Daily Picks: Looking At Team Totals
We have a busy Wednesday in the majors, with four afternoon games and 11 evening games. On what should be an interesting slate, let’s see if we can find some value.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Twice in a row now Luis Castillo has blown up on me when I have backed the Reds based on him being on the mound. I am going to avoid falling for that again by cutting him out of my pick in this match. Instead I am going to look to pick on fly ball pitcher Matt Strahm. Strahm has been working out of the bullpen and so will not be stretched out for this one. He is also pitching in a small ball park with the wind blowing out. The Reds average 4.5 runs per game at home this season and with the weather and Strahm on the mound I like them to top that in this one.
1u – CIN Reds Over 4.5 Team Runs @ +108
A similar situation awaits us here with two flyball pitchers in conditions which favor home run hitting. Both have been really good this season, but with them both ranking among the top-five in qualified starters FB% things could get messy. The problem is that a line of nine s a little high for me, as it requires either both of them to be hit hard, or one of them to be completely blown up. That feels unlikely to me, so instead I am going to look to the team totals. The White Sox are averaging five runs per game in this series and have scored less than four just once in the last five. Therefore, I like them to be able to get to four in the matchup with Jake Odorizzi in hitter friendly conditions.
1u – CHI White Sox Over 3.5 Team Runs @ -110
My first two picks were all about favorable hitting conditions and this one is all about the reverse. Wrigley Field is so dependent on the wind as to how it plays, and today has the makings of an extreme pitcher day. Yu Darvish has also been extremely good recently, and his home form has seem him allow just one earned run in his last three starts. Dereck Rodriguez is a little more of a mystery, but 10 runs is a lot, especially if Darvish can produce again. With the weather favoring pitching I am taking the under in this one.
1u – Under 10 Total Runs @ -115
I never thought when this season started, I would be backing Mike Fiers against the Yankees, but here we are. There are a lot of stats favoring the Athletics here. They are 41-24 at home, 28-27 when the underdog, and Fiers is an incredible 11-3 this season. Throw in that JA Happ has an ERA over five and the Athletics rank fifth in league in wRC+ and fourth in both slugging percentage and ISO against left-handed pitchers then this just gets even better for the Athletics. As a kicker, Happ has allowed six earned runs in both of his last two road starts. Coming off a 6-2 win on Tuesday I like the Athletics to take the Yankees once again on Wednesday.
1u – OAK Athletic ML @ +125
By Ben Rolfe