NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship from Phoenix Predictions, Odds, Picks: Looking to Back Brandon Jones
NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship from Phoenix Predictions, Odds, Picks: Looking to Back Brandon Jones
There's only one way to go out in this business, and that's on top. Last weekend we casually dropped a little 3-0 Xfinity card on you, including two plus-money plays with an outright winner. Slop was right...It's NBD szn.
NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: Saturday, November 5, 2022
- Start Time: 6:00 pm ET
- Where to Watch: USA Network
Click here for NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship odds
NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Prediction
A lesser man might hang up his cleats and start shaking hands and kissing babies before being enshrined in the gambling hall of fame after a week like that. Not us. We've never quit gambling a day in our lives. There are three races left, so let's make them count.
It's Championship weekend in Phoenix, Arizona. This is why NASCAR is better than any other sport. We get three Super Bowls every year. Football only gets one. (Math).
The four guys that will be battling for the title and dominating your TV set on Saturday night will be Noah Gragson, Ty Gibbs, Justin Allgaier, and Josh Berry. Twitter was on fire last weekend after Ty Gibbs wrecked his own teammate, Brandon Jones, to win at Martinsville. Most said it was dirty, unprofessional, and despicable racing. We say, "Cash us out."
What happens in these championship races is usually pretty predictable. The rest of the field generally approaches these four drivers with kid gloves. They get an extra room and usually end up at the front of the field. The bookmakers know that the most likely outcome is one of those drivers winning, but that also provides some fantastic value on great drivers further down the betting board. Our ideal target driver will have solid speed metrics on short, flat tracks while also having a bone to pick with a playoff driver. Someone like that will be more likely to insert themselves into the action and battle for a win.
We've got that guy.
0.25u - Brandon Jones to outright win (+1600) (Bet $100 to collect $1700) Get the best odds here, available at BetMGM
1.05u to win 1.0u - Brandon Jones to finish ahead of Sam Mayer (-105) (Bet $100 to collect $195) Get the best odds, available at DraftKings
First of all, this is not an advertisement for BetMGM. I was limited to betting $1.54 on Brandon Jones to win there, and that just wasn't enough. Very sharp move by those criminals to be afraid of NASCAR props. That's fine...we would play this at the +1400 number lots of other books have posted. It's nice to have options.
Who needs enemies when you've got friends like Ty Gibbs? Brandon Jones should be mixing it up for a Championship on Saturday night. As we alluded to earlier, he was dumped by his teammate coming to the checkered flag last weekend, ending his quest for an improbable title.
Would it have been that big of a surprise?
Yes.
But we will certainly make the case for a Jones win this weekend. We've got data that backs it up. You don't just put down $1.54 on a guy to win a NASCAR race unless you've got a reason.
Brandon Jones has the number-one-rated pit crew on the circuit. These fellas are supercharged. They're 2 tenths of a second better than the second-ranked crew (Austin Hill) and seven-tenths ahead of the third (Justin Allgaier). Picking up spots on pit roads is definitely easier than passing cars on the racetrack.
Jones bagged a win in the first Martinsville race this season and had himself six corners from sweeping. He's been good on the other short, flat tracks this season as well. In our 2022 comparable track dataset consisting of Richmond, Martinsville, New Hampshire, and Phoenix, Jones ranks fourth in average fast laps (14.0), third in average laps led (31.2) and driver rating (102.3), and second in average running position (7.5). This kid has been fast. His crew is bonkers good. He deserved better than a Ty Gibbs front bumper stealing his season. We're keeping the cash, though.
Brandon Jones may not win the race, but he's definitely beating Sam Mayer. Mayer's crew is good...but their four-tire pit stops are 1.1 seconds slower than Jones' on average. Mayer is also well behind in all of our key predictors. His fast laps (4.2), average laps led (0), average running position (12.2) and driver rating (86.9) prove that Brandon Jones should take the young Sam Mayer out behind the woodshed, shake him by the ankles, steal his wallet, and have enough loot to pay us all for our tickets. Easy.
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