Ranking Each of the 2024 Kentucky Derby Horses
Ranking Each of the 2024 Kentucky Derby Horses
With a big field of 20 horses trying the 150th Kentucky Derby, you'll have a lot of options to choose from as a horseplayer. But which horse should you pick to bet on in the Kentucky Derby? I am ranking each entrant from 20 to 1 in terms of their value to win the Kentucky Derby based on their morning line odds. Let's begin!
For the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds, click here
20: No. 10 TO Password (30-1)
The other Japanese runner tops my list as the least likely winner of the Kentucky Derby. This son of Copano Rickey is 2-2 in his short career, so I guess there is room for improvement. I was not impressed at all by his win in the Fukuryu Stakes. Winning by a snail's whisker after having everything in the race go his way. I'm happy the connections get a chance in the Derby, but sadly 30-1 is way too low of odds for his chances.
19: No. 16 Grand Mo the First (50-1)
Grand Mo the First (GMtF) is a son of Uncle Mo - an impressive sire owned by Mike Repole, the owner of Kentucky Derby favorite Fierceness. GMtF ran third to Fierceness in the Florida Derby by 16 lengths, and is just in this field today for the fun of it. I just don't think he's fast enough to be any factor in this Derby. 50-1 or higher is about right.
18: No. 5 Catalytic (30-1)
Catalytic beat Grand Mo the First in the Florida Derby by a solid 3 lengths, but I think that entire race (other than Fierceness) came up really weak. This son of Catalina Cruiser hasn't won a race since he broke his maiden on debut in October of 2023. Will his second lifetime win be the 150th Kentucky Derby? I have some serious doubts - and I'm not playing him anywhere around 30-1.
17: No. 15 Domestic Product (30-1)
Might be a hot take putting him this low on the list. After watching a number of workouts, and hearing the comments made by trainer Chad Brown, I feel like there are just too many things that need to happen for Domestic Product to be a real factor in this race. The connections will keep his odds lower than I think they should be, with Irad Ortiz riding and Chad Brown training. But too many things need to happen to make me confident at all in Domestic Product.
16: No. 13 West Saratoga (50-1)
The Iroquois Stakes is one of my favorite races of the year. It kicks off the Road to the Kentucky Derby and usually attracts a nice crop of above average 2 year olds that go on to be non-factors for the rest of the Triple Crown trail. West Saratoga, the winner of that race, has been sticking around, however. He hasn't won much, but he has been on the board in his last three starts. At extremely long odds like I think we're going to get with him, I think he's worth a tiny sprinkle.
For the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds, click here
15: No. 19 Resilience (20-1)
The winner of the Wood Memorial falls at #15 on my list. Trainer Bill Mott and jockey Junior Alvarado have teamed up for some huge wins together, but I just don't like their chances here at 20-1 or lower. I am going to be running my day through the opinion that the winner of the Derby did not get there through the Wood Memorial. The Wood Memorial hasn't produced a Derby winner since 2000 with Fusaichi Pegasus, and I won't be playing Resilience to break that streak.
14: No. 20 Society Man (50-1)
The post position 20 draw isn't optimal for any horse, but I don't think it'll hurt Society Man too much. This horse ran from mid-pack at very long odds to finish 2nd in the Wood Memorial behind Resilience. Both he and Resilience made big jumps in their speed figures, which makes me wonder if it was just a fluke. Still, Frankie Dettori hops aboard and I will trust him more at double the odds of Resilience.
13: No. 18 Stronghold (20-1)
Stronghold is going to be one of my favorite storyline angles to play this Kentucky Derby, although I'm not betting the farm on him to pull off the upset. Stronghold's dam, Spectator sadly died after giving birth to her first foal (Stronghold.) That little one grew up to be the winner of the Sunland Derby, Santa Anita Derby, and now gets a chance in the 150th Kentucky Derby. Always fun to root for the little guy, and Sharon and Rick Waller will at least have the hearts of many come Derby day. Their money too? Well, we'll see.
12: No. 14 Endlessly (30-1)
As a Cincinnati guy, I'm always going to try to support horses that take the path to the Kentucky Derby through Turfway Park. I just have a hard time getting around to feeling comfortable betting on a horse that I think is better suited for the American Turf earlier on the Derby day card. He was solid in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, which has been a key race for the Derby these last few years. I just feel like his best races will be on the turf later in his career.
11: No. 1 Dornoch (20-1)
I did place a future wager on Dornoch after his win over Sierra Leone in the Remsen. I also played a future on Sierra Leone. One of those horses has been tremendous, and one has been a bit frustrating. You can guess which colt is the frustrating one. I think that Dornoch will draw a little juice at the betting windows because of his name, his post position, and the fact that he beat Sierra Leone when they were 2. We're a long way from the Remsen, and sadly my hopes for this future wager to connect are not high.
