St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Prediction: Will Jose Quintana, Mets Shut Down Cardinals on Sunday?
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Prediction: Will Jose Quintana, Mets Shut Down Cardinals on Sunday?
Today the St. Louis Cardinals play in New York versus the Mets. I don't see this game being very high scoring, and with a line of 8.5 total runs, I will be taking the under and down below I will explain why. I believe there is great value on this line, and it is my favorite play of the day.
Cardinals vs. Mets DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: April 28, 2024
- Start Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: MLB Extra Innings
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Prediction
With the line being at 8.5 runs today, I am liking the value on this play. It will be Lance Lynn versus Jose Quintana, not a stellar but also not a terrible matchup. I have seen some places with the line at 8, but on FanDuel I saw the 8.5 line, and I will take the extra .5 all day.
Firstly for this play, the Mets offense is solid in a lot of areas, but they hit .223 at their very pitcher-friendly home of Citi field, as opposed to .269 on the road. They also have performed better versus lefties than righties this season. Lance Lynn is coming off of another solid start and is looking the best he has in years, now that he is 100 percent healthy. In recent years, Lynn's kyrptonite has been the long ball. His fly ball percentages imply that he will be due for some regression at some point but not here.
Baseball Savant has Citi Field as the the second-least homer friendly park in the big leagues. Lynn particularly has allowed only two home runs in 18.2 career innings at Citi Field, which is less than one homer per nine innings. Conversely, at this point, when the Cardinals take on a left-handed starter, it is a good bet that they are going to do poorly offensively. They are hitting .200 on the season, they are also 27th in the day game average. Quintana is no world beater at this point in his career, but he is still a serviceable left-handed starter, which has proven to be enough to succeed against the Cardinals this season.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Pick
Pick: Under 8.5 Total Runs (-122) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds