Oregon vs. Washington Prediction: Do Michael Penix Jr., Huskies Have the Edge in Pac-12 Championship?

Oregon vs. Washington Prediction: Do Michael Penix Jr., Huskies Have the Edge in Pac-12 Championship?

Since Washington defeated Oregon 36-33 in a nail biter last month, each of these teams have been trending in different directions. Oregon has basically steam rolled every single team they have faced. Oregon beat every single team they faced after that loss by at least 14 points except for a nine-point win against USC in a game where Oregon was leading 36-14 with 11 minutes left.

Oregon vs. Washington Date, Start Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: December 1, 2023
• Game Time: 8:00 pm ET
• Where to Watch: ABC

Oregon vs. Washington Prediction

Oregon has been getting a lot of love from the committee because of their insane offensive and defensive metrics coupled with their large margin of victory in nearly all of their games. While Oregon and Bo Nix have beaten up on bad teams, they have struggled a tad when faced up against teams of similar caliber. They struggled on the road against Texas Tech early in the season in a game they easily could have lost as they were actually losing with under two minutes in that contest.

Then they lost a nail biter to Washington in a game where they probably outplayed the Huskies as they outgained them by over 100 yards but missed a key field goal that could have sent the game to overtime and also went zero for three on some key fourth downs that killed multiple drives. Last week they blew out Oregon State 31-7 but this performance needs to be taken with a grain of salt because it has been reported that Oregon State's coach, Jonathan Smith, had told his team that he would be leaving for Michigan State sometime before the game so you have to wonder how much motivation the Beavers had knowing that their coach was leaving, and you have to imagine they were a bit defeated before even stepping onto the field.

On the other side of this matchup, we have Washington who has been skating by bad teams in multiple games this season by slim margins. They should have lost to Arizona State as they won 15-7, they narrowly defeated a very bad Stanford team 42-33, and last week they needed a last second field goal to beat a Washington State team with absolutely nothing to play for. Washington is a team who seems to play up or down to their competition this season but has done just enough to win games.

In the original matchup between Oregon and Washington, the Huskies were three-point home favorites which basically means that if Oregon were at home, they would also be -2.5- or three-point favorites but on a neutral field, would be closer to a pick 'em. Fast forward to today and we do get a matchup of these two teams on a neutral field but yet Oregon finds themselves as a ten-point favorite. This seems like a huge overreaction to me simply based on a few poor Washington performances against bad teams.

I do not believe Washington or Michael Penix Jr. are getting enough credit for going into Corvallis and beating Oregon State as underdogs, as Oregon State has had one of the more pronounced home field advantages over the past three to four seasons. That game was before any of the Jonathan Smith noise and could have been the loss that pushed Smith out the door to Michigan State.

While Oregon has been a freight train and performed very well over the last month and a half, they are still similar in talent to this Washington team and there are no key injuries that would have pushed this spread from what would have been a pick 'em on a neutral in Week 7 to NOW a ten-point spread on a neutral.

I believe Oregon is the better team, but this spread has simply gotten a little out of hand for no other than reason than public perception on Oregon being at its highest and public perception on Washington being at its lowest after a near loss as 17-point favorites to Washington State. With that being said, I am rolling with Washington +10 at -110 for 1.5U as my most confident College Football play of the day as I think the Huskies either win straight up or keep this game somewhat close.

Oregon vs. Washington Pick

1.5U Washington +10 -110 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

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College Football Odds

• Click here for Oregon vs. Washington odds
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