CJ Cup Byron Nelson Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Hughes, Power in Texas

CJ Cup Byron Nelson Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Hughes, Power in Texas

The PGA Tour is back in Texas again, this time for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. The field is led by Texas native, Jordan Spieth and defending champion, Jason Day, but who can come from the pack and topple both of these players this week?

After a sustained period of longshot winners, the PGA Tour has returned to form, with Scottie Scheffler winning four times this season.

The Byron Nelson has been held at TPC Craig Ranch since 2021, so we have three years of course form to go by, and that is enough to suggest a longshot winner can get the job done here.

K.H. Lee won this event back to back in 2021 and 2022, at odds of 200-1 and 125-1, before Jason Day won at 18-1 last week.

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What Skill Set is Required to Win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson?

We have three years of course form to go by, so we have a good idea of what is required from a potential winner this week.

SG Approach - KH Lee ranked 8th and 3rd in SG Approach the two times he won here, and Jason Day ranked 3rd, so it is essential to hit your irons and wedges well this week. The winner ranked 1st, 2nd, and 5th in Tee to Green as well. Jason Day ranked 3rd in Proximity to the Hole and Lee ranked 4th in that same category in his first win here as well.

Birdie Average - You are going to need to surpass the -20 mark this week to win, unless the weather gets the better of this tournament, so finding a player who is making plenty of birdies this season will be key. You are not looking for a solid player this week, you need someone who can shoot the lights out. A volatile player could work here, based on KH Lee's winning form.

Bentgrass Greens - A ton of putts need to be holed by any winner here, so previous form when putting on Bentgrass greens would certainly be advantageous.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the Byron Nelson?

The PGA Tour has been to this course three times for the Byron Nelson, and KH Lee has won at 200-1 and 125-1. Sure, Jason Day won at 18-1 last year, but Lee has shown that on a birdie-fest, anyone can come through the pack.

AT&T Byron Nelson Betting Trends

With only three years of course form to go by, and two renewals won by the same player, I am not sure there is anything to take away from this tournament in the past just yet.

Correlating Course to Consider

It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, apart from maybe the fact you have plenty of short approaches, and wind can come into play, but there has definitely been too much crossover between this event and the Cognizant Classic (formerly the Honda Classic) in the three years they have played this event at TPC Craig Ranch.

Players to have played well at the Cognizant/Honda Classic and the Byron Nelson:

KH Lee - Two-time winner here, two top 7s at the Honda Classic

Austin Eckroat - 2nd here, Won the Cognizant Classic this year

CT Pan - 2nd here, 3rd, 16th, and 17th at the Honda Classic

Ryan Palmer - 5th and 8th here, Playoff Loser, and 4th at the Honda Classic

Adam Scott - 8th here, won the Honda Classic

Daniel Berger - 3rd here, Playoff Loser at the Honda Classic

Sam Burns - 2nd here, 8th at the Honda Classic

Jhonnatan Vegas - 9th here, 4th and 12th at the Honda Classic Charl Schwartzel - 3rd here, 5th at the Honda Classic

Bronson Burgoon - 13th here and 14th at the Honda Classic. As a player lacking a lot of top finishes, it's helpful for this correlation that he's played well at both.

Peter Malnati - Finished T9 in both events

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson

Here are my picks at +4000 and bigger for the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson.

Keith Mitchell +4000 (BetMGM)

I already liked Keith Mitchell's chances this week, based on his elite ball-striking this season, but when I discovered what I think is a link between this and the Honda Classic, I felt even better.

Mitchell's win at the Honda remains his only win on the PGA Tour, but he's shown some good signs in Texas in the past, finishing T3 in this event at a different course, as well as finishing 6th and 9th in the Houston Open and 14th in the Texas Open.

The Georgia alum ranks 6th in SG Off the Tee, 11th in SG Approach, and 7th in SG Tee to Green overall this season. You have to go back to the Sony Open in January for the last time Mitchell failed to gain strokes with his irons, and he's gained off the tee in every start this year, so he's hitting the ball as well as anyone.

The problem for Mitchell is his putting, and while there's no certainty that will be any better this week, he can certainly get hot at times with the flat stick, and he putted decently here when 26th on debut at this golf course.

Mitchell ranks 11th in Proximity to the Hole, 32nd in Birdie Average, and 22nd in Birdie or Better Percentage, so I trust him to set himself up enough here, to give him a shot at contending.

He does tend to thrive when the conditions are tougher, but he also shot -24 when 9th at the Amex earlier in the year, so in his form, I'll take a shot on him here.

Mackenzie Hughes +4500 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes is in good form, making five cuts in a row, and finishing 3rd and 14th in back-to-back starts during that run. He perhaps should have won the Valspar when 3rd, or at least been more of a threat on Sunday, but I think he can put things right here.

Both of Hughes' wins on Tour have come via a -17 winning score, which suggests he's comfortable when the winning score is around -20, and with the way he's putted in his last three events, I am confident he can get on a roll again this week.

The Canadian missed the cut on debut here two years ago, despite sitting 25th after round 1, but he came back last year and finished 14th, with a second round 64 adding to bookend rounds of 65 on the week. He was 2nd going into Saturday, but a 3rd round 73 cost him a shot at winning, a position I hope he will play better from this time around, should he get the chance.

His iron play has been good in recent weeks, barring a disappointing week at the RBC Heritage, and that was really the only missing component from his top-15 finish here last year.

He's a two-time winner on Tour and one who is happy to mix it in these birdie fests, so I am going to take a shot on Hughes again this week. Also, if there is anything in that Honda Classic crossover, he has been 2nd there in the past.

Seamus Power +6000 (bet365)

Seamus Power has found some form again on the PGA Tour, and now he returns to a course and event that suits his game, so I am excited to bet him at 60-1 to win this week.

The clear improvement has come in his iron play, and last time out the Heritage was his best SG Approach performance over four rounds since the first week of 2023, so he's clearly found something. It wasn't a flash in the pan either, as he had gained strokes in five straight events.

In his three starts here, Power has finished 9th, 17th, and 19th, and I think he can post a career-best finish here and compete for the title at TPC Craig Ranch this week.

2nd after round 1, 7th after round 3 and finally finishing 12th at the Heritage was huge, as that was a stacked field and one that took a lot more beating than this. Sure, he didn't contend in the end, but he played extremely well, and it will be good to see what he goes with that form on a course he enjoys.

David Skinns +20000 (FanDuel)

David Skinns has flashed some form of late, finishing 4th at the Cognizant Classic, which plays perfectly into that potential correlation, but also when finishing 7th at the Houston Open, another Texas event. He was the 54-hole leader on both occasions, and while he wasn't able to get over the line, clearly there is some form there, and he will have learned a lot from both experiences.

The Englishman is obviously a career journeyman, but he's finally settling into life on the big stage, making a better go of it than he did during his rookie season in 2021. He played the Zurich Classic with fellow Englishman, Callum Tarren last week, and the pair had a chance of contending, but faded on the final day, finishing 11th.

In his one and only start at TPC Craig Ranch, Skinns was the 36-hole leader in 2022, opening with rounds of 66 and 63, and while he wasn't built to handle the pressure of what that might have meant for his career then, he's in a better situation now.

Skinns has won three times on the Korn Ferry Tour so does have what it takes to win, we just need to see if at 41, he still has it in him to win at this level for the first time, or whether it is a step too far.

He will likely get it done with his short game if he is to succeed here, but at the odds, I will just take a shot on a guy who is playing the best golf of his career.