US Open Odds: Can Favorite Matteo Berrettini Reach the US Open Semifinals After Round 1 Upsets?
US Open Odds: Can Favorite Matteo Berrettini Reach the US Open Semifinals After Round 1 Upsets?
The first round of the Men's US Open completely blew up the second quarter. With fourth seed Stefanos Tsitsipas and 10th seed Taylor Fritz eliminated, the draw is now wide open. Sportsbooks are backing Matteo Berrettini to return to the semi-finals for the first time since 2019.
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US Open Semifinal Odds Breakdown
Berrettini is given +185 odds, or an implied 35.1% chance of reaching the US Open semi-finals. His biggest competition is expected to be Casper Rudd who’s given +400 odds, or an implied 20% chance. That said, the odds are a testament to how competitive this draw is now. Six players are given at least a 10% chance to win this quarter. Only three are given at least a 10% chance to win the first quarter.
Even without Fritz, sportsbooks aren’t ready to dismiss the possibility of an American winning this US Open quarter either. Sebastian Korda is given +900 odds, or an implied 10% chance. Tommy Paul is given +1000 odds, or an implied 9.1% chance. Sportsbooks are a little less optimistic about the two young Americans who pulled off upsets with Brandon Holt given +6500 odds and Emilio Nava given +15000 odds.
This quarter is truly wide open. So many young players now have a chance to make a breakthrough. Ruud has never made it past the third round at the US Open. Paul has never been passed the fourth round at any major. Same with Korda. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has a shot to make his first semi-final. With such a wide-open draw, anything is possible.
US Open 2nd QUARTER WINNER
| Odds | Player | Implied Odds |
|---|---|---|
| +185 | Matteo Berrettini | 35.1% |
| +400 | Casper Ruud | 20% |
| +550 | Andy Murray | 15.4% |
| +700 | Botic Van De Zandschulp | 12.5% |
| +800 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 11.1% |
| +900 | Sebastian Korda | 10% |
| +1000 | Tommy Paul | 9.1% |
| +3500 | Marton Fucsovics | 2.8% |
| +4000 | Daniel Elahi Galan | 2.4% |
| +5000 | Jordan Thompson | 2% |
| +6500 | Tim Van Rijthoven | 1.5% |
| +6500 | Brandon Holt | 1.5% |
| +8000 | Pedro Cachin | 1.2% |
| +15000 | Emilio Nava | 0.7% |
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