Ranking Each of the 2023 Kentucky Derby Horses
Ranking Each of the 2023 Kentucky Derby Horses
The 2023 field of the Kentucky Derby is one of the most wide-open in recent memory. Currently, only three horses have single-digit betting odds for the morning line, while 15 of the 20 horses are pegged between 15-1 and 50-1. In an effort to provide more clarity, I am ranking each entrant from 20 to 1 in terms of how likely I believe they are to win the Kentucky Derby. To be clear, I am not ranking based on quality or where I believe they will finish the race, but their likelihood of winning.
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20. Raise Cain (50-1)
The winner of the Grade II Gotham is a good story for trainer Ben Colebrook, but his distant fifth-place performance in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes showed the gap between him and the top competition.
19. Hit Show (30-1)
The inside rail is never easy and has not produced a winner since 1988. Jockey Manny Franco will have a tall task trying to get this son of Candy Ride to the winner's circle. He's an honest horse but is up against it in this spot.
18. Lord Miles (50-1)
The long-shot winner of the Grade II Wood Memorial has the pedigree to suggest that he will like running 1 1/4 miles, but his victory in the weak New York circuit doesn't pass the eye test. Additionally, his trainer, Saffie Joseph Jr., is 0-39 in stakes races in Kentucky over the last five years. Yikes!
17. Jace's Road (15-1)
Many are projecting Jace's Road to be near the lead. That might be true, but he had the perfect setup in the Grade I Louisiana Derby sitting just off of slow fractions and actually lost ground coming for home. Now the races get longer, the pace gets hotter, and the competition gets better. It's hard to see Jace's Road taking a step forward.
16. Continuar (50-1)
One of two Japanese horses in the field drew the far outside post. He will be trying to close late but has been outshined by his Japanese stablemate, Derma Sotogake, during morning workouts. His trainer, Yoshito Yahagi, upset the world two years ago by winning Japan's first two Breeders' Cup championships, so a third shocker might not be out of the question.
15. Sun Thunder (50-1)
The Ken McPeek-trained colt seems to have peaked three races ago in the Grade II Risen Star, where he finished second. Since then, he's had back-to-back uninspiring performances against better competition. He will try to close late, but there are far better closers in the field.
14. Practical Move (10-1)
The co-fourth choice on the morning line feels like a long shot to win. His pedigree and running style suggest that the 1 1/14 distance will be too far. Additionally, he likes to hug the rail right behind the leaders. He drew post No. 10, which will make that trip for jockey Ramon Vazquez a significant challenge.
13. Rocket Can (15-1)
Trainer Bill Mott is putting blinkers on this son of Into Mischief. He is impeccably bred and should relish the distance, but he seems to hang with other horses as he did while finishing fourth in the Grade I Arkansas Derby last time out. The equipment change feels like a Hail Mary, but he's got talent so it might be just want he needed.
12. Mage (15-1)
Coming out of South Florida, Mage is one of two horses in this year's Kentucky Derby that have only raced three times. His last effort in the Grade I Florida Derby was impressive as he nearly defeated 2022 Juvenile Champion Forte. However, this is a big spot for a lightly raced horse who has had struggles getting a clean break from the start gate.
11. Reincarnate (50-1)
There is no way you'll get 50-1 come post time, but the former Bob Baffert horse now running for trainer Tim Yakteen has loads of talent. He had legitimate trouble while finishing third in the Grade II Rebel Stakes but followed that up with an average performance in the Grade I Arkansas Derby. He should get a nice trip and will be forwardly placed. It would be surprising but not out of the realm of possibility for him to win.
10. Disarm (30-1)
The son of Gun Runner was impressive, finishing second in the Grade I Louisiana Derby. However, since that finish was not enough for him to qualify for the Kentucky Derby, he came back three weeks later to run in the Grade III Lexington to secure enough points for the starting gate. Now, he's racing for the third time in six weeks. His workouts have looked great, but I wonder how much will be left in the tank for the home stretch.
9. Skinner (20-1)
The last horse to draw into the field has a real shot. He's a deep closer with tremendous late speed and a pedigree to suggest that he will relish the 1 1/4 mile distance. He has been racing out at Santa Anita, which is typically not a track kind to closers. Coming to Churchill should be advantageous, and he will be rooting for a strong pace up front. He won't quite be Rich Strike Part II, but look for him to pick them off coming for home.
