CFP National Title Game Prediction: Should We Back the Bulldogs in the Rematch?

CFP National Title Game Prediction: Should We Back the Bulldogs in the Rematch?

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Alabama vs. Georgia Prediction

It's Nick Saban and Alabama as an underdog in the national title game -- the first time that's happened since he was at LSU in 2003. They juuust beat this team and have the better quarterback. We also get them at plus money... sounds like a compelling case for Alabama, right?

I've analyzed this game more than any other this season, including watching their recent meeting in the SEC title game three times. I've come to the conclusion that the value is actually on the moneyline for Georgia.

This handicap boils down to my expectation for regression from the last matchup. Georgia's offense should find more success, especially on the ground after their worst rushing performance of the season. The Bulldogs' defense is one of the best units ever in college football, and they should be better prepared in this rematch. Additionally, I think there is a discount on the money line as a 2.5-3 point favorite given how public betting influences high profile/marquee games.

Alabama vs. Georgia Breakdown

Key Notes

• I expect Georgia to find more success on offense through a more effective running game which will, in turn, allow more success for Stetson Bennett through the air against a banged-up Alabama secondary.
• Positive regression for Georgia's defense and negative regression for Alabama's offense is likely. The Crimson Tide had a month to prepare and Bryce Young played a near-perfect game. I'm not sure he can sustain a repeat performance against the best defense in college football.
• As the 2.5-3 point favorite, Georgia should be a bigger favorite on the money line but the public flocks to Saban & Alabama as plus money underdogs, providing some extra value.

Alabama vs. Georgia Preview

Let's start with Georgia's offense. Stetson Bennett will need to be better in this game for Georgia to win. There are a few reasons I think that's likely, starting with the ground game. After giving the game another watch, I counted one broken tackle by their running backs all game. Yes, ONE broken tackle. UGA has a top-10 offensive line in the country and simply can't perform worse than they did, Georgia should find more success on the ground in this one which will open up the passing game for Bennett. He is prone to mistakes when under pressure or in known passing situations such as third down when the defense isn't worried about the threat of a run. If they can get the run game going, he should feel a bit more comfortable.

That takes us to the next reason I think he will perform at a higher level and avoid the costly turnovers -- Alabama's defense is less healthy than in their previous matchup. They'll be without their top cornerback in Josh Jobe, and their #2 CB was limited in practice. That leaves them with Kool-Aid McKinstry as the top guy (he's pretty good) but the #2 is now a 3-star junior college transfer that may struggle with the size & speed of Georgia's receiving core. Due to these injuries in the secondary plus a couple other question marks, I expect negative regression from Alabama's defense.

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While I do think Georgia will find more success on offense, what really matters in this one is their defensive performance. This is where I expect the most positive regression on Georgia's side & the opposite for Alabama's offense. This is one of, if not the, best defenses that I've ever seen in college football allowing just 7.2 points and 238 yards per game. I believe last game was a fluke and Alabama's offensive performance vs. Cincinnati didn't impress me.

In the SEC title game, Georgia gave up 500 total yards & failed to record a single sack. In addition to that, they gave up a total of 41 points including TWENTY-FOUR in one quarter. You've got to give credit to Alabama as offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien had a fantastic game plan and Bryce Young showed us why he is the Heisman winner -- however, I don't think they have the same level of success tonight. Without a month to prepare, it will be difficult to scheme up things Georgia hasn't already seen. Bryce Young was phenomenal, but I would be surprised if he could repeat that level of play. If I'm wrong, and he does, then Alabama has a serious path to victory and my analysis here won't matter all that much.

Georgia vs. Alabama odds

A couple key factors to note on offense for Alabama that aids my theory -- they will be without star wide receiver John Metchie, who recorded 97 yards and a touchdown in the SEC title game and had a few offensive linemen suffer injuries in their last game against Cincinnati. There's good reason to think even if these guys play, Georgia could find more success in the pass rush. Alabama's lack of depth at offensive line has been an issue for them all season, and was a big reason they lost to Texas A&M.

Alabama vs. Georgia Pick

This all takes us to the third and final angle that I covered in the overview. Usually, a favorite of this many points would be (-155) or (-160) on the money line, but tonight we have a marquee matchup that the public is all over. This reminds me of when the Patriots visited the Colts and the same thing happened with the casual bettor taking Belichick and the Patriots as plus money underdogs. The Colts closed at (-120) on the money line despite being a 2-point favorite. Given this public influence on the market, I prefer taking Georgia moneyline instead of the points, and I would bet this up to (-150) before laying off. If you do wish to bet Alabama, I recommend taking +3; however, I'm backing the best team in the country to win tonight.

The Pick

• Georgia Moneyline: -135 (Bet $100 to win $74.07)