Valero Texas Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Noren, Lee to Land Augusta Berths

Valero Texas Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Noren, Lee to Land Augusta Berths

The Valero Texas Open boasts a stronger field this year, with Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Abeg, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, and Jordan Spieth all looking to fine-tune their games before The Masters.

It is no surprise then that there are plenty of options at 40-1 and bigger for the Valero Texas Open and as a result, making our job slightly easier this week.

Scottie Scheffler almost landed a 3rd win in a row last week, but had to settle for a 2nd place finish behind the German, Stephan Jaeger, which means another sleeper picked up a win on the PGA Tour this season.

It is always difficult to figure out whether a market leader is looking to warm up for Augusta, and as such has half an eye on the week already, as opposed to looking to go all out for the win. It would be no surprise for example if a Rory McIlroy for example was simply using this week to work on something equipment or swing-wise this week.

With this in mind, I have focused solely on players that you know full well are desperate to win this week. Whether that be some top-class players who have not yet secured a spot at Augusta, or an improving journeyman who's in form this week. Either way, the motivation remains the same. Get a win at the Valero Texas Open, and next week, and indeed most of the season takes care of itself!

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What Skill Set is Required to Win the Valero Texas Open?

The standout statistics at the Valero Texas Open are rather boring, as it clearly just points to having an all round ball striking week, but let's see if there is anything more niche we can pick up on.

SG Tee to Green - Every winner since 2019 has ranked inside the top 5 in SG Tee to Green the week they won here. Corey Conners led the field in Approach both times he won, and Spieth ranked 4th in 2021. J.J. Spaun did however win by ranking 23rd on Approach for the week in 2022.

Driving Accuracy - We don't often focus on Accuracy off the tee, but there is certainly a case to be made for fairway finders this week. Ben Martin led the field in that statistic last year and finished 10th, Charles Howell finished 4th when doing the same in 2022, and when Ryan Moore led that statistic in 2019, he finished 3rd. It was different in 2021 when no one who ranked inside the top 5 for Driving Accuracy placed higher than 14th on the leaderboard.

Putting Average - When you look at the SG Putting statistic, you will be forgiven for thinking putting matters a bit less here. Having said that, Sam Stevens led the field in Putting Average last year and finished 2nd, and in the three years prior to that, the winner here has led the Putting Average statistic that week. Spaun, Spieth, and Conners all ranked 1st in Putting Average the week they won (Conners' first win). You've generally had to average 1.52 holes a hole to win here, but the winners' SG Putting ranking read 41st, 17th, 6th, and 26th over the past four years.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the Valero Texas Open?

Here are the odds for the last 10 winners at the Valero Texas Open

2023 - Corey Conners (+2000)

2022 - J.J. Spaun (+20000)

2021 - Jordan Spieth (+1600)

2019 - Corey Conners (+20000)

2018 - Andrew Landry (+20000)

2017 - Kevin Chappell (+3300)

2016 - Charley Hoffman (+3000)

2015 - Jimmy Walker (+2500)

2014 - Steven Bowditch (+30000)

2013 - Martin Laird (+10000)

We either get one of the favorites winning here, like we have with Corey Conners and Jordan Spieth in recent years, or we get a huge longshot, as we have with J.J. Spaun, Corey Conners' first win, and Andrew Landry in recent weeks.

Valero Texas Open Betting Trends

Looking at the last 11 years, we can identify some trends that may help shape our betting intentions this week.

Augusta Invite Sealed? - It used to be the Houston Open that players turned up to a week before the Masters, but both J.J. Spaun and Corey Conners have won and secured a Masters invite recently. 8 of the last 11 players to win the week before the Masters, also secured the final Masters ticket. Look for a player who has that motivation ahead of them.

World Ranking Not a Worry? - Only 3 of the 11 winners here since 2013 have been inside the World's Top 50 before winning here.

Previous Start at Valero Vital - Ben Curtis is the only winner here since 2012 to have won on his Valero Texas Open debut. Every other player has played at least once here, with 7 of the last 11 winners playing here at least four times before winning.

Correlating Courses

Here are some correlating courses to consider, with one in particular that I have gone into more detail on:

• Sony Open - J.J. Spaun finished 12th at the Sony before winning here, and that adds to Jordan Spieth and Corey Conners who have won here and have top 3s at the Sony. Jimmy Walker has won both tournaments, and Brendan Steele should have twice won the Sony, and won this tournament in 2011. Matt Kuchar has won the Sony and has posted four top 7 finishes here, including back-to-back top 3s over the past two years.
• Mayakoba - No longer part of the rotation, but El Camaelon used to be a good indicator. Matt Kuchar won there and we know he loves it here. Charley Hoffman has won at both, John Huh also won there and finished 2nd here.

My favorite course correlation though, has to be the RSM Classic. When looking for a course correlation, I tend to look at some of the most surprising results. You don't need me to tell you why Jordan Spieth might have been good here in the past, as he's one of the world's best players. Instead, let's look at where J.J. Spaun and Andrew Landry had played well before or since winning here. Then look at some surprise contenders here in the past and also look at other top finishes for them.

All of this research this week led to the RSM Classic. Find the standout finishes and why I think a correlation exists below.

J.J. Spaun - Spaun won here in 2022 and has finished 2nd, 13th, 15th, and 16th at the RSM Classic.

