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The Duke Blue Devils will try to play spoiler in the Sweet 16 when they take on the Houston Cougars. Can Shaedon Sharpe and the Cougars wear down the Blue Devils with physicality on Friday night? Joey Ruiz provides his best bet in Duke vs. Houston.
ANALYSIS

Duke vs. Houston Prediction: Can Shaedon Sharpe, Cougars Out-Muscle Blue Devils in Sweet 16?

Houston had a big-time scare in the round of 32 as they nearly lost in overtime to Texas A&M after four of their five starters fouled out as they blew a 10 point lead with under 2 minutes in regulation. Can they bounce back against Duke? Let’s break it down.

Duke vs. Houston DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH

  • Date: March 29, 2024
  • Start Time: 9:39 p.m. ET
  • Where to Watch: CBS

Duke vs. Houston ODDS

  • Spread: Duke +4.5 (-108), Houston -4.5 (-110)
  • Total Odds: O 134.5 (-110), U 134.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline Odds: Duke (+165), Houston (-200)

Duke vs. Houston Prediction

Houston has been one of my favorite teams all season. I believe Kelvin Sampson is one of the best coaches in college basketball at getting the most out of his players with less talent than nearly every other big-time program. There aren’t many four and five star recruits on this Houston team that get a lot of run, but make no mistake, they are an elite team.

Houston blew out Longwood in the Round of 64 but got a huge scare from Texas A&M as they blew a 10 point lead at the end of regulation, and nearly lost in overtime as they were actually relying on a walk-on to make free throws in crunch time as four of their five starters had fouled out. Houston’s depth has been their biggest issue down the stretch this season as they run an extremely tight, six or seven man rotation, and Sampson rarely deviates from this.

Houston also plays more physical than nearly every team in the country led by Shaedon Sharpe. Fouling will be a huge concern for this Cougars team, but I am expecting a strong bounce back game from them. The Cougars inexplicably turned the ball over multiple times in the final minute of that Texas A&M game, and missed multiple key free throws down the stretch to allow the Aggies to force overtime at the end of regulation. I do not expect that type of meltdown to happen again under the tutelage of Sampson and if Houston shoots as well as they did against Texas A&M, it’s going to be a long day for Duke.

Duke, much like NC State, has had a fairly easy road to get to the Sweet 16. They played a Vermont team who arrived off of an extremely weak schedule in conference, and then played JMU. I have to give credit to JMU for how they played during the regular season as they went 31-3, but it was clear as soon as the ball tipped that they did not have the same talent as Duke. They did not belong on the same court as them as the Blue Devils blew them out from the jump.

Duke has not really been challenged at this point, and I think that may be an issue for them in a game that should be a hard fought, hard-nosed battle for 40 minutes against this Houston team who is one of the more physical teams in the nation. Houston almost got that monkey off their back with that close win over Texas A&M as they narrowly escaped a disaster with an overtime win.

That win over Texas A&M in my opinion took a lot of pressure off Houston as I believe people have written them off after that poor performance. I am expecting a big-time bounce back game from the Cougars, as I think they’re defense will stifle Duke and they should have a huge edge in the rebound department. With that being said, I am rolling with Houston -4 at -110 odds for 1.5 units as one of my most confident college basketball plays of the day for tonight’s action.

Duke vs. Houston Pick

Pick: Houston -4 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

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Article Author

NCAABNBAMLB

Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.

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