NASCAR Prediction and Pick: Can Noah Gragson Finish Strong at the Contender Boats 300?
NASCAR Prediction and Pick: Can Noah Gragson Finish Strong at the Contender Boats 300?
Rarely do these articles write themselves. I know that it's rare because I spend so much time writing them. This one is different. It's practically already done.
NASCAR Xfinity Series Contender Boats 300 Start Time and Where to Watch
Date: Saturday, October 22
Time: 4:30 pm ET
Where to Watch: USA
NASCAR Xfinity Series Contender Boats 300 Pick
1.5u to win 3.0u - Noah Gragson to outright win (+200) (Bet $100 to collect $200)
*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*
Chalk outright winners in motorsport gambling are some of our least favorite wagers to make. But our hands are tied. It's just the way it is...the nature of the beast. Like Lewis Hamilton from 2017 through 2020. AJ Allmendinger on any Xfinity road course.
And Noah Gragson at Homestead.
Let's start with Gragson's historical metrics at Homestead. The haters will definitely point to the fact that he's never won here in his four career starts. The last time the Xfinity fellas turned laps here, Gragson had the field absolutely obliterated (21 fast, 34 led). That is until the lap wagon of David Starr cut a tire and wrecked race-lading Noah in the waning moments of the race.
“Well, this over-entitled mouthpiece did not have enough talent to miss our wreck," Starr was quoted saying after the race. David Starr is clearly a hater.
In Gragson's four winless Homestead starts, he's done everything except be the first driver to the checkered.
- Average fast laps: 23.3
- Average laps led: 52.0
- Driver rating: 119.7
- Average running position: 4.8
In our comparable track matrix consisting of Homestead 2021, AutoClub 2022, and the four 2022 Las Vegas/Darlington dates, Noah Gragson ranks first in every important statistical category. It's not even a debate.
- Noah Fast laps: 31.5 [Gibbs (second): 18.8]
- Noah avg laps led: 54.2 [Allgaier (second): 26.2]
- Noah average running position: 3.2 [Gibbs (second): 5.6]
- Driver Rating: 130.2 [Allgaier (second): 112.9]
It looks like it might be a pretty good race between Allgaier and Gibbs for second but this outright winner prop has already been decided. Noah gets us the cash on Saturday afternoon.