Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Prop Pick: Will Dereck Lively Step Up in Game 4 Against Thunder?
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Prop Pick: Will Dereck Lively Step Up in Game 4 Against Thunder?
Dereck Lively II played great in Game 3, scoring 12 points in 27 minutes of action. He did a great job of protecting the rim, and has now played 20+ minutes in back-to-back games. I think he sees 20+ minutes again in Game 4, so we're going to target him with a prop ladder.
THUNDER VS. MAVERICKS GAME 4 DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: May 13, 2024
- Start Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: TNT
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Prediction
When Lively II plays 20+ minutes, he has 7+ points in 24 of the last 30 games, and 10+ in seven of the last 11 games. He has been extremely inefficient in the last two games, shooting just 21% from the field. On the season he shot 75%, for some perspective on how bad it has been. I expect some positive regression in this spot, but that’s not the only reason I really like this.
OKC opted to deploy the “Hack-a-Lively” strategy last game, where they would foul Lively intentionally to send him to the free throw line. He went 8-for-12 on free throws last game, which was very good for him (51% FT on the season). I think there’s a very real chance we see OKC try this again this game.
After the game, Kyrie Irving and Lively had some interesting quotes that give me even more confidence in this prop.
Kyrie Irving (talking about Lively running from Chet trying to foul him): “Man, you don’t have to do all that. Just let them foul you. Take it as a compliment and go up there and knock down your free throws, man. We believe in you. We know you put in a lot of reps.”
Dereck Lively II: “They think I can’t make free throws, so I’m going to step up and show them what I’m working on, show them the amount of time I put in, the effort I put in.”
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Prop Pick
1 Unit Pick: Dereck Lively II Over 6.5 Points (-115) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
0.25 Unit Pick: 10+ Points (+290) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
0.1 Unit Pick: 15+ Points (+1400) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds