2023 Farmers Insurance Best Bets, Props: Top 20 Picks and More

2023 Farmers Insurance Best Bets, Props: Top 20 Picks and More

Starved for returns in the prop markets at the moment. Again, no luck last week with both Justin Suh and Benny An having chances to finish in the top 20 only for them to go backward in the final round. Frustrating, I've never had much luck at the AmEx so I'm delighted to see the back of that event. We stay in California this week for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. Course rotation is still in order with one round being played at the North course and three rounds at the much tougher, well-renowned South course. Below I've identified a couple of players that I want to chance in the Top 20 market and a player that has an outstanding chance of finishing Top Swede.

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Farmers Insurance Open Start Time, Where to Watch, and Latest Odds

• Date - Wednesday, January 25th - Saturday, January 28th, 2023
• Opening Tee Time - 12:00 p.m. ET - 7:00 p.m. ET
• Where - Torrey Pines Golf Course (South), Torrey Pines Golf Course (North)
• Where to Watch - Golf Channel, CBS, ESPN+

Click here for Farmers Insurance Open odds

The Farmers Insurance Open Prop Bets

Taylor Pendrith Top 20 (+250) Bet $100 to collect $350 BetRivers has the best odds, click here to bet

I recall thinking this time last year that I can see Taylor Pendrith going well at Torrey Pines. He showed all the attributes on the Korn Ferry Tour that equates to success here. In his final year on the Korn Ferry Tour, he ranked third in Driving Distance, ninth in Scrambling, and had a couple of Top 10's on POA Annua greens. Last year I didn't back him to win other than on the exchange at a silly price. When I saw him in and around the places going into the final round, I started fearing the worse. I thought I was about to miss out on a hefty each-way return. He finished T15th at the end which proved a great result for both of us.

I anticipate Taylor to play well again this week for the reasons I just mentioned. I believe he's a great fit for this test of golf. He ticks a lot of boxes. One of the biggest hitters on tour, a great long iron player, and a tidy short game and he putted well on the South Course POA Annual greens gaining over two strokes on the field last year. Taylor had an excellent debut season on the PGA Tour last year. He was runner-up at the Rocket Mortage, T8th at the BMW Championship, and had multiple top 20 finishes. He's available at a generous price this week coming off an MC where he shook off some holiday rust. I have every confidence Taylor can secure back-to-back top-20 finishes at Torrey Pines this week.

Matti Schmid Top 20 (+500) Bet $100 to collect $600 DraftKings has the best odds, click here to bet

Matti Schmid secured his best-ever finish on the PGA Tour last week at the AmEx. The upcoming young German fired a round of 64 to finish in a tie for sixth. He could quite easily be a PGA Tour winner already having led the Barbosol going into the final round. Unfortunately, nerves got the better of him that day as he shot a round of 77 to fall down to eighth. Once a top amateur, Matti was statistically solid across the board at the Amex but especially excelled in ball striking. He ranked out on top in driving distance, ball striking, and eighth on approach.

Matti played as an amateur at the 2021 US Open at Torrey Pines, so he has some experience to draw from this week. He's proven in the past to be quite unpredictable and frustrating to bet on but he's still young and has a ridiculously high ceiling. Tough to ignore him for this one, Torrey Pines seems an excellent fit for his current skill set. He also seems upbeat on social media to keep it going this week and I think he'll do just that. I was contemplating a top European bet but with Rahm back to his best, I feel as though a Top 20 or even a Top 40 is the smartest way to play Matti this week.

Vincent Norrman Top Swedish (+200) Bet $100 to collect $300 BetMGM has the best odds, click here to bet

This is probably my pick of the bunch. There are three Swedes in the field this week. Henrik Norlander, David Lingmerth and Vincent Norrman. The big-hitting Vincent Norrman graduated from the Korn Ferry Tour last year and has undoubtedly struggled to adapt to life on the PGA Tour. His numbers on Korn Ferry Tour were very Pendrith-Esque hence why I'm drawn to chance him here. He ranked 24th in Driving Distance, second in GIR, first in Ballstriking, and seventh in Scrambling. Vincent hasn't been able to get anywhere near those numbers this year on the PGA Tour, except for his driving distance. However, he made the cut last week at the AmEx for the first time since the Fortinet Championship, another event on the west coast. He finished T54th, hit it superbly off the tee but struggled on approach and around the greens.

I'm banking on him building some confidence up from that performance. He was a top amateur, climbing as high as fourth in the world, and again looking at his skill set from the KFT, this should be right up his street and down his alley. Granted he's not the same player at the moment and it's a much stronger field of players that he's dealing with. Although after gaining some confidence last week from playing weekend golf for the first time in a while, I'm willing to chance him in this market. Fingers crossed he might only need to make the cut to win this bet.

Looking at his two opponents in this market, Henrik Norlander is no doubt the biggest threat of the two. He's played at Torrey Pines six times before missing the cut four times but has a 46th and second place finish to his name. A real mixed bag and having looked at that second place, Henrik was playing some of his best golf back in 2021. Although, it was still a surprise at the time. He kept his card last year at the Korn Ferry Tour finals but hasn't been playing that much recently. We last saw him eight weeks ago at the RSM Classic back in November.

Looking at how well he plays off a similar type of break gives me even more hope this week. Henrik had a seven-week break between the RSM Classic and Sony Open last year and finished 55th. He also had a 13-week break between the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Charles Schwab Challenge back in 2020 but he missed the cut. He usually doesn't have this much time off so I'm counting on a bit of rust from Henrik this week.

As for David Lingmerth, I can't think of many courses that could be worse for him than Torrey Pines. He's played here four times before, missing the cut three times with 46th being his best finish back in 2014. David has the type of courses that he shows up at and he's had an excellent start to the season with three top-11 finishes. However, he recently had a disappointing missed cut at the Sony Open and followed it up with another missed cut at the AmEx. They both have the experience of young Vincent which might well prevail in the end. Nevertheless, taking everything into account, it seems like a great time to take both of these two players on. I believe Vincent Norrman presents great value in this market.

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