Kentucky Derby Field: Power Ranking the Entire Kentucky Derby Field

Ranking Each of the 2024 Kentucky Derby Horses

We can gawk and yap about value and odds, but at the end of the day, the Kentucky Derby is about winning. I'm going through the 20 current entrants in the Derby and the one alternate entry and ranking them on their likeliness to win. Let's get after it.

For the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds, click here

21: Mugatu (30-1)

I feel like the basement of power ranking of horses that are most likely to actually win the Derby has to be the horse who isn't actually in the race yet! Mugatu needs a horse to scratch in the current Derby field to draw in and then needs to make significant improvements and probably needs a total pace meltdown. This would be a Rich Strike-esque miracle if Mugatu wins this year.

20: Grand Mo the First (50-1)

Grand Mo the First had a couple of third place finishes in Derby prep races on his way to Louisville - but he was just flat out too slow in all of them to compete seriously at this stage. I strongly do not think that he is not going to win this Kentucky Derby, as I have had a very hard time drawing up any way that he gets it done. At least he drew into the race?

19: Catalytic (30-1)

I tend to not trust horses that have only ran in Florida now suddenly shipping to Kentucky for the biggest race in America. I guess he could improve off of his last effort trying a track outside of the Sunshine State, but I'm not going to bet a red cent on this one to win.

18: TO Password

The only thing that I can write in favor of this horse is that he has only raced two times in his career and maybe he's a monstrous flower waiting to bloom. I just was not impressed at all by this horse in his last race and I think he only is a factor in how fast the horses run up front. This rabbit won't take any money from me.

17: Endlessly (30-1)

Trainer Michael McCarthy has not been very enthusiastic about running this horse in the Kentucky Derby. He seems to want to run this horse in the American Turf earlier on the card, but the owners want to run for the big boy. I understand the Derby fever of the owners, but I can't take this horse seriously to win it. Even with my Cincinnati bias and this horse taking the Northern Kentucky route to Louisville, I can't do it.

16: West Saratoga (50-1)

I love this horse. I think he ran great in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. I think we all can appreciate a story about a horse who isn't the fastest or the strongest or the most expensive, but just puts himself in the right spot every single race and finds a way to get a piece of the purse. While I may sprinkle some money on this 11,000 dollar horse to finish underneath - I don't have much faith that he can win the 150th Derby.

For the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds, click here

15: Society Man (50-1)

This horse a month ago was a super long shot in the Wood Memorial and ran a solid second place finish. With Frankie Dettori getting the mount and a horse seemingly making big improvements at the right time - just maybe we'll see a wild long shot winner with Society Man. Not likely, but not impossible.

14: Epic Ride (30-1)

Epic Ride has drawn into the Kentucky Derby field after the scratch of Encino. This son of Blame ran a solid third in the Blue Grass Stakes, only losing to Just a Touch and Sierra Leone. He'll be the outside speed and shouldn't have too many horses in his way around the track. The question is how hard he'll have work to clear to the lead. If he doesn't grab the lead easily enough, he won't win. Not the worst "also eligible" horse we've seen in the Derby, but probably not the best.

13: Track Phantom (20-1)

I placed a small future wager on Track Phantom when he was all the rage after winning the Lecomte in January. Since then, he's just been ok, and hasn't shown enough to me that he can win the Kentucky Derby. With the equipment change of blinkers being added, I think that he's just going to send it to the lead and hope he can outlast. I respect the horse, but I think the added distance isn't going to help his cause.

12: Resilience (20-1)

Perhaps Resilience can improve off of his win in the Wood Memorial, but I am not super high on the chances of any horse coming out of that race. The competition I think was a bit soft, and the speed figures came back suspiciously high to me. I think it was a fluke performance and with tougher horses around, Resilience will settle back to being a good - not great - 3 year old.

