2024 Masters Betting Picks and Predictions: Can Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young Impress at Augusta?
2024 Masters Betting Picks and Predictions: Can Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young Impress at Augusta?
We’ve finally made it to the first major of the year, Golf’s Super Bowl, and the first time since last July that the golf world can all come together over one roof. The Masters Tournament is held annually at Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Georgia. It is an invitational event with a field of just 92 players. Storylines are abound this week, as this will be our first look at how the best players on the PGA Tour stack up against the best on LIV.
Can Scottie Scheffler parlay his dominant run into a second green jacket? How will Jon Rahm fare in his first major as a LIV golfer? Can Rory McIlroy finally become just the seventh player in history to complete the career Gland Slam? Brooks Koepka looks to join the history books as well and become just the 14th golfer to earn six major championships. Or will this finally be the year that Xander Schauffele, in some of the best form of his career, finally gets over the hump? Whatever, the 2024 Masters may hold, we are surely in for a fascinating week.
The Masters DATE, START TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: April 11 - 14, 2024
- Where: Augusta, GA
- Where to Watch: Golf Channel, NBC, Peacock
The Masters: Course Preview
Augusta National
Augusta National Golf Club was designed in 1933 by Alister MacKenzie and Bobby Jones, and while it has undergone various changes over the years, the course still remains one of the most iconic and recognizable venues on the planet. Now tipping out to a whopping 7,555 yards and playing as a par 72, powerful driving and long iron play are a crucial part of the equation. Every year, small tweaks and changes are made to the familiar venue, and 2024 is no different. The tee box on the par five second has been extended back and to the left by 10 yards in an effort to bring the right fairway bunker back more into play. The second hole played as the easiest on the course last year, and I would imagine the new tee box is a response to this.
Outside of the new tee box on two, the course remains will look very similar to what we saw last year, with a major caveat on the weather conditions. Tournament organizers have done an excellent job keeping face with modern technology, and depending on the weather, the course generally plays a stroke to two strokes over par every year, the COVID November Masters being the lone exception. Last year, we saw a slightly softer golf course amid rainy conditions, and the course played nearly a full stroke easier than the prior year. Still, Augusta held up and produced a 12 under par winner. Only 25 players finished the week under par, and it ranked as the sixth toughest course on the PGA Tour.
The formula at Augusta is fairly straightforward, and there are reasons why many believe that this is the easiest tournament to handicap all season. Course history remains the number one indicator of success at Augusta National, and the correlation of prior success is over double any other regular PGA Tour course. There are many reasons for this, but the complexity and nuance of the green complexes is top of mind. Secondly, mid to long iron play is paramount. Over 75% of all approach shots at Augusta National come from over 150 yards, and a high ball flight and control with long irons is a crucial component to success.
Of course, Augusta National is also the most challenging short game course on the entire Tour, and the utilization of closely mown areas makes any up and down a complex equation. In terms of secondary skills, power off the tee, lag putting, and par five scoring are all a part of the equation, and nearly always, a player in peak form is the last man standing. Three of the last four winners had all won three times already that season prior to their Masters victory, and were clearly at the upper echelon of their sport. Given these trends and the required skill-set, nearly all signs point to Scottie Scheffler, who currently sits at +400, the lowest price of a Masters favorite since Tiger Woods. Will the World Number one capture his second green jacket, or may one of the challengers halt his momentum on the sport’s biggest stage?
The Masters Open Key Stats
- Proximity 175 yards plus
- Scrambling out of the Short Grass
- Course History
The Masters: Outright Picks
Rory McIlroy (+1000) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
Well, here we are again. Another chance for Rory McIlroy to secure his first major championship in a decade, and become just the sixth player ever to complete the career Grand Slam. It’s been a tumultuous run for McIlroy, and he has not been without his chances. The 34-year-old is the only player to record six top-eight major finishes over the last two years, and incredibly close calls at the 2022 Open Championship at St. Andrews and the 2023 U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club leave both valuable experience and natural scar tissue. Yet a different McIlroy, free from the chains of a PGA Tour board seat and at peace with the limitations of his own ability to control what he can’t control, enters the 2024 Masters.
In his press conference prior to the Valero Texas Open, McIlroy continually used the word, “discipline,” a buzzword I would not use to describe Rory’s typical style of play. Yet perhaps inspiration from Scottie Scheffler’s run of domination, built largely on his conservative approach, has inspired the Irishman to view course management and strategy in a different light. The early returns have been promising, as Rory recorded a third-place finish at the Valero Texas Open, gaining over seven strokes on approach in the process, his best recorded iron week in over three years. A quiet confidence and lowered expectations characterize a more humbled and restrained McIlroy in the wake of a divided golf world, and the eyes of the all, for once, will be on on a different man this week. I reckon that just might have been the answer all along.
Cameron Young (+5500) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
If you are more inclined to back the discount version of Rory McIlroy, look no further than Cameron Young. The big hitting 27-year-old provides a similar skill-set of tremendous power off the tee and elite long iron play, and both played a major factor in the 2022 Open Championship at St. Andrews, a course with far more similarities to Augusta National than one would think. Young may not possesses the lengthy major resume of McIlroy, but he is off to a tremendous start, and between top-three finishes at St. Andrews, Southern Hills, and a seventh-place finish last year at the Masters, I reckon that Young has taken a strong liking to big ball-parks and classical architecture, particularly when the setting is momentous. Even more encouraging was Young’s taking to Augusta National’s challenging green complexes last year, as the 27-year-old gained over five strokes putting, no easy feat for a Masters second timer.
While his week-to-week putting stats on the PGA Tour leave much to be desired, there is a strong history of questionable putters such as Will Zalatoris, Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Scott, and Sergio Garcia taking a wonderful liking to Augusta’s smooth Bent-grass surfaces. If we can get anything close to a similar putting performance at this year’s Masters, I trust Young’s ball-striking more than nearly anyone in this field, as the former PGA Tour Rookie of the Year has now gained over 3.5 strokes ball-striking in seven straight starts. If you are looking for a player at 45/1 or higher who can hang with Scheffler for four days from a ball-striking perspective, it’s Cameron Young, and then everyone else. Who knows, maybe we are onto something with the putting comfortability at Augusta National as well.
GOLF ODDS
Article Author
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from Manhattan, New York. Andy came to OddsChecker in January 2022 after previously writing for Golf Digest, GolfWRX, Rotoballer, and the Score. Andy is also the host of a golf betting and daily fantasy podcast, Inside Golf Podcast, as well as "The Scramble” with Rick Gehman, and a recurring guest on the Pat Mayo Experience. In his free time, Andy is still grinding away at his lifelong dream of qualifying for the U.S. Amateur, and if not writing, can likely be found somewhere on a golf course.