophy at this course last year. Both were major winners in 2023, while Jason Day and Rory McIlroy are two of the biggest names in golf in recent years.

This course demands elite play off the tee, some incredible patience, and some major-esque play, so look for those types of players this week.

We are here to look at the best sleepers for this event this week, so we may not be able to put forward major winners in waiting, but we will certainly look for those with a matching skillset to this course.

Let's break down what is needed to win this event, below.

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the Wells Fargo Championship, check out the new DraftKings Sportsbook promotion, where new users can claim an epic bonus betting on golf this week. With the DraftKings promo code, you can bet $5 on any outright of your choice, and get $200 in bonus bets, meaning you win no matter what.

What Skill Set is Required to Win the Wells Fargo Championship?

Long drivers who have a strong all-round game are going to be the flavor of the week here, given the length of this beast of a golf course. If you do want to back a player who is shorter off the tee, they will need to make up for it with great long iron play, so look into that area of their game.

SG Tee to Green: No surprise, players with a great all-round game succeed here, and the past five winners have ranked inside the top 17 for Tee to Green. Homa, who ranked 17th in 2022 did so on a different golf course, meaning the last four course winners ranked inside the top 12 for this stat.

Bermuda Putting: New Bermuda greens have been laid at Quail Hollow following the conclusion of the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship. These will be overseeded with Poa Trivials, so keep an eye on putters who like that mix of green surfaces.

Long Iron Play: In terms of approaches this week, almost 60% of a player's shots are going to come from 150 yards and beyond, with the highest concentration coming from the 175-200-yard range. Look for players who excel from 150-175, 175-200, and 200-225 yards.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the Wells Fargo Championship

Let's look at the last 10 winners of this event to assess whether sleepers can win this event. Note that the 2022 and 2017 renewals were held at different courses, as Quail Hollow hosted the PGA Championship and Presidents Cup in those years respectively.

2023 - Wyndham Clark (+8000)

2022 - Max Homa (+4000)

2021 - Rory McIlroy (+1800)

2019 - Max Homa (+50000)

2018 - Jason Day (+2000)

2017 - Brian Harman (+8000)

2016 - James Hahn (+50000)

2015 - Rory McIlroy (+350)

2014 - J.B. Holmes (+6600)

2013 - Derek Ernst (+50000)

We have had some ridiculously priced winners here, with Derek Ernst, James Hahn, and Max Homa all winning at 500-1. Major winners, Brian Harman and Wyndham Clark both won at 80-1 as well, albeit Harman did it at another course. On the flip side, Rory McIlroy has won as the favorite, and Day and Rory have also won at shorter prices in recent seasons. With it being a signature event, we might expect a shorter-priced winner this week, but there is plenty of hope from the list of winners to suggest the winner might be +4000 and bigger this week, which suits us.

Wells Fargo Championship Betting Trends

We can learn plenty from tournaments here in the past, and let's see if the last 11 winners have thrown anything up in common in terms of betting.

Younger Players Prosper - 10 of the last 11 winners of this tournament were 32 or younger when winning here. James Hahn is the oldest winner here in recent years, at 34.

Winning Form Integral - 8 of the last 10 course winners here had already racked up two career wins as a professional before winning here. Derek Ernst and Wyndham Clark were the exceptions. A fair few had only one at lower levels, but still had experience of getting over the line.

Top 10s on the Season - 10 of the last 11 winners had at least one top 10 finish on the season before winning here. Trendbuster, Derek Ernst is the only exception again. 6 of the last 11 winners had finished top 10 on 2+ occasions already that season.

Course Correlation - Look at Riviera for Inspiration

James Hahn and Max Homa are two of the winners that have won here and at Riviera, and both were 500-1 to win here the week they won. That's a good sign, as are J. B. Holmes' wins at both.

Wyndham Clark has a good record at Riviera, including a Top 8 finish, and that is another sign that we can rely on good performances there as a potential indicator for success here at Quail Hollow.

Sleeper and Value Picks for the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship

Here are my four selections for the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship.

Byeong Hun An +4500 (DraftKings)

I might be late to the Benny An party, but I have been waiting for the right number and this is it.

Sure, his course history will put people off, but An has been very good in 2024, and he was finally rewarded with his best finish of the season when 4th last week in Texas.

We are looking for a long driver of the golf ball, who also excels with his long irons, and not many fit that bill better than An, especially not at 40-1 and deeper.

An ranks 5th on Tour for Driving Distance, 7th in Total Driving, and thanks to ranking 11th in Greens in Regulation, also ranks 3rd in Ball Striking overall.

In addition to excelling off the tee, Benny is an extremely useful long-iron player, as he ranks 7th from 175-200 yards, 18th from 200-225 yards, and 29th in 150-175 yards, which means he should be accurate from every part of the course.

He must overcome his short-game woes to finally get the win his ball-striking deserves, but An finally had a decent putting week in Texas, and there's a slight hope that improvement continues this week.

An finished 16th at Riviera earlier this season, and he was inside the top 10 after 36 holes at this course at the 2017 PGA Championship, before falling away over the weekend, so at his best, he's capable of competing here.

Akshay Bhatia +5000 (DraftKings)

2024 has been a fruitful year for Akshay Bhatia, who is already ahead of his peers at the age of 22. Already a two-time winner, thanks to his win at the Valero Texas Open, the American is enjoying a coming-out party, at a win here is the next step.

Many will look at Bhatia as a future major winner, and a win at this course is the perfect platform based on recent history.

Bhatia is another player who excels off the tee, ranking 34th Off the Tee, 13th SG Tee to Green, and 19th in Total Driving. He's not the longest, but he's accurate, and that is also the case with his iron play.

Looking at the yardage buckets we flagged above, Bhatia ranks 12th from 150-175 yards, and 19th from 175-200 yards, and while he's a bit up and down from further away, I trust his approach play.

17th, 11th, 35th, and 18th either side of his win at the Valero Texas Open suggests Bhatia has found a very steady floor, and this is the elite company he will need to start winning in, to get to the next level.

Wyndham Clark's record here was MC-43 before winning here last year... Bhatia's record at this course reads MC-43... It's just a pointless coincidence, but it's fun to mention...

Sungjae Im +5000 (BetRivers)

I am taking a swing on Sungjae Im, who has shown some signs in recent weeks, including a win back home.

Im finished 8th in this event last year and was 31st before that, so he's capable of getting around Quail Hollow, despite his lack of punch off the tee. In the past, he would have done that with his long iron play, and while he's been off with almost every facet of his game in recent months, his last two starts suggest change is coming.

Sungjae finished T12 at the RBC Heritage before winning in Korea last time out, and if he's getting back to something like his best, his price looks quite appealing.

I'll take a chance on a high-level talent, who looks to be in better shape coming into this event, especially given his course history.

Lucas Glover +10000 (BetMGM)

Lucas Glover has played in 11 events this season and he has gained on approach in 10 of them, which is encouraging.

Three of his last four starts have yielded top-25 finishes, including a 20th-place finish at Augusta, which was his joint-best finish in that particular major.

Glover has won at this course and has also finished 2nd and 8th here as well, so there is every reason to expect another big performance this week.

6th, 18th, and 19th in his last three starts in terms of SG Approach, Glover has certainly come to the fore in recent weeks with his irons, and that should stand him in good stead this week.

Despite a rocky start to the season, Glover ranks 20th from 150-175 yards and 38th from 175-200 yards, so he's hitting his long irons adequetly as well.