8. Confidence Game (20-1)
Perhaps the most mysterious horse in the race, Confidence Game, has had a fascinating last two months. In February, he came from off the pace to win the Grade II Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. It was one of the better wins of the prep season, but then his trainer Keith Desormeaux decided to hold him out of the final round of preps. By the time the starting gates open on Saturday, it will have been 70 days since his last race, which is atypical for a Derby horse. His workouts have looked sharp, and perhaps Desormeaux is crazy like a fox.
7. Verifying (15-1)
The Brad Cox-trained son of Triple Crown winner Justify is an intriguing colt. On one hand, his best win is an allowance race several months ago against horses that did not make the Derby. On the other hand, he ran a very close second to Tapit Trice in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes last time out and had legitimate trouble while finishing fourth in the Grade II Rebel Stakes in his previous start. He's got talent, and his speed figures are comparable to nearly anyone in the field. He's a good price and should be on or near the lead.
6. Two Phil's (12-1)
One of the best stories of this Derby prep season is Two Phil's. Longtime trainer Larry Rivelli and jockey Jareth Loveberry are making their Kentucky Derby debut with this colt who is coming off an impressive win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. He will look to join Rich Strike and Animal Kingdom as Derby winners who ran their last race on a synthetic surface. Two Phil's has run well in every prep race he's entered and shown the versatility to sit different types of trips depending on the pace scenario. He is working out beautifully and should give a good account for himself. Look for him to be involved late.
5. Derma Sotogake (10-1)
The UAE Derby winner is looking to overcome a lot of history. He is trying to become the first Japanese horse to win the Derby (0-2), the first UAE Derby winner to win the Derby (0-18), and now the first horse to win from post No. 17 in the history of the race. That's a lot to overcome, but he's incredibly talented. The Japanese have been building an incredible horse racing program for the last several decades, and it's coming to fruition. They have dominated on big days in international races, and they have their eyes set on Churchill Downs. It's only a matter of time before a Japanese horse wins the Derby, and Derma Sotogake represents their best chance yet. He's versatile, bred for distance, and has only gotten better the more he runs. Look out.
4. Tapit Trice (5-1)
Perhaps the most talented horse in the field, Tapit Trice, has won the Grade II Tamp Bay Derby and the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes on his way to the Kentucky Derby. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt can show off dazzling displays of ability. So, why do I only have him ranked No. 4? He struggles to get away from the gate cleanly, which is a non-starter in a 20-horse field like the Derby. Additionally, he likes to run in the clear on the outside of horses. However, he drew post No. 5, which means that he'll be shuffled back and stuck on the inside rail while taking kickback. Not ideal.
3. Kingsbarns (12-1)
The closer we get to the Derby, the more I think Kingsbarns has a real chance to upset the field. Perhaps the least acclaimed of the three Todd Pletcher colts, Kingsbarns has only run three times, winning all of them by a combined 13 lengths. He will be forwardly placed early but does not need the lead. His victory in the Grade I Louisiana Derby almost looked too easy as he dispatched the rest of the field without even trying. His jockey that day, Flavien Prat, has decided to ride another horse in the Derby, which might be a slight cause for concern. However, Kingsbarns should get the right trip and stay out of trouble while saving ground on the inside. He'll be a force late.
2. Forte (3-1)
To quote the professional wrestler Ric Flair, "To be the man, you gotta beat the man." And in horse racing, Forte is "the man." He's the reigning Breeders' Cup Juvenile Champion and was named Champion two-year-old. He's won six of his seven career races, including four Grade I contests. He oozes confidence in the paddock and has shown the heart of a champion, as evidenced by a gutty victory last time out in the Grade I Florida Derby, where he overcame a bad post position and a tough trip. However, his speed figures have declined slightly from their high water mark in last year's Breeders' Cup. He looked vulnerable last time out, might get hooked wide again from post No. 15, and has a trainer (Todd Pletcher) who hasn't had a horse of his hit the board since 2018. He's a really excellent horse, but I think he comes up just short.
1. Angel of Empire (8-1)
The more I analyze the race, the more I see Angel of Empire as the logical winner. The Brad Cox-trained colt has improved every time out, which has been correlated with increasing his distance. He had humble beginnings breaking his maiden at Horseshoe Indianapolis, and Cox even tried to run him on the turf once. However, he became a monster once he started filling out more and running longer. He and Tapit Trice are the only horses to win prep races in two different circuits as Angel of Empire won the Grade II Risen Star at Fair Grounds before routing the competition at Oaklawn Park in the Grade I Arkansas Derby. Brad Cox might not have the national reputation of trainers like Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert, but he's got a fleet of horses that are unmatched this year on the Derby trail. Angel of Empire is his best. He has yet to run his best race, which I believe will come Saturday, and he'll end the day covered in roses.