2023 Kentucky Derby Draw: Post-Position Analysis For Monday's Winners and Losers
2023 Kentucky Derby Draw: Post-Position Analysis For Monday's Winners and Losers
On Monday afternoon at Churchill Downs, the field for the 149th Kentucky Derby was drawn, and post positions were announced. Typically, post positions for graded stakes races do not attract this much scrutiny, but this is a 20-horse field for the World's Most Famous Race and the Fastest Two Minutes in Sports.
Post Positions and Morning Line
| Post | Horse | Morning Line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hit Show | 30-1 |
| 2 | Verifying | 15-1 |
| 3 | Two Phil's | 12-1 |
| 4 | Confidence Game | 20-1 |
| 5 | Tapit Trice | 5-1 |
| 6 | Kingsbarns | 12-1 |
| 7 | Reincarnate | 50-1 |
| 8 | Mage | 15-1 |
| 9 | Skinner | 20-1 |
| 10 | Practical Move | 10-1 |
| 11 | Disarm | 30-1 |
| 12 | Jace's Road | 15-1 |
| 13 | Sun Thunder | 50-1 |
| 14 | Angel of Empire | 8-1 |
| 15 | Forte | 3-1 (favorite) |
| 16 | Raise Cain | 50-1 |
| 17 | Derma Sotogake (JPN) | 10-1 |
| 18 | Rocket Can | 15-1 |
| 19 | Lord Miles | 30-1 |
| 20 | Continuar (JPN) | 50-1 |
Kentucky Derby Draw Fast Facts
- Post position No. 17 has NEVER produced a winning horse in the history of the Kentucky Derby. Furthermore, no horse breaking from post position 17 has finished in the top three since 1988, which is the longest drought for any post position.
- Aside from post position No. 17, the post position with the longest winning draught is No. 14, which has not produced a winner since Carry Back in 1961.
- Post position No. 5 has produced the MOST winners (10) in the history of the Kentucky Derby, and horses starting from that post have won at a 10.8% clip.
- Despite the negative perception, post position No. 1 has produced eight Kentucky Derby winners, but none since Ferdinand in 1986.
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Kentucky Derby Draw Winners and Losers
Winner: Forte
The morning line favorite got a favorable post position for trainer Todd Pletcher. Historically, post position No. 15 has yielded six winners and a 9.8% win rate, which includes 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic. Forte has a versatile running style: he can sit close to the pace or close from the back. Post position No. 15 keeps him out of the mess down near the rail, allowing him and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. to survey the field and slot in at the best place. If he can avoid being hung wide in the first turn, Forte should sit a good trip.
Loser: Tapit Trice
While post position No. 5 has been a successful one in the history of the Kentucky Derby, Tapit Trice would likely prefer to trade places with his stablemate Forte. Tapit Trice tends to break a half step slow, which can be exacerbated with an inside post as the rest of the field will come crashing down on the rail. Additionally, the horses posted immediately around Tapit Trice will flash early speed, which means that he will likely be shuffled back. In his previous races, jockey Luis Saez has expertly moved Tapit Trice to the far outside to keep the horse in the clear. It seems very unlikely that he will be able to create such a trip this time, and Tapit Trice could be left dealing with an uncomfortable inside trip.
Winner: Kingsbarns
The third of three Todd Pletcher-trained horses gets the No. 6 post and should be able to carve out an ideal trip. He's got very nice early speed and should be able to sit a ground-saving stalking trip, depending on who else wants to get to the lead. Historically, we've seen forwardly-placed horses perform well at the Kentucky Derby. Horses like Rich Strike and Mine That Bird are memorable winners coming from the back but are often the exception to the rule. Kingsbarns, with jockey Jose Ortiz aboard, should be sitting no worse than third early and will be able to save plenty of ground compared to the rest of the field.
Loser: Derma Sotogake
The UAE Derby winner was looking to overcome a lot of history in this year's Kentucky Derby, and now he will have to do even more. He is looking to become the first Japanese horse (0-2) and the first winner of the UAE Derby (0-18) to win the Kentucky Derby. Now, he's going to have to add becoming the first horse to win from post position No. 17. There have been nice horses who have been assigned that post in previous editions of the Kentucky Derby, but it seems never to work out. Post No. 17 also has the longest drought of having any horse starting from that position even finish in the top three.
Winner: Brad Cox
The trainer has four horses entered in Saturday's Kentucky Derby, and his two horses with the best chances to win both got advantageous post positions. Some might think the No. 2 post for Verifying is too far inside, but I disagree. He's a speed horse and will flash that early speed to establish a good position and a ground-saving trip similar to Kingsbarns. Additionally, post position No. 2 has produced the second-highest percentage of top-three finishes (27%) in the history of the Kentucky Derby. Meanwhile, his most likely win candidate, Angel of Empire, drew post No.14 and will be able to sit a very similar trip to his main competition, No. 15 Forte. Brad Cox got a Kentucky Derby victory in 2021 via disqualification, but he is in a great spot to have one of his horses cross the finish line first this year.
For the latest 2023 Kentucky Derby odds, click here