2023 Kentucky Derby Odds, Betting Lines, Predictions: Kentucky Derby Odds Favoring Forte
2023 Kentucky Derby Odds, Betting Lines, Predictions: Kentucky Derby Odds Favoring Forte
The 149th running of the Kentucky Derby features a crop of three-year-old colts that are evenly matched. Each has its strengths and weaknesses, which makes it a wonderful betting race, but a difficult one to handicap as there are eight to ten strong win contenders. Unlike previous years, we've seen some of the strongest runners coming out of the Fair Grounds (Louisiana) and Oaklawn (Arkansas) circuits.
However, there are other intriguing storylines such as the 2022 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Champion, Forte, attempting to be the first Breeders' Cup Juvenile Champion to win the Kentucky Derby since Nyquist did it in 2016. We also have a strong international presence with two intriguing Japanese horses that could make history if they win.
So, let's break down the odds before we get into my early 2023 Kentucky Derby pick.
2023 Kentucky Derby Odds
| Horse | 2023 Kentucky Derby Odds |
|---|---|
| Forte | +250 |
| TapitTrice | +600 |
| Practical Move | +800 |
| Angel of Empire | +1000 |
| Derma Sotogake | +1000 |
| Kingsbarns | +1000 |
| Mandarin Hero | +1600 |
| Verifying | +1600 |
| Mage | +2000 |
| Two Phils | +2000 |
For the latest 2023 Kentucky Derby odds, click here
2023 Kentucky Betting Derby Preview - Main Contenders
Forte
- Current Kentucky Derby Odds: 5-2
- Projected ML odds: 3-1
- Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Forte has answered the bell at every call. He was the 2022 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Champion and after a four-month absence, he returned to the track to easily win the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park (FL). He followed that up with a gutty victory despite a wide post position at the Grade I Florida Derby. He's a versatile horse that can sit close to the lead or further back and make a charge late. A potential cause for concern is that he has not progressed dramatically from his 2-year-old to his 3-year-old campaign in terms of his speed figures. Additionally, his trainer, Todd Pletcher, is only 2-62 (3%) at winning the Kentucky Derby with none of his horses finishing in the top three since 2018.
Tapit Trice
- Current Kentucky Derby Odds: 6-1
- Projected ML Odds: 5-1
- Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Jockey: Luis Saez
This Todd Pletcher-trained colt is one of the more divisive in the field. There is no denying his brilliance as he has won four of five career starts. However, he has shown a propensity to struggle getting out of the starting gate. In his win at the Grade II Tampa Bay Derby he broke dead last and his jockey, Luis Saez, had pushed him the whole way to keep him engaged before making a spectacular stretch run lapping the field to win in dramatic fashion. He improved his break in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes and won a stretch duel against fellow Kentucky Derby entrant Verifying. In the Blue Grass, Saez kept Tapit Trice wide through much of the race, which might be a difficult trip to replicate in the Kentucky Derby. Tapit Trice's talent is obvious, but he needs things to break the right way to win.
Derma Sotogake
- Current Kentucky Derby Odds: 10-1
- Projected ML odds: 6-1
- Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi
- Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
One of two Japanese entrants, Derma Sotogake burst onto the Kentucky Derby trail with his dominant victory in the Grade I UAE Derby in Meydan. He jumped to the lead that day and never looked back while being given a hand ride by international superstar jockey Christophe Lemaire. He has a lot of history to overcome if he is going to win this year's Kentucky Derby as Japanese horses are 0-2 and UAE Derby winners who ship over to run at Churchill Downs are 0-18. However, he is a well-meant horse who has won multiple graded stakes races internationally. Japan has been building a serious horse racing program and their horses have won on big stages in the United States before with two wins (Marche Lorraine and Loves Only You) in the 2021 Breeders' Cup. He is far more versatile than his UAE Derby front-running trip might indicate and the trend line of Japanese domination at international events suggests that he's a serious threat.
Angel of Empire
- Current Kentucky Derby Odds: 10-1
- Projected ML odds: 8-1
- Trainer: Brad Cox
- Jockey: Flavien Prat
The Pennsylvania-bred horse took a while to break through, but he has been incredibly impressive the last two times out winning the Grade II Risen Star and the Grade I Arkansas Derby. Angel of Empire is a horse that sits off the pace and will make a strong move late. He is aided by a tremendous pedigree that suggests he will enjoy running longer, which is important as all of these horses are stretching out to 1 1/4 miles for the first time. In both of his last two races, he benefitted from an aggressive early pace in front of him that allowed him to make up ground late. While the pace of this year's Kentucky Derby will not resemble last year's suicidal sprint, he will be aided by his stablemates Jace's Road and Verifying going to the front and setting honest fractions. He's a serious contender and one that will be picking horses off late.
