RBC Heritage Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Lowry, Svensson at Hilton Head

RBC Heritage Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Lowry, Svensson at Hilton Head

The RBC Heritage is an exciting event on the PGA Tour, and now it has Signature Event status, the stakes are even higher.

Some will note that this event suffers from a bit of a Masters hangover, and that is completely fair, but it doesn't detract from what is a fun event on TOUR. Steeped in history, Hilton Head has provided an excellent arena for one of the most popular regular events of the year, and with 55 years' worth of visits to this course, we know what to expect.

This will be a far more relaxed event than last week, as displayed by winning scores of -17, -13, -19, and -22 over the past four years. Now with the best in the world teeing it up in this field, the quality will continue to rise.

Scottie Scheffler and Ludvig Aberg will be forgiven if they were to have a down week here given their involvement in last night's final round, but for players like Rory McIlroy and Patrick Cantlay, this is a big opportunity to kick-start their PGA Tour season.

Will it pay to oppose those challenging last week, or do recent winners suggest we might be looking for good play from last week as a clue? Let's dig into the data and form sheets to find out.

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What Skill Set is Required to Win the RBC Heritage?

Below, you will find the standout statistics required to succeed on the Harbour Town Golf Links at Hilton Head Island. Most will know this is a second-shot course, but aside from Approach, what else do players need to do well?

SG Approach - Each of the last five winners here have ranked inside the top 18 for SG Approach the week they won, with four of them ranking inside the top 10. That alone is not enough, but it's where you need to start. The leader for SG Approach on the week hasn't finished outside the top 15 since 2019, and Rahm's 15th was the only time the Approach leader finished outside the top 10, and he was following up his Masters success a week prior.

Scrambling - Each of the last five winners of the RBC Heritage have ranked 16th or better in Scrambling the week they won here, with Matthew Fitzpatrick and Stewart Cink both ranking 4th and Jordan Spieth 6th, showing an increasing trend in performance around the greens in recent years. Four of these five winners have ranked inside the top 10 for SG Around the Green, with Simpdon the outlier, ranking 33rd. You are going to miss greens here, it is how you respond that is important.

Course History - Course history is generally a good indicator here, as the same players tend to repeat form here, so this is certainly an event where you will want to look at previous starts at Hilton Head.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the RBC Heritage?

Here are the odds for the last 10 winners at the RBC Heritage

2023 - Matt Fitzpatrick (+2800)

2022 - Jordan Spieth (+4000)

2021 - Stewart Cink (+12500)

2020 - Webb Simpson (+3000)

2019 - C.T. Pan (+16000)

2018 - Satoshi Kodaira (+25000)

2017 - Wesley Bryan (+8000)

2016 - Branden Grace (+4000)

2015 - Jim Furyk (+2500)

2014 - Matt Kuchar (+1800)

Matt Kuchar and Jim Furyk are the two shortest-priced winners here since 2014, and Fitzpatrick was another winner that came in under 30-1 last year. We are likely to see shorter-priced winners here over the next few years if this remains a Signature Event, but this event provides players with all skill sets a chance to win and the history of long-priced winners gives us hope.

RBC Heritage Betting Trends

Let's look at the last 12 years here to see what trends have emerged when it comes to course winners.

Experience Key - 10 of the last 12 winners had made 150 career starts already, which suggests we are looking for someone with some experience under their belt.

Winners Get the Job Done at the Heritage - Each of the last 12 winners had won at some level before winning this famous event. Branden Grace, Wesley Bryan, Satoshi Kodaira, and C.T. Pan made it four winners in a row, who were picking up their first PGA Tour win. Grace however had won on the DP World Tour that year, which was his 7th win at that level. Wesley Bryan was coming off a three-win season on the Korn Ferry Tour, Satoshi Kodaira had won three times in Japan, and C.T. Pan, perhaps the most exposed, had at least won twice in Canada. You don't want to figure out how to win as a professional at Harbour Town.

