Open Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Finau, Bhatia in Troon

Open Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Finau, Bhatia in Troon

It is time for the 2024 Open Championship, or the 'British Open' as it's known stateside. No matter what you call it, this tournament is a special one, and we should be in for a treat as the best in the world battle it out for the Claret Jug.

Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, and Collin Morikawa. All major winners, two of whom (McIlroy and Morikawa) are already Open Champions, all arrive at this event in good form. Scheffler and Schauffele won the year's first two majors, McIlroy won the Wells Fargo Championship, and then cruelly missed out on the U.S. Open, and Morikawa continues to contend - even if he hasn't picked up a win this year.

With all these players, as well as U.S. Open winner, Bryson DeChambeau and the talented Ludvig Aberg in form ahead of the Open Championship, you would be forgiven for staying at the top of the market for this one. In this article, it is our job to focus on potential sleepers and value picks, and that's exactly what we will do.

Last year it paid off as we backed Brian Harman at a whopping +17500 to win at Hoylake. While that might be hard to replicate, it feels like there is every chance another longshot winner takes home the trophy this week. Any player at +4000 qualifies for this column, and we have five players that fit the billing!

Before we get into the picks, we will outline how we think you can find value in this market, and what it takes to be a winner of this fine tournament.

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What Skill Set is Required to Win The 2024 Open Championship?

Royal Troon is such a great test, and while you will read this week about the added yardage since 2016, I still favor accuracy over distance here. While hitting it long and straight will work anywhere, missing the fairway could prove far more penal than being 20 yards behind your playing competitor this week.

Here is what I am looking for from an Open Champion.

SG Approach - With smaller greens than your typical Open venue like St Andrews, there is certainly going to be an increased focus on your approaches to the greens here. It might not even be a case of leaving yourself too much to do on the greens, if you are not razor-sharp with your irons and wedges, you might miss these small greens altogether. Find those who have been hitting it close in recent weeks.

Driving Accuracy - We saw last year how effective the 'fairways and greens' approach was for Brian Harman, as the American never got out of his comfort zone, instead hitting it in the short stuff regularly, before setting up multiple birdie chances each day. Look for players who have 'controlled power off the tee'. Bomb and gouge types need not apply at Royal Troon.

Links Form - Duh... We have seen over the years, that barring Collin Morikawa, who won on his debut, all the other recent winners here have had Open Championship experience, and for the most part, came with positive results. Cam Smith had never finished that well in this tournament before winning at St Andrews, but he did have good rounds in isolation.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the Open Championship?

Below are the pre-tournament odds of each Open Championship winner since 2013 - This will help indicate whether a longshot could come through for us here.

2023 - Brian Harman +17500

2022 - Cam Smith +2800

2021 - Collin Morikawa +4000

2019 - Shane Lowry +7000

2018 - Francesco Molinari +3300

2017 - Jordan Spieth +1600

2016 - Henrik Stenson +3300

2015 - Zach Johnson +11000

2014 - Rory McIlroy +1800

2013 - Phil Mickelson +2000

In 4 of the last 10 renewals, we have seen a winner at +4000 or bigger at the Open Championship. Extend the parameters to +3300, and you add two more winners, Henrik Stenson and Collin Morikawa, both of whom still felt like value selections that week.

Stenson was the last winner at this golf course, winning at +3300, while Todd Hamilton was a huge-priced winner back in 2004 here at Royal Troon.

Open Championship Betting Trends, Correlating Courses

It is not always easy to pluck out trends for majors where we have rotating venues. The Masters is more predictable as the golfers go back to the same venue every year, but having said that, the majority of the last 10 Open Championship winners have shared common profiles, and we can outline those below.

Win on the Season - Now that this is the final major of the year, the large majority of the best golf has unfolded, and we have seen which players have stepped up throughout the season. 8 of the last 10 Open Champions had already picked up a win on the season, before winning the Claret Jug, with 4 of them winning twice before getting their major win.

Contending Form - If you haven't won yet on the season, you for sure will have wanted to be in contention. Brian Harman and Zach Johnson hadn't won in the same year they won the Open Championship, but both had multiple top 5 finishes, including Harman finishing runner-up, and Johnson finishing 3rd. In Johnson's case, his 3rd came on his most recent start at the John Deere, while Harman had finished 2nd at the Travelers three starts before, and 9th and 12th in the two starts leading into the Open. You don't just want contending form, you want recent contending form.

Positive Open Championship Experience - Of the last 10 Open Champions only Collin Morikawa had won on debut, and 8 of the champions had already posted a top 10 in the previous Open before winning. Even Cam Smith, who had seemingly struggled in Open's previously, had finished 20th in the event before winning in 2022.

Major Contention a Huge Pointer - 10 of the last 10 Open Champions had already either won or finished runner-up in a major before winning the Claret Jug. Mickelson, McIlroy, Zach Johnson, Spieth, and Morikawa had all won majors before winning the Open. Stenson had finished 2nd to Mickelson in this same major three years prior, Francesco Molinari had finished 2nd at the PGA Championship a year earlier, and Shane Lowry was three years removed from a runner-up finish at the 2016 U.S. Open, a tournament he should have won. Cam Smith (U.S. Open) and Brian Harman (PGA) had both finished runner-up in a major in the past as well.