Corey Conners - Two-time winner here, Corey Conners has also posted a top 10 at the RSM Classic

Andrew Landry - Landry won here in 2018 and has twice finished 4th at the RSM Classic

Kevin Chappell - Kevin Chappell won here after finishing 2nd and 4th at the course before. He's also finished 2nd and 8th at the RSM Classic.

Will MacKenzie - Not a name you would think of, but it's noticeable that MacKenzie finished 2nd at both the Valero Texas Open and the RSM Classic.

Daniel Summerhays - Has finished 2nd, 4th, 7th, and 13th here. Has also finished 10th at the RSM Classic.

Matt Every - Every finished 2nd here and has also finished 7th at the RSM Classic.

John Huh - John Huh has a 2nd place finish here, and has finished 9th, 12th, and12th again at the RSM Classic.

Freddie Jacobson - The Swede posted a 2nd here and a 5th at the RSM Classic.

Patrick Rodgers - Rodgers has finished 5th here in the past, and his best chance of a PGA Tour win came at the RSM Classic, where he lost in a playoff.

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 Valero Texas Open

Here are four picks at +4000 and bigger for the 2024 Valero Texas Open.

Billy Horschel just missed out on this list, as he dropped to +3500 before posting. He is my favorite pick of the week.

Alex Noren +3300 (FanDuel)

We have just seen Stephan Jaeger finally rewarded for some incredible consistency, as he picked up a win at last weekend's Houston Open. One player who could fit that bill, and only needs to improve slightly to contend, is the Swede, Alex Noren.

Like Jaeger, who had won six times on the Korn Ferry Tour, Alex Noren has proven elsewhere that he can win, despite never winning on the PGA Tour. Noren is a 10-time DP World Tour winner, and while he's not yet won at this level, he has posted top 10s in two majors, and has lost in a playoff at Torrey Pines, so we know he can compete.

Noren has made 15 of his last 18 cuts with a 3rd place finish at the Shriners and a 2nd at the Bermuda Championship in the Fall Swing the highlights. He comes into this one off the back of three straight top 20s at the Cognizant Classic (9th), the Players (19th), and the Houston Open (11th) in recent weeks, so he looks in strong form. He's made the cut in his last 11 straight events, so he's played plenty of weekends in recent months, and that's important.

The Swede isn't in the Masters field next week as it stands, and that is a huge carrot dangled for a player, that would typically expect to play in major championships.

Alex Noren dropped to +3300 after posting, leaving him in at the price, but he is no longer available at 40/1.

Kyoung-Hoon Lee +12000 (FanDuel)

Kyoung-Hoon Lee has won twice in Texas already, winning the Byron Nelson in back-to-back years, and I think he can add a win at the Valero Texas Open to his resume.

Lee is finding some form of late, with two top 9 finishes in his last four starts, both of which came in Florida. Lee finished 4th at the Cognizant Classic, and 9th at the Valspar Championship, and hopefully, his 31st-place finish at the Houston Open is a building block in Texas.

In three starts here, Lee has finished 14th, 23rd, and then missed one cut, but it is his 14th on debut that looks so encouraging. He was 4th after 54 holes that week, and I think with the form he is showing, and his two wins at the Byron Nelson, Lee is worth looking at, at triple-digits.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore has found plenty of form of late, and when a veteran of the Tour and a former 5-time winner is showing those signs, we should certainly take a second look, especially on a course he likes.

In his first four starts at this golf course, Moore finished 8th, 18th, 7th, and 3rd, and given the way he is hitting the ball right now, we shouldn't bet against him adding to that list.

It has been 8 years since Moore won on Tour, but he has been dealing with injuries, and that has to be considered. I am always keen to follow a former star's journey back from injury, and it is clear Moore is doing well in his comeback.

When 7th, Moore was the 36-hole leader, and he's also a former playoff loser at the Byron Nelson, so he's got form in Texas to consider as well.

Ryan Moore's form first picked up in the Fall Swing, and that included a T8 finish at the RSM Classic which I love from a correlation standpoint. I love that he has ranked 9th, 2nd, and 8th in SG Approach, and 16th, 1st, and 16th in SG Tee to Green in his last three starts, as it suggests the foundations are there for him to contend.

Max Greyserman +18000 (DraftKings)

Max Greyserman has found some form of late, and he's starting to look comfortable on the PGA Tour, after making the jump from the Korn Ferry.

Greyserman finished 56th at the American Express, to split two missed cuts at the start of the season, but since then, things have looked a lot tidier.

He was forced to withdraw from the Mexico Open but then finished 47th at the Cognizant Classic a week later. On the face of it, that looks like an average performance, but he was 11th going into Sunday, so that was potentially the start of this current run. He has since finished 15th at the Puerto Rico Open, where he was inside the top 10 after each of the first three rounds, and a solid 33rd at the Valspar was a great addition to this form.

His 7th last week at the Houston Open was no doubt his standout finish, where he grew into the event, getting better after every round. That's encouraging as he returns to a course he finished 18th on when he was still on the Korn Ferry Tour.

A win in this event would be a jump, considering he hasn't won at any level since turning pro, but at 180-1, he looks decent enough value even if just to place, after finishing 7th last week.