11: Domestic Product (30-1)

Trainer Chad Brown seems a little nervous about this horse having some distance limitations to him, but thinks that if he gets a solid pace to run after, he could make some noise. With all of the attention going toward Sierra Leone, maybe the other Chad Brown runner will spring the upset under one of the best jockeys in the world - Irad Ortiz.

10: Mystik Dan (20-1)

Mystic Dan's win in the slop during the Southwest opened a lot of eyes, including mine. If it rains, I think you should look to this horse as a long shot with a live chance. If it doesn't rain, I don't think he's fast enough to catch the others in this field. I'm 50 - 50 on this horse, hence putting him 10th.

9: Stronghold (20-1)

The winner of the Sunland Derby and Santa Anita Derby is the only horse representing California racing in this year's Kentucky Derby. Stronghold has gone up against some of Bob Baffert's best, and if he takes a step forward, could certainly be in there with a chance as the field turns for home. He did just ship in from California this week, though, so I'm interested to see how the travel affects this son of Ghostzapper.

8: Honor Marie (20-1)

Whit Beckman and jockey Ben Curtis are going to need a few things to go their way in order to win the big race. They'll need other faster closers like Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom to get caught up in traffic or be just too far behind. He'll also need a hot pace to run after - which I'm thinking he'll get. The rest of it is just some racing luck.

7: Dornoch (20-1)

I think many will consider this ranking to be a little too high, as many have written Dornoch off after not running well in the Blue Grass Stakes. Dornoch is best on the lead, and trainer Danny Gargan seems confident that this half brother to last year's Kentucky Derby winner Mage can get the lead from the inside. Drawing post position #1, Dornoch should have the shortest trip around the track (simple geometry) and could save some energy and be a real threat if he has things go his way.

6: Just Steel (20-1)

What if Keith Asmussen won the Kentucky Derby in his first race as a jockey before his father Steve, the winningest trainer in North America, won his first? That'd be quite a story, and this son of Justify could be the one to write it. Trainer D Wayne Lukas is not afraid to run his horses a lot, as Just Steel will make his 11th career start this Saturday. I think that Just Steel ran a really quality Arkansas Derby behind Muth and could be dangerous if he can sit just behind the leaders and get a quality mid pack trip.

For the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds, click here

5: Forever Young (10-1)

I can't deny that this horse has put up fast times in his races in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Maybe he really is that good and will win this race. I respect Japanese racing and think that they've got a lot of things going their way. While I won't be betting at all on Forever Young, I gotta admit that I think the Japanese are getting close to their first Derby.

4: Catching Freedom (8-1)

Catching Freedom being in this spot is pretty cut and dry for me. I think he's a very talented horse, I just think that he's Sierra Leone 2.0 - and he ran 3rd to Sierra Leone in the Risen Star back in February. Maybe on a dry day he beats Sierra Leone and Track Phantom, but that's a hypothetical I'm not putting a ton of weight behind.

3: Just a Touch (10-1)

I think Just a Touch could go on to be something very special for trainer Brad Cox, and could maybe win this whole Kentucky Derby. The more I go back and watch the Blue Grass Stakes, the more impressed I am with Just a Touch almost holding off Sierra Leone after some historically fast fractions were set. He could be a super horse in the making and will be dangerous in this race.

2: Sierra Leone (3-1)

While I've been beating the Sierra Leone drum all week, I do have to admit that he is not the most likely winner on paper. I think that the race will set up well for Sierra Leone, and I think that he's going to be the one with the most gusto in the stretch - the question is whether or not he's going to be so far back that he has too much to do before the wire. I'm not too scared of many horses in this race, but there is one that I think deserves a quite a bit of attention.

1: Fierceness (5-2)

Price aside, Fierceness is the most likely winner of the race. His wins in the Florida Derby where he was on the lead and the BC Juvenile when he pressed the leaders and came from just off the pace were both incredibly impressive, and if Fierceness runs back to that form or improves on that form, watch out, because we could see history in the making.