2024 Kentucky Derby Draw: Post-Position Analysis Winners and Losers
2024 Kentucky Derby Draw: Post-Position Analysis Winners and Losers
On Saturday afternoon at Churchill Downs, the field for the 150th Kentucky Derby was drawn and post positions were announced. Are the draws this year going to help or hurt some of this year's top contenders? Let's dig in and find out.
Post Positions and Morning Line
| Post | Horse | Morning Line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dornoch | 20-1 |
| 2 | Sierra Leone | 3-1 |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | 20-1 |
| 4 | Catching Freedom | 8-1 |
| 5 | Catalytic | 30-1 |
| 6 | Just Steel | 20-1 |
| 7 | Honor Marie | 20-1 |
| 8 | Just A Touch | 10-1 |
| 9 | Encino | 20-1 |
| 10 | T O Password | 30-1 |
| 11 | Forever Young | 10-1 |
| 12 | Track Phantom | 20-1 |
| 13 | West Saratoga | 50-1 |
| 14 | Endlessly | 30-1 |
| 15 | Domestic Product | 30-1 |
| 16 | Grand Mo The First | 50-1 |
| 17 | Fierceness | 5-2 |
| 18 | Stronghold | 20-1 |
| 19 | Resilience | 20-1 |
| 20 | Society Man | 50-1 |
Kentucky Derby Draw Fast Facts
- Derby favorite Fierceness draws the "dreaded" 17 post. This post has never produced a winning horse in the history of the Kentucky Derby. Furthermore, no horse breaking from post position 17 has finished in the top three since 1988, which is the longest drought for any post position. Could that change this year?
- Eight of the last 13 winners of the Kentucky Derby have started from post 13 or wider.
- Many will lament inside draws in the Derby, as the No.1 post hasn't won a derby since 1986 with Ferdinand. And the No. 2 post not winning since Affirmed in 1978 - that's 46 years!
- The No. 5 post has produced the most winners in the 149 previous editions of the Ketucky Derby - tallying 10 first place finishes.
For the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds, click here
Kentucky Derby Draw Winners and Losers
Winner: Dornoch
Normally, you'd think that drawing the No. 1 post would put Dornoch into the "loser" category, but I think that this draw solves the mystery of what the connections will do with him in this race. In the Bluegrass Stakes, he was not as forwardly placed as he was in in his more dominant races. Now, with 19 horses going to be crashing down on him from the outside, the plan will be just to send it to the front and see exactly what this colt is made of.
Loser: Mike Repole
It's silly to classify one of the most successful and prolific owners in our sport as a "loser" in any sense, but the owner of the Derby favorite in No. 17 Fierceness has been extremely bullish on his horse. Both Repole and trainer Todd Pletcher seemed very pleased with the outside draw for Fierceness, and will talk a big game going into the first Saturday of May. That being said - the 17 post has produced zero winners in the history of the race, and if Fierceness can't pull off this historic feat, I'd expect Repole will take a beating on social media. But, I'm sure we all can agree that we'd rather have a Derby favorite from the 17 post rather than a 50-1 shot from the 5.
For the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds, click here
Winner: Just a Touch
I'm looking to see who is going to be able to clear the lead and find themselves forwardly placed without having to work too hard, and I think that No. 8 Just a Touch should have quite a bit of room to his inside to work toward the front of the pack and save some ground. With the 2, 4, 5, and 7 horses all probably going to hang back for a mid-pack trip, I think that this son of Justify can make this lead and be a real threat from the 8 hole.
Loser: Forever Young
Forever Young is Japan's best chance of winning the Kentucky Derby since... well, last year! This horse was good in his Saudi Derby and UAE Derby wins, but now he takes on the best 3 year old colts that America has to offer, and is going to have to win it from off the pace from the 11 post, meaning that this is going to get a lot of dirt kicked up in his face for the first time, and I worry that it just may be a little too much too soon for Japan's top candidate in the 150th Kentucky Derby.
Winner: Fierceness
Despite the social media tightrope that his owner is walking, Fierceness getting the 17 post I think is actually a good draw for him. I went back and watched American Pharoah's 2015 Kentucky Derby win from post position 18, and I could very well see Fierceness doing the same thing. He is the fastest horse on paper in the race by far, so the plan should be to just let him sit an outside trip and not get slowed down all the way around the course. Every Derby is different, so don't get too caught up in the history of the 17 post. If Fierceness is that horse, he's that horse.