2024 Masters Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Lowry, Young at Augusta

2024 Masters Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Lowry, Young at Augusta

It's here! The wait is over, and we can now turn our attention to Augusta National, as enjoy this year's renewal of The Masters.

While it might not have taken much picking, I did win with Jon Rahm here last year, which was a nice boost to The Masters betting portfolio, and the Sleepers from last year both did ok without threatening to win. We were on Hideki Matsuyama at +4400 last year, double the price he is this season, and then Justin Rose at +6600, both of whom finished T16.

We will be hoping to get closer to the leaders with our sleepers for this year's US Masters, but who can challenge the likes of Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy for the Green Jacket?

Scheffler is rightly the outstanding favorite at +400, and while we couldn't pick him or Rory to win this week in this column, there wasn't much desire to do so at those odds either. All my outright picks are currently +2000 or bigger this week, and three of them make this list, so I am looking forward to betting on what I perceive to be good value this week.

Here's to an awesome week at Augusta for us all, and hopefully another big winner at Augusta, to build on the +17500 Brian Harman win at the Open Championship to end the major season in 2023.

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for The Masters, check out the new FanDuel Sportsbook promotion, where new users can claim an epic bonus betting on golf this week. With the FanDuel promo code, you will bet $5, win $200 if your first bet wins. Bet on one of these picks below, and get an additional $200 if your wager wins. This promo comes in particularly useful if you are betting on anyone sub 40-1 this week, particularly Scottie Scheffler!

What Skill Set is Required to Win The Masters?

At this stage, we really could just say "an all-round game" but where would be the fun in that? Although it is true, that you generally need every facet of your game firing to win the biggest event of the year, let's look at the standout statistics that play a role in winning the Green Jacket.

SG Approach - We got strokes-gained data from The Masters last year, and Jon Rahm 6th in Approach, while Brooks Koepka and Phil Mickelson, who finished in a tie ranked 2nd and 7th in that category respectively.

Par 4 Scoring - Each of the last 5 winners at Augusta has played the Par 4s at Augusta in level-par or better, and each of them has ranked 7th or better in this statistic. Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm both led the field in Par 4 scoring the year they won, and Scottie Scheffler and Hideki Matsuyama both ranked inside the top 3. Rory McIlroy (2022) and Will Zaltoris (2021) both led this statistic and finished runner-up in that respective year as well, so it is clearly key to contending.

Course History/Knowledge - Nothing replaces experience at Augusta, and those players who have either won or consistently played well at Augusta will always have an edge here. Some players take a while to figure it out, like Patrick Reed for example, who missed 2 cuts in 4 before winning here, but built up enough knowledge by the time he made his fifth start, to contend.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win The Masters?

While you hear that The Masters will be won by an elite player, which is generally true of this event, you can get some decently priced winners, as we have seen on multiple occasions over the years.

Below are the odds for every winner at Augusta since 2012.

2023 - Jon Rahm (+900)

2022 - Scottie Scheffler (+1600)

2021 - Hideki Matsuyama (+4500)

2020 - Dustin Johnson (+900)

2019 - Tiger Woods (+1600)

2018 - Patrick Reed (+5500)

2017 - Sergio Garcia (+4500)

2016 - Danny Willet (+6600)

2015 - Jordan Spieth (+1200)

2014 - Bubba Watson (+2800)

2013 - Adam Scott (+2800)

2012 - Bubba Watson (+5500)

Four of the last five winners at Augusta have been 16/1 or shorter, and that is likely where the winner will come from this year, but we have also seen Bubba Watson, Danny Willet, Sergio Garcia, Patrick Reed, and Hideki Matsuyama all win at odds that would see them qualify as a sleeper and value pick. Let's hope a 7th player since 2012 can join that group.

Masters Betting Trends, Correlating Courses

The most obvious correlation, and one you will read about 20 times more this week is the one between Augusta and Riviera. 14 different players have won at both Riviera and Augusta and Hideki Matsuyama's win at the Genesis this season was a further feather in that particular cap.

Here are some other betting trends to consider at Augusta. Again, you will have read about these already, or will again after reading this article, but everyone is generally singing off the same hymn sheet at Augusta National.

Debutants Don't Win: Fuzzy Zoeller was the last debutant to win at Augusta National, and there have only been two other debutants to win here, both of which came in the first two renewals of the event, so it is hardly relevant. Horton Smith won the first-ever Masters tournament in 1934, and Gene Sarazen won the 1935 renewal. Considering Craig Wood was runner-up in both 1934 and 1935, it didn't take long for course form to stand out like a sore thumb. It took Sergio Garcia 18 unsuccessful trips to Augusta National before winning, and while we have seen a host of players win on just their second start at Augusta, winners generally need longer to find their feet. Jon Rahm played in seven Masters before winning, Scottie Scheffler won on his third start, and both Hideki Matsuyama and Dustin Johnson needed 9 visits before winning a Green Jacket on their 10th start. No matter how appealing Wyndham Clark and Ludvig Aberg may look this week, this is a difficult trend to overcome.

With that said, Jonas Blixt finished runner-up in his first Masters, so maybe his countryman, Aberg can go one better... Will Zalatoris, Sungjae Im, Jordan Spieth, and Jason Day have also all threatened to win on debut since 2011 as well.

Back-to-Back Masters Wins are Tough: Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo, Tiger Woods. Those are the three golfers who have won back-to-back Green Jackets at Augusta, so Jon Rahm would find himself in elite company if he won again this year. He is the type that is capable, but it's a tough ask.