10: No. 12 Track Phantom (20-1)
Very similar story to Dornoch with Track Phantom. Steadily improved in his starts after breaking his maiden in late November at Churchill Downs, then got beat by Sierra Leone on a sloppy track that was favoring horses on the lead in the Risen Star Stakes. After that, I hoped he would bounce back and really show what he was made of in the Louisiana Derby. He ran 4th and just kind of flattened out at the end. I think Steve Asmussen will have this son of Quality Road ready to go the 10 furlong distance and maybe have a shot if things go his way up front. He's just been a little disappointing for one that I thought was a real contender about 2 months ago.
9: No. 7 Honor Marie (20-1)
Whit Beckman teams up with jockey Ben Curtis to send Honor Marie to the Kentucky Derby. This is a colt with some solid late kick - similar that of a Catching Freedom and Sierra Leone. I don't think Honor Marie is as talented as some of the more stout late closers, but if Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom get caught up in traffic, perhaps this son of Honor Code can sneak through the crowd and score. I fear that a lot of bettors will be wise to Honor Marie after some strong workouts, however - meaning we may not get 20-1 on him.
8: No. 3 Mystik Dan (20-1)
If it's a rainy day on Saturday, you'd better believe that I'm going to be putting a lot of attention on Mystik Dan. Ran ok in the Arkansas Derby on a dry and fast track, but ran a tremendous race in the Southwest Stakes before that over a sloppy track. If you're looking for a mudder at a decent price - look no further.
7: No. 11 Forever Young (10-1)
We finally get to one of the top contenders on the morning line that I think is a bit overvalued. I don't put much into the visuals of workouts - especially Japanese workouts. They have their own way of doing things, and it has been working pretty well over the last couple of years. I just worry that it'll all be a little too much for this UAE Derby champion. It's a lot to ship over all the way to Kentucky - and I'm not willing to nibble at 10-1 or lower here with so many unknowns.
6: No. 9 Encino (20-1)
Godolphin Blue is a color that I have picked to win the Kentucky Derby before (Essential Quality in 2021) and this year I'm at least slightly interested in their runner in Encino. This son of former Derby Winner Nyquist won the Lexington in a very gutsy stretch battle. I just feel like this other OTHER Brad Cox horse could be very live at a high price. Axel Concepcion is not a household name quite yet, but a big performance here would go a long way to getting him into that upper echelon of jockeys.
For the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds, click here
5: No. 6 Just Steel (20-1)
Just Steel will be higher odds considering that he has not won a race since November 25th, 2023 (at Churchill.) Also, I just don't see people betting Keith Asmussen in his first riding derby. Just Steel has been running really well lately, likes the Churchill surface, and I believe that Keith Asmussen is a better jockey than those on social media would like you to believe. He's been riding like a banshee down at Oaklawn, and only ran 2nd by 2 lengths to the powerhouse that is Muth. Just Steel is a fantastic value play that I think could certainly hit the board and maybe even win this thing.
4: No. 4 Catching Freedom (8-1)
Flavien Prat is a very consistent rider in the Kentucky Derby, including a win (by DQ, but a win) with Country House back in 2019. Catching Freedom is a colt that will be almost certainly be running from the mid to back of the pack, and has put up speed figures that are similar to that of Sierra Leone. The only thing is, he has taken on Sierra Leone before, and was bested by both him and Track Phantom in the Risen Star. But that race was in the slop, so maybe that had something to do with Catching Freedom not being the best that day. If it's a nice dry day in Louisville, I like Catching Freedom's value to win the race.
3: No. 17 Fierceness (5-2)
I think that Fierceness is the most likely winner of the Kentucky Derby. He will have a wide trip around the track, but should be forwardly placed and have no one in front of him to stop him or slow him down on his way to a Derby 150 victory. When he's on, there is no doubt that he is the best in this field - but there have been multiple occasions (Champagne Stakes + Holy Bull Stakes) where he looked like an allowance level horse and not the Derby favorite. Which Fierceness will show up? I'm not willing to bet him at 5-2 or lower to find out.
2: No. 8 Just a Touch (10-1)
Just a Touch is this year's Mage to me. Not only is he breaking from post position 8, but I think that he ran very strong just behind the horse I think provides the most value in the Derby. Just a Touch ran a very strong second in the Blue Grass Stakes and at 10-1 on the morning line for just his 4th career start, I think that he could improve under Florent Geroux. He has finished 2nd in his last two races, and perhaps he can help you make some money this Derby either on top, in the money, or mixed into your exotic wagers. Just a Touch has great value to win.
1: No. 2 Sierra Leone (3-1)
My hope is that Sierra Leone will jump up a smidge in the odds to the likes of 7-2 or 4-1, which will make my valuation on him even stronger. This pricy son of Gun Runner has done very little wrong in his 4 race career, and should have a great set up for him to run down the front runners. Sierra Leone may not be fast enough to catch Fierceness when Fierceness has everything go his way, but if there is any kind of trouble for Fierceness and the horses up front, I feel very confident that Sierra Leone can circle the field and go as wide as he has to go to get it done. Whether your pick was ranked #20 or #1 on my list, good luck!