Best MLB Home Run Bets: Lock In This Expert's Best MLB Player Prop Bets for Friday
Best MLB Home Run Bets: Lock In This Expert's Best MLB Player Prop Bets for Friday
We hit home run props with Rafael Devers (+320) on Tuesday, Gunnar Henderson (+340) on Wednesday, and Byron Buxton (+420) last night.
Let's go for our fourth in a row tonight.
June 28 Best MLB Home Run Props
Jarren Duran to Hit a Home Run (+630) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
The odds are too good to pass up here.
Jarren Duran is facing Randy Vasquez of the Padres. Vasquez is a righty who has allowed a .239 ISO and wOBA of .541 to his last 53 lefties. He's also added just 9.4% of strikeouts and has given up 39% of line drives.
Meanwhile, Duran has hit a .246 ISO and wOBA of .423 with just 19.2% of strikeouts in the last 30 days. More importantly, he's smacked 37% of line drives with a 57.4% hard contact rate against righties in the previous month.
Duran has also hit a 9.3% barrel percentage against righties and will likely lead off tonight. He's in a great spot to smack a line drive over the fence against Vasquez.
Andrew Benintendi to Hit a Home Run (+870) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
I guess we're going with ultimate long shots tonight. But I can't ignore Andrew Benintendi's .250 ISO and wOBA of .393 against righties over the last month.
Benintendi has hit 36.4% of fly balls over the last 30 days and has smacked 54.5% of hard contact in the same time frame against righties.
Meanwhile, Dakota Hudson has only struck out 11.1% of lefties in the last month. He's also allowed a .268 ISO and wOBA of .412 with 30.6% of fly balls to lefties over the previous 30 days.
Let's back Benintendi to go deep, especially with +870 odds.
Willy Adames to Hit a Home Run (+340) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Willy Adames has the best-implied chance to hit a home run tonight on our list. He's already smacked a .222 ISO and wOBA of .366 against his last 75 righties as a right-handed batter.
He'll face Jameson Taillon, who is also a righty. But he's allowed a .190 ISO and wOBA of .361 to his last 65 righties. Taillon struggles against righties as a righty, and Adames hits righties well as a right-handed batter.
It's the perfect match.
Taillon has allowed 37.3% of line drives and 33.3% of fly balls to righties over the last month. He's also induced just 21.6% of ground balls against righties. That won't help against Adames.
Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets Today
- Jarren Duran to Hit a Home Run (+630) (Bet $100 to collect $730)
- Andrew Benintendi to Hit a Home Run (+870) (Bet $100 to collect $970)
- Willy Adames to Hit a Home Run (+340) (Bet $100 to collect $440)
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Article Author
Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.