Look to the 2013 and 2019 Open Championships for Clues

It is hard to build too much of a correlation between Open venues, such is the rotation, and the length of time between seeing each course again. For example, the world of golf looked very different in 2016 than it does now, and while I am going to go back to 2013 it doesn't spit out too many obvious candidates, due to the 11-year gap.

The 2013 Open Championship at Muirfield is an obvious one, as Mickelson beat Stenson that year, the exact reversal of the outcome here at Troon in 2016. Strengthening this link are:

Zach Johnson - 6th at Muirfield, 12th at Troon

Keegan Bradley - 15th at Murfield, 18th at Troon (but was also top 5 after each of the first two rounds and still top 10 going into Sunday)

Miguel Angel Jimenez - 13th at Muirfield, 18th at Troon as a 52-year-old

Some notable finishes to consider from the 2013 Open: Adam Scott T3, Hideki Matsuyama T6

The 2019 Open Championship also threw up some correlation worth investigating:

Tyrrell Hatton T5 at Troon in 2016, T6 at Royal Portrush in 2019

Tony Finau T18 on Open debut at Troon in 2016 (top 6 for first three rounds), Best Open finish came at Portrush when T3 in 2019

J.B. Holmes 3rd at Troon in 2016, Led after rounds 1 and 2 at the 2019 Open, and was still in 3rd going into Sunday before a huge collapse

Lee Westwood 4th at Troon in 2004, T22 in 2016, T3 at Royal Portrush in 2019

Some notable finishes to consider from the 2019 Open: Shane Lowry 1st, Tommy Fleetwood 2nd, Tony Finau 3rd, Brooks Koepka 4th, Robert McIntyre 6th, Tyrrell Hatton 6th

Riviera a Good Identifier of Royal Troon Contenders, or Just Major Winners?

Looking back at the 2016 Open Championship here at Royal Troon, there is a lot of crossover with success here and at Riviera, which hosts the now-named Genesis Invitational.

Here is the top 10 at the 2016 Open Championship, and their best form at Riviera.

1st) Henrik Stenson - Played once, finished T77 2nd) Phil Mickelson - 2x Winner, 2 x Runner-Up 3rd) J.B. Holmes - Winner 4th) Steve Stricker - Winner T5) Sergio Garcia - Three Top 6 Finishes T5) Rory McIlroy - Two top 5s and a top 10 T5) Tyrrell Hatton - T40 8th) Andrew Johnston - DNP T9) Bill Haas - Winner

T9) Dustin Johnson - Winner and Runner-Up

If we go back to 2004 as well, Ernie Els, who lost in a playoff to Todd Hamilton here, had won at Riviera in the past, beating Davis Love III who finished 5th here at Troon.

Retief Goosen who finished 7th, also had a chance to win at Riviera late on in his career, finishing T8 in 2015.

Scott Verplank finished T7 here and has a top 5 at Riviera

Mike Weir was a two-time Riviera winner who finished T9 here in 2004

Tiger Woods famously never won at Riviera but has finished 2nd multiple times and was T9 here in 2004.

While there are very few similarities between a course in California and a links course in Scotland, both feature small greens that demand very accurate approach play, and imagination around the greens also comes into play at both. Factor in a demand for accuracy off the tee, and it is perhaps not all that surprising that the same players feature on both leaderboards.

In terms of regular PGA Tour stops, Riviera has generally been one of the finest indicators of a major winner, usually at The Masters, so maybe it is just no more than that. One to ponder though.

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 Open Championship

Without further ado, here are my five picks at +4000 and bigger for the 2024 Open Championship. I truly believe each of these players has been slightly overlooked in the market, for one reason or another, and I am keen to take advantage!

Patrick Cantlay +4500 (FanDuel)

Despite Cantlay having an 'underwhelming' season so far, he has already amassed four top 5 finishes on the year, two of which have come in his most recent starts.

5th at the Travelers a week after finishing 3rd at the U.S. Open, where he was in contention all week long, I really feel this is a case of out of sight, out of mind for Cantlay.

Had Cantlay played and played reasonably well, I could see him being closer to the +3000 mark, and I am choosing to be optimistic that all is ok with his health. While he did pull out of the John Deere that seemed precautionary, and he may have felt a week off last week was more beneficial than a week on the links.

12th on debut at Carnoustie in 2018 and 8th at St Andrews in 2022, Cantlay has impressed the two times he's played the Open Championships in Scotland, and I am confident that can continue here.

When 8th in 2022, Cantlay did warm up with a T4 finish at the Scottish Open, but four years earlier he was coming off a T15 at the Travelers, and he played that tournament better in the lead-up this time around.

Cantlay ranked inside the top 7 for both SG Approach and SG Tee to Green at the U.S. Open, and it's that ball striking, plus his two top 3 finishes in majors, particularly last time out, that gives me plenty of reason for encouragement.