Course Start Key - 10 of the last 12 RBC Heritage Winners had already played this event once, and 8 of them had played here three times or more. 8 of the 12 winners had already posted a top 10 at the course.

Correlating Courses to Consider

The following courses are all worth considering as potential correlations and may help you with picks this week.

RSM Classic - Kevin Kisner has won the RSM Classic but has also been a playoff loser both there and on this course. Webb Simpson also lost two playoffs at the RSM and one here, before winning here in 2020. The first three RSM Classic winners had also all shown something at this event in the past, so in an event that is still relatively young, we have seen it provide plenty of crossover. Considering it's only a 2-hour drive between the two courses, it is perhaps not a surprise.

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 RBC Heritage

Here are my picks at +4000 and bigger for the 2024 RBC Heritage.

Shane Lowry +4500 (FanDuel)

I wasn't going to do this again, but I can't pass up Shane Lowry at virtually the same price as he was to win The Masters a week ago, especially after he led the field in SG Approach.

Unfortunately, the brilliance of the Irishman's irons was not matched by his putter, as he ranked 60th in the field in that department, and it is that which ultimately cost him any chance of further Augusta success.

Still, the fundamentals that make Lowry brilliant are still there, and if he can find anything in his putting stroke this week, he has half a chance.

Lowry has now ranked 2nd, 7th, 13th, 14th, and 1st in his last five starts in SG Approach, and if he can just putt like he did in Florida, he can contend here for a third time. He has already finished 3rd here twice, the first time in 2019 when he was the 36-hole leader and then again two years ago when he was 2nd going into the final round. One back going into Sunday on both occasions, Lowry knows what it is like to be in the heat of the battle here, and his putter has generally held up on each visit here.

He has gained strokes putting here in all but one visit, and that was last year when he finished 72nd in SG Putting. If we get a repeat of last year, then we are in trouble, but I will take a shot on him at the number.

Cam Davis +6600 (BetMGM)

Probably a player you are going to see on most betting cards, and to be honest whenever I feel like he's going to play well, he normally disappoints, but I can't pass up on the obvious case of Cam Davis this week.

Davis has now finished 21st or better in five of his past six starts, and while there have been no top 10s in that time, he came awfully close last week at Augusta. The Australian finished T12 last week, securing a spot at Augusta in 2025, and further validating an improved run of form. He was inside the top 6 for each of the first three rounds last week, and while that might be indicative of his career so far, this is one course I am willing to give him another go on.

Two of his top 10 best finishes (according to OWGR) have come at this course, when he finished T3 in 2022, and T7 last year. The first effort was all down to a final round 63, but it was a far steadier climb, as he bounced back from a relatively slow start, with rounds of 67-66-68 to post another top 10 here. Even on debut when he was 25th, the Aussie posted three sub-70 rounds, so he knows how to get it around this course.

Davis led the field in Approach at Pebble Beach, and he ranked 6th in the same category at Bay Hill as well. He then ranked 12th in SG Approach last week to drive him to that 12th-place finish, and while he struggled a bit around the greens, the iron play and putting were both there which is huge.

He is a winner on Tour (2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic) and he's shown he can mix it at this level, finishing 4th in the PGA Championship, 6th at The Players, and 12th last week at Augusta, so the stronger field doesn't phase me. If anything, it seems like he needs it up his game. He ticks the boxes with form at all the right courses, and he should give us a run over the weekend.

Taylor Moore +7000 (FanDuel)

Taylor Moore has not missed a cut since last year's Open Championship, a run of 15 straight weekends played. That consistency has now turned into decent results, as he finished T12 at the Valspar, where he was the defending champion, 2nd at the Texas Children's Houston Open, where he finished one shot shy of Stephan Jaeger, and then an always-there top 20 last week at Augusta.

Moore was inside the top 30 all last week at Augusta, and his opening round of 71 and closing 70, on a course that wasn't giving up much, were both really encouraging.

The only concern right now is how he's getting the job done, as it was through solid off the tee and around the green play, rather than his irons that led to his success. It was also his short game that carried him in Houston, so we will need him to hit his irons like he did at the Valspar if he is to pick up a 2nd Tour win this week.

