Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction: Can Diamondbacks Light Up James Paxton, Dodgers?
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction: Can Diamondbacks Light Up James Paxton, Dodgers?
Today, the Los Angeles Dodgers travel to Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks. I can see this game being an absolute slugfest with runs and home runs, and because of that, I will be taking the over for this matchup. Over 9.5 runs is my favorite play of the day, and down below I will explain why.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: April 29, 2024
- Start Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction
We have a battle of left handers today with James Paxton for the Dodgers and Tommy Henry for the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks absolutely destroy left handed pitchers, their average is up to .318 against lefties, meanwhile the Guardians and Cubs are tied for second at .281.
James Paxton is off to a nice start going 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA but I don't think he will be enough to stop the left-hitting freight train that is about to hit. Paxton's advanced numbers also imply he is due for some regression this game. His effective velocity is the lowest its been in his entire career, and his hard-hit rate is 10 percentage points higher than last season. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is also atrocious, having struck out just 11 batters in four starts, while walking 17.
Other splits in Arizona's favor are third-best average in night games and sixth-best at home. This is a really perfect storm for them as the contrast of those splits are 29th in batting average against righties, 25th in day games, and 14th in away games. Tommy Henry is on the bump for the Diamondbacks today. Henry is off to an awful start with a 1-1 record, 5.55 ERA, and opponent batting average of .297. The advanced measurements do show that he has had a bit of bad fortune and is actually pitching better than last year, but it is still not enough that it would make a substantial impact here.
The Dodgers are an absolute machine and if you look at the stats, it looks like their record should be even better. Splits are crazy, .296 night game average is best in the big leagues, 18 points higher than the second-best Braves (Diamondbacks are third). They have a .278 average versus lefties, good for fourth in the league behind the Diamondbacks, Cubs, and Guardians. Their away game average is second-best at .286. A lot to like here today and this is my favorite play.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Pick
Pick: Over 9.5 Runs (-115) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds