2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Jaeger For a Fast Start

2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Jaeger For a Fast Start

We are just a couple of weeks away from the 2024 PGA Championship, and with just the Wells Fargo to go before the second major of the year, players are looking to find some form before heading to Valhalla.

Jordan Spieth and Jason Day in particular will be looking for some positive times, and a fast start here might be just what the doctor ordered. The latter won this event last year, opening with a round of 64 and closing with a 62, and Spieth has finished 2nd and 9th here and led after round 1 on debut. With this in mind, and the motivation to prepare well for the upcoming major, both players are rightly among the favorites in both this market and the outright market.

Any player who is hoping to lead after round 1 on Thursday will need to find a round of 63 or better, with Sebastian Munoz and Seung-yul Noh both going even deeper, shooting 60 to lead here on Thursday over the past couple of years.

We only have three years of course form to go by here at TPC Craig Ranch, but we have quickly discovered how low you need to go here to contend.

We cashed a 50-1 ticket on J.T. Poston in our most recent First Round Leader article at the RBC Heritage, and we are looking for back-to-back winners this week.

2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson First Round Leader Strategy, Trends

First things first, we need to look at the four players to lead/co-lead here after round 1 since moving to TPC Craig Ranch in 2021. Here we can establish whether there is any wave bias (AM vs PM), what tee the players have started from, and the scores they needed to shoot.

• 2023 – Seung-yul Noh (6:50 am, #1 tee) - 60
• 2022 – Sebastian Munoz (7:23 am, #1 tee) - 60
• 2021 – J.J. Spaun (8:18 am, #10 tee), Jordan Spieth (12:33 pm, #1 tee) - 63

Of the four players to lead or co-lead here since the event moved to TPC Craig Ranch, three of them teed off early in the morning and three also teed off the first tee.

Three players shot 63 or better in round 1 in 2023, two of them teed off the #1 tee, and all three of them teed off at 8:40 am or earlier.

In 2022, five players shot 64 or better in Round 1 (Munoz led the field by four shots). Three of those players teed off at 8:29 am or earlier, with two teeing off in the afternoon. Four of these five players teed off the #1 tee.

In 2021, six players shot 64 or better in Round 1, four teed off at 8:40 am or earlier, and three started their round on the 1st tee.

There has been a strong bias toward morning starters over the years, and starting from the 1st tee rather than the 10th tee looks advantageous as well.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson First Round Leader Trend

Former First Round Lead a Pointer: All four of the players to lead or co-lead here over the past three years, had already led after round 1 on multiple occasions on the PGA Tour.

Jordan Spieth (2021) Spieth had held 11 first round leads before leading here after round 1 at Byron Nelson, 9 of which were on the PGA Tour.

J.J. Spaun (2021)

Spaun had held 4 first round leads in his career before leading here. Two of these came on the PGA Tour.

Sebastian Munoz (2022) Munoz had already led after round 1 on 12 occasions in his career. These were equally split across the Korn Ferry Tour and the PGA Tour.

Seung-yul Noh (2023)

Noh had held 6 First Round Leads in his career before leading here, three of which were on the PGA Tour, the rest in Asia.

To me, the above trend is important. In terms of course and current form, there weren't many clues when looking for these first-round leaders, outside of Jordan Spieth, but all four were relatively prolific in round 1 in the past. This is the sort of course where you need to get hot and stay hot for four days, but particularly in round 1, and those that have done it before should have an advantage based on this small sample size.

TPC Southwind an Indicator?

All four players who have led or co-led here after round 1 over the past three years have also held the first round lead at either the FedEx St Jude Classic or the FedEx St Jude Championship, at TPC Southwind. Noh in 2016, Munoz in 2017, Spaun in 2022, and Spieth in 2023.

Weather Forecast at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson

The weather looks ok on Thursday, so I would lean on past results which suggest the AM starters will have the best of it on this golf course.

Who in this Field Started Fast on Tour Last Season?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average in the 2022/23 PGA Tour season.)

• Adam Scott (2nd Overall in 2022/23 - Scoring Average 68.50 - Low Opening Round - 62 (Travelers Championship)
• C.T. Pan (6th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 68.89) – Low Opening Round – 66 (Bermuda Championship)
• Andrew Novak (8th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 69.04) – Low Opening Round – 64 (Wyndham Championship)
• Stephan Jaeger (10th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 69.16) – Low Opening Round – 65 (Mexico Open)
• Byeong Hun An (11th overall in 2022/23) - Scoring Average 69.17) - Low Opening Round - 61 (Scottish Open)

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1?

Twice the leading score on day one has been 60 here, and in 2021 it was 63. You are going to need to shoot at least 63 to get in the mix here in the first round of the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.

The Favorites in the CJ Cup Byron Nelson First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market at the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson

• Jordan Spieth +3500
• Si Woo Kim +3500
• Adam Scott +4000
• Byeon Hun An +4000
• Jason Day +4000
• Min Woo Lee +4000

2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson First Round Leader Picks

Here are my First Round Leader selections for the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson

Stephan Jaeger +4500 (DraftKings)

I just about paused enough to not bet Stephan Jaeger to win a second PGA Tour title in four starts, but I will absolutely take a shot at him starting fast again.

I referenced how the four leaders/co-leaders at TPC Craig Ranch so far, have been first round leader specialists, and Jaeger is certainly one of those. With seven first round leads in his career so far, two of which came on the PGA Tour, Jaeger is a known quantity in this market.

A second round 65 put him in the mix at the Amex, just as a second round 64 did at Torrey Pines earlier this year, so while he didn't start too fast in either of those, he was able to post low scores. A 3rd place finish, courtesy of a final round 65 soon followed at the Mexico Open, and then four starts later he was a winner for the first time!

That first win came at the Houston Open, and he has since finished 18th at the RBC Heritage, where he was solid for the first three rounds. He hasn't played his best on Thursdays so far this season, but there's always time for change, and he should be more comfortable each week, knowing he's a PGA Tour winner now.

In two visits here, Jaeger has posted a round of 63 and three 65s as well, so he knows how to go low at this golf course, and it was that final round of 63 last year to finish 11th, that really gave me the confidence to pull the trigger this week.

I like that he's playing off the first tee, as you'll know quickly whether he's in the mood, given the easiness of the front 9, and while it is likely nothing, the fact all the first round leaders here have also led at TPC Southwind plays into Jaeger's hands. Jaeger shot a second round 65 around that course last year, and that's at least a nice bonus.

I wanted an afternoon starter, and he's the standout option for me at the top of the board.

C.T. Pan +8000 (FanDuel)

C.T. Pan closed out this event with a round of 62 last year to finish 3rd, and I am hoping he can get off to a quick start this time around.

He tees off early on Thursday, and while he will play the course in reverse, Pan can build on a decent start and then really catch fire on his back nine if all goes well in round 1.

Pan finished 3rd in Mexico earlier this season, which is his standout result, but he did that while losing strokes with his irons on the week. This time around, he comes into an event with two strong SG Approach weeks under his belt, and that could be the deciding factor in him starting fast.

This goes against the grain for me, as he's never led after round 1 on the PGA Tour, and he's never even ended the day within three shots of the leader at this level, despite ranking 6th in First Round Scoring Average last season. He is a player who can go crazy low on his day though, which he showed in round 4 last year, and I am hoping the early start here aids him this week.

Justin Lower +8000 (FanDuel)

The formula for Justin Lower is pretty simple this week. On his debut in this event, he opened with a 64 to sit T2, which is also the position he has found himself in after round 1 of the Corales and the Texas Open in his last two individual starts.

Lower was also 2nd after round 1 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational earlier this season, so three times in 2024 he has been in 2nd place going into Friday, and it is about time he led the way finally.

He was the first round leader at both the 2022 Fortinet Championship and the 2023 Canadian Open, so he's due another first round lead in 2024, so it might as well be here, where he tees off at 6:50 am.

Sean O'Hair +20000 (bet365)

I wanted a longshot from the very early morning wave, particularly one that was starting from the first tee, so step forward, Sean O'Hair.

The Lubbock, Texas resident will not be atop many shortlists in 2024, 13 years after he won his last PGA Tour title, but I think there is just enough left in the tank, even if it is just fumes, to suggest he will go well on Thursday.

O'Hair has opened with rounds of 67 and 65 here in two starts, and a second round of 65 at the Corales on his last individual start suggests he can potentially find another low one here.

He shot the same score (65) in round 2 on the Korn Ferry a few starts ago, even when missing the cut, and he finished 5th in Panama on that same tour in 2024 as well, so he's flashing form.

O'Hair is a player who has recorded 6 first round leads in his career, one of which came at this event, albeit on a different course, and his history suggests he could pull off a shock in the same way Seung-yul Noh did last year.