Top 25 in the World Win Here: This one could well be skewed over the next few years, with the changes in the OWGR rankings, and the lack of points for LIV players, but over the past 10 years, every Masters winner has been ranked inside the top 25 the week they won here. Even a shock winner like Danny Willett was ranked 12th at the time of his Masters victory. Hideki Matsuyama (25th) and Patrick Reed (24th) were the lowest-ranked Masters winners of the last decade, and it is fair to say they were elite talents at the time.

3+ Career Wins Vital: This will be no surprise, but multiple career wins under your belt are a big pointer to success here, and you will want to have had at least three wins across all the tours before winning here. Watson had won three by the time he'd won here in 2012, with every other Masters winner since boasting at least four career wins at various levels.

Top 22 finish at Augusta a Strong Indicator: Danny Willet is the only Masters champion since 2012 to not finish T22 or better at Augusta before winning here. He had finished 38th the year before on debut and broke par in three of his four rounds.

Top 5 on the Season important: 11 of the 12 winners at Augusta since 2012 had posted at least one top 5 finish on the season, with Hideki Matsuyama the exception. 7 of the 12 had already won that year, and Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler had both won three times in the year before winning here.

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 Masters

Here are my four picks at +4000 for The Masters this year.

Shane Lowry +5000 (DraftKings)

I am going to need my picks to bust a number of trends if they are going to break through, starting with my headline selection, which is Shane Lowry. The 2019 Open Champion has been in great form in 2024, and has an ever-improving profile at Augusta, to boot.

After starting his Masters career off with form figures of MC-39-MC-MC, the Irishman has found a way to get it around this famous track. He speaks of his experience of playing with Tiger as part of the switch, and that makes perfect sense and his results match.

Lowry had a good chance of winning here two years ago when he was 2nd at halfway and finished 3rd overall, and it has now been four-straight top 25s at The Masters for Lowry, who has won a major, a WGC, and contended in multiple majors throughout his career.

In addition to his win at the 2019 Open Championship, Lowry now owns top 4 finishes in each of the other three majors as well, and his best chance of winning one before 2019, was when 2nd at Oakmont at the 2016 U.S. Open, where he saw a six-shot lead evaporate in the final round.

Now returning to Augusta for the 9th time, and with course form that has seen him sit inside the top 10 after 6 of his last 8 rounds, Lowry looks more than capable of contending again, especially in his current form.

Lowry was the 54-hole leader at both the Cognizant Classic and the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and while he was unable to convert either, it is a clear sign he is playing some great golf, as was his 19th at The Players, which was charged by a final-round 66.

Some will argue his form is trending in the wrong direction, but personally, I think he's right where he needs to be, to compete here. This is arguably the best form he's been in when arriving at Augusta, even though he had won on the DP World Tour in 2019 before arriving here. Despite the win in 2019, he was coming in off the back of three missed cuts in four and a T62 finish in a 71-man WGC that year, with far less course form to speak of, so 2024 looks to be the perfect blend of current form and course experience.

Cameron Young +5000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young has never won on the DP World Tour, or the PGA Tour, so he would have to overcome plenty of obstacles, but I think he is talented enough to do so.

Already in his short career, Young has had a chance at some of the game's biggest titles, finishing 2nd at the 2023 Open Championship, and 3rd at the 2022 PGA, and his 7th here last year offers plenty of reason for optimism.

Sure, he blew a great chance to pick up a win at the Dubai Desert Classic earlier this year, an event he led for three rounds, and he lost out to Peter Malnati at the Valspar, but the latter could have been very different. In all honesty, although he didn't stamp his authority in the final round, Young may well have won that Valspar on another day, were it not for the inspired play of Malnati, which beat him, as opposed to Young throwing it away this time around.

He has the perfect skill set for this course, and I am confident at some point soon his talent is going to win out, and he will land a PGA Tour title. It is a tall task to pick up your first at Augusta, but he's talented enough, and I think he'd be viewed very differently this week if Malnati didn't edge him out in Florida.

Young has four top-8 finishes in his last seven major starts, and last year opened with a 67 and closed with a 68 here, so he's clearly good enough to compete at this golf course. Three top-4 finishes this season, it's probably going to happen for Young before the year is out, and I will take a chance on him when he's 50-1 as opposed to 20-1.

Patrick Reed +7500 (FanDuel)

I like Brooks Koepka this week, and both Jon Rahm and Joaquin Niemann will be popular, but Patrick Reed makes one of the most solid cases of the LIV contingent this week. The 2018 winner has played brilliantly around Augusta since his win, and he's found form at the right time.

Reed struggled at this course before working it out in the ultimate fashion with a win in 2018, and now he seems something of a specialist. His 4th last year was the third top-10 finish he has posted here since winning, and he's made the cut in all five starts since donning the Green Jacket.

It had been a slow start for Reed on LIV in 2024, but he then flew over to Macau where he finished 4th in an International Series event, before finishing top 10 at Doral last week, a course where plenty of Masters winners have won, including himself.

Reed is a tidy operator whose short game is chief among his strengths and that plays into his hands around Augusta. Length might hinder him slightly, but he more than makes up for it in guile.

He has made 16 of his last 17 major cuts, posting four top 10s in that time, three of which have come here. He loves this event, and will desperate to add another win to his collection.