PGA Championship Picks: Our Experts' Longshot Picks

PGA Championship Picks: Our Experts' Longshot Picks

The PGA Championship gives us a second chance at predicting a longshot winner in the majors this season. Jon Rahm slipping on the Green Jacket this year meant we drew a blank at the Masters, but can we find a pick at +4000 and bigger who can win the 2023 PGA Championship?

Geoff Fienberg, Rick Gehman, Brian Kirschner, Sam Eaton, Bradley Todd, and Tom Jacobs all pick their favorite PGA Championship longshot and tell us why we should all be looking for them as the best value in the PGA Championship field this week at Oak Hill.

With our handicappers agreeing on a couple of big selections this week at +9000 and +10000, there is plenty of excitement about the PGA Championship longshot picks this week.

This week's longshots start at +9000 and get as long as Brian Kirschener's +12500 bet, so let's see who our team believes can get the job done at Oak Hill.

So, before you make your PGA Championship picks this week, make sure you see which longshot picks our team of experts think are worth backing.

Looking to bet on the 2023 PGA Championship? Before you do, make sure you claim over $5,000 in free bets from OddsChecker!

PGA Championship Longshot Picks

Geoff Fienberg: Joaquin Niemann (+9000) (Bet $100 to collect $9,100)

The 24 yr old Chilean is my favorite long shot this week at the PGA Championship.

I've always felt Niemann's game was perfectly suited to be a future PGA Champion and I would happily sign a 10 yr contract right now with any sportsbook to lock in this number on Niemann for this event for the next decade... I'll pay upfront.

I'm not concerned about any LIV dynamics for this event and I fully expect a handful of them to play to the talent we know they have, with Niemann leading the charge in my opinion. 16th at the Masters, with some sloppy approach play once again shows he has the game for tougher tests even when everything isn't firing perfectly.

Add in a strong resumé on Northeast golf courses, with his name popping up near the top on other Donald Ross designs as well, and one of the players in the field whose best work has come on bentgrass greens, and you have a strong selection.

Very few players in the longshot range whom I'd consider OakHill an ideal test for their skill set.. . NIEMANN tops the list

-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)

Rick Gehman: Gary Woodland (+11000) (Bet $100 to collect $11,100)

This Championship will demand distance and precision off-the-tee with the ability to move the club through the thick rough all around this golf course. Woodland has been phenomenal off-the-tee, gaining strokes in 12 straight events. His approach play is dialed-in but he has plenty of concerns with his putter. If he can be remotely average with the putter this week, he'll provide plenty of opportunity to contend.

-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)

Brian Kirschner: Keegan Bradley (+12500) (Bet $100 to collect $12,600)

The 2011 PGA Championship and 5-time PGA Tour winner has had quite the career resurgence recently. Keegan got back into the winner's circle this past fall at the ZOZO Championship.

There are always two times I like to target Keegan, on northeast bent courses and long difficult courses that reward ball striking. Luckily, Oak Hill checks both of these boxes.

This Boston native, who went to college in New York has finished 7th at the 2022 U.S Open, 2nd at the 2022 Wells Fargo, 11th at the 2021 Northern Trust, and 2nd at the 2019 Travelers Championship in the Northeast.

It is also worth noting that 4 out of 5 of Keegan's victories have come on bent grass greens. Although 2023 has been nothing to write home about, he still has a solo second-place finish at Farmers and a 10th-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Given his elite ball-striking, It is really no surprise that these were both long difficult golf courses. Keegan has been vocal about vying for a Ryder Cup spot and wanting more respect from his peers after not being invited to the big Tour meeting in Delaware. A motivated Keegan, showing up to a long difficult golf course in the northeast is without question an extremely viable longshot option.

-- Brian Kirschner (@BrianKirschner_)

Sam Eaton: Gary Woodland (+11000) (Bet $100, to collect $11,100)

If you follow me on Twitter this pick would have been fairly obvious. I've unfortunately been backing Gary Woodland over the last few weeks waiting for his putter to heat up.

This hasn't happened, but I'm willing to follow him again at the PGA Championship. The rest of his game is in great shape, and at The Wells Fargo he gained 12 shots T2G, 4.6 shots OTT, and 5.4 shots in approach, however, he dropped 3.5 shots putting.

He can putt on this surface, at the Fortinet he gained shots with the putter in two rounds. However, there's not too much lately which makes you think his putting will improve. I still can't get away from the fact that he ranks 2nd in my model over the last three months though, and at a monster price, he's a risk worth taking.

-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)

Bradley Todd: Joaquin Niemann (+9000) (Bet $100 to collect $9,100)

Joaquin Niemann appears to have turned a corner recently. He finished 16th at the Masters and has continued to play well with a 10th in Singapore and an 8th-place finish, last week in Tulsa.

How valuable this form is on the LIV tour is debatable, nonetheless from the limited stats you can see he is hitting the ball a lot better.

Niemann ranked 10th in driving distance, 9th in driving accuracy, and 3rd in greens in regulation last week. He opened with a round of 64, shot 70 in the 2nd round, and closed with a 65 to show he's in decent scoring form.

It will be a completely different ball game at Oak Hill, although we've seen with Niemann in the past that he can handle a tough test. He won in some style at Riviera and has a fantastic record at Muirfield Village, two courses that share some similarities with Oak Hill.

Niemann has also finished 2nd and 5th at the Donald Ross-designed Detroit Club and his breakthrough win at Old White TPC also came on Bentgrass greens. These are all interesting pointers to Oak Hill.

We know he's an exceptional driver and he carries it far which is a massive advantage at this course. Bent grass seems to be his preferred surface and he's trending into form at the right time.

It's tough to know what to expect from the LIV players at this stage, however, if these players continue to be denied world ranking points, then the majors become even more important. It's the only way they can improve their ranking and qualify for future majors. Niemann has no major exemptions and I expect him to go well this week on a course that should suit him.

-- Bradley Todd (@Bradley_Todd)

Tom Jacobs: Justin Rose +11000 (Bet $100, to collect $11,100)

I love where Rick and Sam are at with Gary Woodland and he is also part of my staking plan, but in the interest of giving a unique selection, I am also very keen on Englishman, Justin Rose for the second-straight major.

Rose has plenty of form in the Northeast, having won the 2013 US Open at Merion, as well as being a winner and runner-up at Aronimink in the past, and when you add in two runner-up finishes at East Lake and 6th and 16th place finishes at Plainfield, another Donald Ross course in New Jersey, you have form not only on Ross designs but also form in this part of the country.

Since winning for the first time in four years at Pebble Beach earlier this year, Rose has finished T6 at The Players, 16th at the Masters where he was 9th after 54-holes, and also 25th last time out at the RBC Heritage, where he was 2nd at the halfway stage.

This PGA Championship specialist, who has four top-10 finishes in this event, and has also not finished outside the top 29 in this event since 2017 can certainly go close once more.

Motivated to make the Ryder Cup team and looking to take advantage of hot form whilst he still can in a major setting, I see no reason for Rose to be double the price he was for the Masters last month.

-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)

Andy Lack: Shane Lowry +9000 (Bet $100, to collect $9,100)

I always love Shane Lowry on long, difficult golf courses in cold conditions. Public sentiment on the 2019 Open Championship winner is low right now due to a faulty putter, but Oak Hill will be a complete tee-to-green test that should really accentuate Lowry’s premier ball striking.

The Irishman hits the ball, is a top-seven long iron player in this field, and has an impressive resumé on long, tough, Bent-grass tracks such as Firestone, Oakmont, and Bethpage.

I expect him to surprise this week in Rochester.

-- Andy Lack (@adplacksports)