Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Prop Picks: Will Shohei Ohtani Shine in NL West Clash?
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Prop Picks: Will Shohei Ohtani Shine in NL West Clash?
The last game on the MLB slate tonight features the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants squaring off in game one of their weekend series from Oracle Park. The Dodgers lead the season series 5–1 and have dominated the Giants as of late.
The Dodgers are in first place in the NL West with a record of 51–31 and are 8–2 in their last 10 games, riding a four-game winning streak. The Giants are under .500 at 39–43 and are 4–6 in their last 10 as they sit in fourth place in the NL West. What should we expect in tonight’s game?
Dodgers vs. Giants DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: June 28, 2024
- Start Time: 10:15 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction
The bet I’m looking at for tonight‘s game is on Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani has had a very nice year in his first season in the LA blue, as he is second in the MLB in batting average (.322), third in home runs (25), fifth in RBIs (61), and second in OPS (1.045). While Ohtani has been unable to pitch due to his lingering injury, he has more than made up for it with his presence at the plate. Ohtani has been red-hot as of late, as he has hit a home run in five of his last six games and now has 11 home runs in 23 games in June. While his home run odds have been lingering in the low +200s up to the high and mid 200s over the last week or so, his home run line has rocketed up to +500 tonight. The reason for this odd movement on his home run line is due to two things; Logan Webb and Oracle Park. Logan Webb has the 4th-lowest HR/9 among starting pitchers in 2024 with over 50 innings pitched. He has given up just five home runs in 105.1 innings this year. He is not an easy guy to hit it out of the park on, which is one factor for the high odds on Ohtani‘s home run line tonight. The other is the ballpark. Oracle Park has never been an easy place to hit a home run. Out of 30 ballparks, it is ranked 29th for home run environment on Ballpark Pal. The high walls, ballpark measurements, and weather in the Bay Area make it a tough spot to hit a homer. Still, this is Shohei Ohtani we are talking about.
Shohei Ohtani is ranking in the 100th percentile for average exit velocity this season and is also in the 100th percentile in hard-hit percentage. He is in the 99th percentile of barrel percentage and 84th percentile in launch angle sweet spot percentage. He has simply been one of the most dominant hitters in the league this season who can hit home runs at a moment's notice, proven by his five home runs in the last six games.
He is as hot as he has been all season over these last few games, so seeing odds like +500 by his name to hit a home run is crazy, even considering the pitcher he is facing in the ballpark he is in. Normal hitters hitting a home run off Logan Webb in Oracle Park would be nearly impossible, but Shohei Ohtani is not a normal hitter. It’s simply too hard to pass up this line, even given the variables.
To make this a bit of a safer play, you could also take him to hit a double, as it is very possible that he could hit that wall in right field and turn it into two bases. His odds to hit a double are +285, meaning you could bet one unit on both a home run and a double and if either happens the worst-case scenario is you go up 1.85 units on the double and four units on the home run. Either way, he should make some hard contact tonight off Webb and Cash in for us. There's also the bullpen behind Webb that could easily give up a home run to Ohtani.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Prop Picks
- Pick: Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run @ +500 CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
- Extra Pick: Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Double @ +285 CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
MLB ODDS
Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.