Sony Open Expert Picks: Our Experts' Longshot Picks

Sony Open Expert Picks: Our Experts' Longshot Picks

After last week's Sentry Tournament of Champions that saw Jon Rahm win as Collin Morikawa collapsed, were at the Sony Open this week and the Waialae Country Club in Hawaii.

The Sony Open field is an interesting one as Tom Kim comes in as the favorite, but there is plenty of value to be had with big names when it comes to Sony Open odds.

Throughout the week, you've seen as we've rolled out our experts' favorite Sony Open picks, but if you're looking for something at a little bigger price then you've come to the right place.

Our team of expert golf handicappers have come up with their favorite Sony Open longshot picks, coming our way at odds of +3500 or longer, and you don't want to miss some of the lottery tickets these guys have found on the odds board.

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Sony Open Longshot Picks

Sam Eaton: Si Woo Kim @ +5000 (Bet $100 to collect $5,100)

I was quite surprised to see Si Woo Kim at 50/1 in this field, even with his less-than-impressive event history. Si Woo Kim did score a 4th finish in the Sony Open in 2016 but has since failed to finish in the top 20. Si Woo Kim should fit this course as he hits the fairway and has a solid approach game. He's 50/1 due to his putter, and this surface isn't his best. However, he can randomly get hot, which he showed at the 2021 Sanderson's, an event at which he's putted terribly in the past.

-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)

Brian Kirschner: Andrew Putnam +5500 (Bet $100 to collect $5,600)

This Pepperdine grad had a stellar swing season that nearly resulted in a victory, and I like him to start 2023 with a great result. 2019 runner-up at the Sony Open, Putnam has always seemed to do his best work on shorter positional golf courses. With a 6th place earlier in 2022 at Pebble Beach and a 3rd place finish in 2019 at Colonial, Putnam knows these are the events he's live to win. He has quietly played some excellent golf, as over the last 50 rounds, he ranks 4th in Strokes Gained total. I think the value on him this week at +5500 is too good to pass up.

-- Brian Kirschner (@BrianKirschner_) 

Andy Lack: Alex Smalley @ +5500 (Bet $100 to collect $5,600)

The former Duke standout ended the fall swing with three top-12 finishes, including back-to-back top-fives at the Houston Open and RSM Classic. The 26-year-old now travels to Hawaii filled with confidence, and his resume at both Bermuda and coastal courses is remarkably strong, with a runner-up at the Corales Punta Cana, a sixth at the Mexico Open, and the aforementioned fifth at the RSM Classic. I expect Smalley to continue his momentum and find himself firmly in the mix come Sunday afternoon in Honolulu.

-- Andy Lack (@adplacksports)

Tom Jacobs: Mackenzie Hughes @ +6600 (Bet $100 to collect $6,700)

Mackenzie Hughes won the Sanderson Farms earlier this season, played brilliantly at the Houston Open beige the break, and then came right back last week and posted two great rounds at the Tournament of Champions.

Since his win, he has struggled to piece together all four rounds, but he’s continually showing his strong form, and he can build on that spike rounds this week, and play well all week long!

His best finish at the Sony Open remains his 19th here two years ago, but that week he posted two 65s and a 66, with just one round holding him back from a top finish.

Even on debut, when he finished 27th, he shot a round of 65, and three 68s so he’s more than capable of shooting in the mid-60s here, and getting in the mix.

Coming into the event off the back of a solid week at the Tournament of Champions has only boosted his chances here, and this course is certainly more suited to style of play.

At 66–1, he’s great value to win for a second time this season.

-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)

Geoff Fienberg: Mackenzie Hughes @ +6600 (Bet $100 to collect $6,700)

This one is playing off recent history, in which 8 of the previous 9 winners of the Sony played at Kapalua the previous week. In addition, many of these Sony wins came directly off of middling performances at the TOC, and that is exactly where we found Mac's result last week. Hughes is known for his excellent short game, which is paramount here, and his weakness off the tee is negated. He'll get to play his driver into short irons and wedges all week.

-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)

Stuart Durst: Webb Simpson @ +7000 (Bet $100 to collect $7,100)

While we’ve all witnessed the decline of Webb Simpson over the last two years, I’m willing to give him a shot here. He has three top 5 finishes over his last four appearances at Waialae and has never missed the cut here in 13 chances. At a course that emphasizes driving accuracy, short game, and scoring, an in-form Webb Simpson should really be able to contend, especially at 70/1 in a field where Tom Kim is the favorite! Even with the bad recent form, he’s still tied with Justin Thomas for the most sub-65 rounds on Tour since 2019. We know he can score. Finally, in 47 rounds and this course he’s scored better than par in 46 of them. It’s worth a flier at the current price. 

-- Stuart Durst (@MonotoneFootbal)

Rick Gehman: Will Gordon @ +8000 (Bet $100 to collect $8,100)

Gordon has transformed into a completely different player since last summer. His last 12 events have been stellar, gaining strokes to the field in each one. The key contributor is his driver as he has been separating himself from the rest of the field off-the-tee. His 2022 ended with a T15 at the RSM Classic and he also popped to a T3 in Mayakoba. His game is sharp and he should set-up quite well for Waialae Country Club.

-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)

Bradley Todd: Robby Shelton @ +10000 (Bet $100 to collect $10,100)

There were quite a few longshots that appealed this week but Robby Shelton stood out as the best option. He’s back on the PGA Tour and he’s really impressed, missing just one cut from 7 starts along with a T10th finish last time out at the RSM Classic. His all-around game has looked solid. He finished T25th on his last visit to Waialae CC, carding 4 rounds in the 60s. Also, I like to see that T6th at the Mayakoba which is a similar type of test to what we’ll see this week. He comes into this in great shape, better equipped and looking like great value. I fancy he could spring a surprise here in Hawaii.

-- Bradley Todd (@Bradley_Todd)

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