Sentry Tournament of Champions Prop Picks and Best Bets: Is it Brian Harman's Time to Strike?
Sentry Tournament of Champions Prop Picks and Best Bets: Is it Brian Harman's Time to Strike?
The PGA Tour returns this week for the calendar-opening Sentry Tournament of Champions in Hawaii. Despite finding the winner last year with Cameron Smith, I've always found this a difficult event to get right. The majority of the players are coming off lengthy breaks and it's near on impossible to know where their game is. Given the reduced field size of 39, the task of finding value in the prop markets becomes a little bit tougher. There will definitely be better events down the line, but for now, I've identified three Sentry Tournament of Champions picks that I'm confident will give us a decent run this week.
Sentry Tournament of Champions Prop Bets and Best Bets
Seamus Power Top 10 @ +275 (Bet $100 to collect $375) Don't wait, head to DraftKings now to get these odds
Seamus Power finished the year in excellent form. Before his win at the Bermuda Championship, he was going through a really rough patch. That win seemed to spark him into life. He then followed that up with a 3rd at the Mayakoba and a 5th at the RSM Classic to close out his year. It's also encouraging to see he ranked 3rd on approach and 5th T2G last time out. I fancy he can carry over that good form this week.
He impressed on his debut here last year. Despite opening with a round of 71, he carded three rounds in the 60s to finish 15th. The Plantation Course feels like a great fit for Power. He's above average in driving distance, putts well on bermudagrass, is ranked 3rd in the field for birdies or better % in his last 24 rounds and loves playing golf with a sea breeze. As we saw last year, if the conditions are tame the scoring will get out of hand. The wind is the only real defense here.
It can all change, but an early look at the weather suggests we're in for another birdie fest. If the weather was to take a turn for the worse, we've got a player in Power who is more than comfortable playing in tough, windy conditions. It's also worth mentioning that after a series of underwhelming results at the Sony Open, Power registered a 3rd-place finish last year, which will put him in good stead as he returns to Hawaii this week.
Given the level of the field, it's tough to envision him winning. Having said that, I'm not against the idea of having a small wager on the win as he's a player on the rise, in excellent form and it's a great course for him. Stranger things have happened. I'd much rather take the safer route for him to finish inside the top 10, which I believe he's more than capable of achieving.
Seamus Power Top GB & Ireland Player @ +140 (Bet $100 to collect $240) Back this Sentry TOC pick at BetMGM now
I'm going to double down on Seamus Power. This is effectively a head-to-head bet with Matthew Fitzpatrick and he's rightly the underdog, but I have reasons to believe he might just get the better of Fitzpatrick this week.
Matt had an excellent year, breaking through in the states in style as he won the US Open back in June. He's added distance off the tee, possesses an incredible short game and enjoys playing with a sea breeze, all of which will come in handy this week. However, this is his first time competing at the Plantation Course, and in Hawaii, and although it's a relatively easy course to crack on paper it has proven over the years that it helps to have experience. This can only give Power the upper hand.
We last saw Matt Fitzpatrick at the Hero World Challenge and I, unfortunately, backed him that week, thinking the conditions would suit him. He finished 13th and despite closing with a round of 67, he was very disappointing. Come the end of the year, he definitely stood out as one of the players that could do with a break and the worry is he'll come back fresh and raring to go.
As I eluded to earlier, it's tough to know what to expect but what we do know is Power was exceptional before the break and shapes up well for this test. I also can't help but feel that Power will be extra motivated to prove himself among the best, and with the Ryder Cup around the corner, it's the perfect opportunity to stake a claim.
Brian Harman Top 10 @ +260 (Bet $100 to collect $360) FanDuel has the best odds for this play right now
Harman is another player that finished 2022 in excellent form, to the point where he probably didn't welcome the break. In his last 7 starts, he hasn't finished worse than T35th and has a 3rd place and back-to-back runner-up finishes to end the year.
There arguably isn't anyone in the field with better recent form than Brian Harman. Similar to Power, the hope is that he can carry over that good form to this week. He's played here twice before, albeit a long time ago, but he has a 3rd and 17th to his name.
The course looked to be playing tough both years, which some people might argue would suit Harman better, but given the form he's shown to close the year, I'd say he's well-equipped for a birdie fest.
He's coming into this off the back of 8 consecutive rounds in the 60s. We know with Harman he's not going to overpower the course but he'll make up for that with his approaches and brilliant short game.
Distance OTT isn't everything here as we've seen in the past with Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker winning in previous years. He's lethal on bermudagras greens and I feel as though he'll make more than enough birdies this week to sneak his way into the top 10.
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Article Author
Bradley Todd is best known for his knowledge of golf on a global scale. He shares his bets across all the tours on his Patreon and has turned a profit of 700+ points for the last three years. He can also be found weekly on the Lost Fore Words podcast contributing his thoughts of the upcoming PGA/DPWT events.