2020 US Election Odds: Betting Suggests Republicans Making Gains In Swing States
The build up to November 3 and the 2020 US Election is without doubt going to take turn after turn especially as the all-important debates begin on September 29. Judged by the betting markets in the UK, it does appear that one significant turn that’s happened in the last month is the swing towards the red side in certain key swing states.
Recent betting odds movements have all shifted in favor of the Republicans in Ohio, North Carolina, Michigan and Florida.
For example, on August 15, the oddsmakers made the Democrats favorites at 8/13 (62% implied probability) to take Florida, whereas as of today, the two parties can’t be split in the betting.
See the graph below which breaks down how the oddsmaker’s have predicted Florida will vote in November over the last few weeks and months.
Another example of this is Michigan, where though the Democrats are still favorites to win, the odds for a Republican upset has also dropped significantly.
On August 8, the odds for a red win in Michigan were 11/4 (26.7% probability), whereas today the odds are 7/4 which is a 36.4% probability.
Moving to Ohio, odds in the last month have shifted from 8/13 into 8/15 for a Republican win. That’s an implied percentage increase from 61.9% to 65.2%.
Finally, North Carolina has been one of the biggest movers in the past month. The Republicans were the underdog in the betting market to take the state on August 12, but have now surged to being favorites with an implied win percentage chance of 54.17%.Â
2020 US Election - Latest Odds & Betting Data
Despite these moves in the swing states, Joe Biden remains the very slight betting favorite to come out on top in November, but odds for a Donald Trump and Republican success have dropped considerably in recent weeks.
On August 4, Joe Biden’s US Election odds suggested he had a 61.9% chance of winning, now it has slipped to just a 54.5% chance of being victorious. He's still in the lead, as he has been over recent months, but the odds shortening on Donald Trump is something which should concern all Democrats. Trump now has a 50% chance of retaining the White House, odds which have increased 2% in the past week.
| 1 | UK Odds | US Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 5/6 | -120 | 54.5% |
| Donald Trump | 1/1 | +100 | 50% |
With three head-to-head debates scheduled before the US Election on November 3, there is still plenty of time for huge shifts in terms of odds, depending on who comes out on top in the debates. Even before those debates, the first of which is nearly a fortnight away, there is almost daily movement in terms of odds as bettors look to take advantage of every news story which comes out.
Betting on the US Election
Betting on the US Election isn’t legal in the US yet despite online sports betting being legal in many states. See which bookmakers you can bet within your state here. All the data we use is from our UK website which has millions of users each month checking odds.
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