He's proven he can play links, he's now proven he can stay the course in a major, with his showing at Pinehurst, and now is the time for him to make the ultimate leap.

Tom Kim +4500 (BetMGM)

I was ready to be out on Tom Kim for this week after being let down by him at the Scottish Open, then he fired a final round 64 to salvage a top-15 finish.

I wouldn't normally be swayed by one good final round, but the stats show he was solid enough ball-striking last week (9th SG Tee to Green and 30th Approach), and I have had him circled for this for weeks. I will take at least one more shot on the young phenom before this season is done.

Kim has impressed already in a short major career, finishing 8th at the 2023 U.S. Open, before grinding it out on one ankle to finish T2 in this event last year. He was never going to threaten Harman last year, but it was impressive nonetheless, and a sure sign he likes this test.

Three straight top 15 finishes now in the Scottish Open shows a liking for this sort of test, and on a course where distance is not essential, this might be one of his better chances of winning this major.

He's an impressive young player who knows how to win, and his attitude alone might just get him around this test better than others. He's worth taking in this major, even so early in his career.

Tony Finau +5000 (BetRivers)

Ah, this week's winner, Milton Pouha Finau, or Tony as we affectionally know him...

One player who has certainly served an apprenticeship in the majors is Tony Finau, who has 11 top 10 finishes to his name on the four biggest events, including at least one top 5 in each.

3rd and 9th are his two best efforts in this tournament, but it's his consistency in this major that really catches the eye. It wasn't until the putter let him down 12 months ago that Finau finally missed a cut at the Open Championship, finishing 28th or better in his first six attempts!

His debut came at this course in 2018, where he was inside the top 6 for the first three rounds, and I fancy he will hang on for a better finish this time around, should he find himself in the position again.

Finau might be the third player on this list already, that hasn't won on the season, and that is generally a pointer to an Open Champion, but as Harman did a year ago, Finau has a runner-up finish under his belt, and he's posted three-straight top 8 finishes.

The best of those was when T3 with Patrick Cantlay at the U.S. Open, and these two can certainly be found at the top of the "best players without a major" lists that are always circulated at this time of year.

Twice in his last five starts, Finau has led the field in SG Approach, including at the U.S. Open, and now it is time for him to have another good week here, on the other side of the Atlantic.

Corey Conners +8000 (bet365)

Make it 4 out of 4, and it is clear I am willing to ignore the trend that suggests having a win on the season is crucial before winning the Open. It's not that I disagree, how can I? I just think it's easy to overplay, and it means counting out too many good players. After all, Stephan Jaeger isn't more likely than Tony Finau or Corey Conners to win the Open, just because he won in Houston earlier this year...

That's a long way of justifying why I am taking another player without a win this season, and that is Canadian, Corey Conners, who has a better record in the biggest events than people might realize.

Most will focus on how good he has been at the Masters, where he has three top-10 finishes, but he was also T12 at the 2023 PGA Championship, where he was the 36-hole leader and still in 2nd place, going into Sunday. He was then 9th last time out at the U.S. Open, where he was in the same position at the end of each round.

He already has two top-28 finishes in this major, including in 2021, when he was 4th going into the final round, ultimately finishing T15.

10 times this season, Conners has finished inside the top 25, and he's clearly trending in the right direction, finishing inside the top 10 in 3 of his last 5 starts, including last week in Scotland.

His recent top 10 finishes are a direct correlation to his improved putting stats, and in his last two Open's, he's gained strokes in the greens, so things are looking good.

You might have reservations that Conners can win a major, and maybe he's ultimately better as a top 10/20 play, but I can see a Harman-esque breakout performance, as he is the accurate type, that can control his ball around here and play the surgical golf needed to win an Open.

Akshay Bhatia +12500 (BetRivers)

Here's the wildcard. If one player is being overlooked based on a lack of Open experience, it is Akshay Bhatia, who is playing exceptional golf this season, but hasn't played this major, nor did he show up in Scotland last week.

Bhatia won his second PGA Tour event at the Texas Open earlier this year, and he had the chance to double his tally for the year, with a win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. That runner-up finish also followed a T5 at the Travelers, where he was also 2nd after the first three rounds.

Brian Harman first showed his hand at the Travelers (finishing 2nd) before winning last year's Open, and I love the fact Bhatia played well there and then contended again the following week in Detroit.

2nd in Puerto Rico, 4th in Mexico, 13th at the Sony Open, and a winner in Texas, Bhatia has shown the sort of wind form that suggests he can contend in this tournament.

35th on his Masters debut a week after winning, and 16th on his last major start at the U.S Open, where he was better placed earlier in the week, Bhatia is picking up major experience at a rapid rate, and I think that continues here.

Any time a player is triple digits after contending in back-to-back starts coming into an event, we should stand up and take notice, and Bhatia is certainly the caliber of player who can go on and win a major later in his career.

It's important to remember Bhatia is still two years younger than Ludvig Aberg, and yet is a two-time PGA Tour winner, and a three-time winner as a pro, when you include his Korn Ferry Tour win.