Moore has already played some correlating course nicely, finishing 5th at the FedEx St Jude Championship, 8th at the RSM Classic, and with two top 6 finishes at the Rocket Mortgage, where Cam Davis picked up his sole PGA Tour win, there might be some potential crossover there as well. Patrick Cantlay has finished 2nd at both events, Cam Young has been 2nd there, and 3rd here, Bryson DeChambeau has won the Rocket Mortgage and finished 3rd here, matching Cam Davis' output, and Troy Merritt who was 2nd behind Davis at the Rocket Mortgage has also finished 3rd here in the past. Kevin Kisner also has top 3 finishes in both events.

Keegan Bradley +10000

The last time Keegan Bradley played a signature event after a major he won... That was when he picked up the 2023 Travelers Championship a week after missing the cut at the U.S. Open, and this time around, the major performance was more encouraging.

In fact, Bradley's T22 finish last week at Augusta matched his previous best at the course (2015), and it's that fact and the fact that he ranked 6th in Approach last week, his best approach week since his win at the Travelers, that has got my attention.

It's been a reasonably lean season for Bradley so far, but he did have a chance to win at the 2024 Sony Open, which he lost in a playoff, and that was just one of four weeks where he gained strokes with the putter this season.

Bradley has made 9 starts this season. On the four occasions where he has gained strokes putting he has finished T2, T11, T36, and T22. On the five occasions he's lost strokes putting, he's missed three cuts, and twice finished outside the top 40. It is reasonable then to suggest that he lives and dies by his putting performances this season, and the reason I am encouraged by that is his history here. Keegan has only played this event three times, and he's never finished better than T44, but he's gained strokes putting each time he's played here, and shown encouraging signs in isolation.

After opening with a 73 last year, Bradley shot 67-64 to climb from 109th to 16th in two rounds, and despite falling away on Sunday, he must surely be encouraged by that. It was a similar story in 2017, when he essentially ruined his week on Thursday, opening with a 75, before shooting middle rounds of 66-68, before again having a shocking Sunday.

Bradley has had two six-year breaks from this course, but now plays it back-to-back for the first time, and I think he can reverse his fortunes here at a big number.

Adam Svensson +20000 (BetMGM)

The first name that came to mind when I wrote about the RSM Classic link was Adam Svensson, and a deeper dive suggests we should be more than interested in, at a HUGE number.

Sure, Svensson has struggled for the most part this season, but he's shown flashes of brilliance as well. A third-round 64 at the Sony Open showed that if the course suits he can make a run, and his 10th at Riviera, which preceded three missed cuts was a good sign as well.

It's his last three starts though where things are seemingly looking up for the Canadian. On paper, he's finished 49th, 57th, and 51st, but in his head, I am sure he's already feeling a lot better about his game. When 49th at the Valspar he was 3rd after round 1 and 8th after round 3 when 57th at the Houston Open, he was 6th after round 1 and 22nd going into the final day, and last time out at the Texas Open he opened with a 69 to sit 8th and closed with a 67 to fight his way back away from the bottom of the post-cut leaderboard.

Behind this run of improved form is an iron game that is clearly trending, as he's improved in that category week-on-week, and while he's still not gained strokes on the green, the same came to be said for his putting, as he improves each week there as well.

His recent form shows he's enjoying 2 of his 4 rounds every week, and that was the case here in 2022 as well, as he opened with a 66 to sit 3rd after round 1, and posted another round of 67 on Saturday, to bounce back from a poor Friday. He was 13th going into Sunday on debut, and while he fell away in the final round, the signs were there, that this course could be up his street. Solid rather than spectacular again last year here, the Canadian did at least follow up with another round of 67, and that's now three rounds of 67 or better here in eight.

Considering he's won and finished 5th at the RSM Classic, and has T7 finishes at both the Sony Open and the Wyndham, we shouldn't be surprised he likes it here.