Practical Move
- Current Kentucky Derby Odds: 8-1
- Projected ML odds: 10-1
- Trainer: Tim Yakteen
- Jockey: Ramon Vazquez
Last year, Tim Yakteen came to the Kentucky Derby with two former Bob Baffert-trained horses since Baffert was (and still is) ineligible to enter horses in the Kentucky Derby. While Yakteen does have a former Baffert horse in their year's field (Reincarnate), his best chance to win is homegrown colt Practical Move. While the California circuit was not as strong this year, Practical Move swept the Kentucky Derby prep season by winning the Los Alamitos Futurity, the Grade II San Felipe Stakes, and the Grade I Santa Anita Derby. However, there are concerns mostly centered on his pedigree. His sire, Practical Joke, has largely yielded sprinters with very few of his progeny showing the capacity to run two-turns and handle the 10 furlongs of the Kentucky Derby. Practical Move has also benefitted from inside rail trips in which he saves ground, sits just behind the leaders, and then launches a bid at the top of the stretch. That is a very specific type of running style that might not be possible to replicate at the Kentucky Derby, especially if he draws an outside post position.
Kentucky Derby Pick - Early Prediction
Derma Sotogake
Yes, UAE Derby winners are 0-18 in their history running at the Kentucky Derby, but I cannot ignore the trend line of history. Over the last five years, Japan has slowly started to dominate international racing. We got a taste of it in 2021 when they stormed off with two Breeders' Cup championships and they are breeding the right way to win a Triple Crown race. There are conflicting reports over how well Derma Sotogake is training over the Churchill Downs surface, but he should sit a nice trip tucked behind the leaders before making a move at the top of the stretch. His best career efforts are on dirt and he should like the added distance. We saw Team Japan beat Team U.S.A. in the World Baseball Classic this spring and might just see another Japanese victory in an American pastime come May 6.
Kentucky Derby FAQs
When is the Kentucky Derby?
The Kentucky Derby is usually run in early May, and this year is no different. The 2023 Kentucky Derby is scheduled to take place on Saturday, May 6, 2023.
- Date: Saturday, May 6, 2023
What Time is the Kentucky Derby?
The answer to this one is a little more complicated than you'd think. What time is the 2023 Kentucky Derby? Well, coverage starts early in the afternoon, but the official post time for the 2023 Kentucky Derby is 6:57 pm ET.
- Time: 6:57 pm ET
Where is the Kentucky Derby?
The one constant about the Kentucky Derby year in and year out is where it's held. The 2023 Kentucky Derby will be run at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Churchill Downs has become synonymous with the Kentucky Derby. It opened in 1875.
- Location: Churchill Downs (Louisville, Kentucky)
Who Won the 2022 Kentucky Derby?
The 2022 Kentucky Derby was one to remember. Favorites such as Taiba, Epicenter and Zandon were expected to lead the pack, but it was Rich Strike that won the 2022 Kentucky Derby at an amazing 80-1 price.
- 2022 Kentucky Derby Winner: Rick Strike (80-1)
When is the Kentucky Derby Draw?
One of the most important parts of Kentucky Derby week is the Kentucky Derby draw. As always, the 2023 Kentucky Derby will take place the Monday prior to the race. So, this year the draw falls on May 1, 2023.
- Kentucky Derby Draw: May 1, 2023
What Horse is Favored to Win the Kentucky Derby?
The official Kentucky Derby odds aren't available yet, but our friends at bet365 have futures odds available that give a preview of what we can expect. According to those Kentucky Derby odds, Forte is the favorite to win the 2023 Kentucky Derby.
- 2023 Kentucky Derby Favorite: Forte
How do Odds Work in the Kentucky Derby?
Kentucky Derby odds work much like odds for any other sporting event, but there is one major difference. Like all other odds, if your horse goes off at 6/1 and wins, you win six times your original stake. Where Kentucky Derby odds differ, as do all horse racing odds in the United States, is that they aren't fixed odds. That is to say that if you get a horse at 10/1 but it goes off at 5/1, then your ticket is good for those 5/1 odds they had at the time of the race, not the 10/1 odds you originally bet.
What are the current Kentucky Derby Odds?
| Horse | 2023 Kentucky Derby Odds |
|---|---|
| Forte | +250 |
| TapitTrice | +600 |
| Practical Move | +800 |
| Angel of Empire | +1000 |
| Derma Sotogake | +1000 |
| Kingsbarns | +1000 |
| Mandarin Hero | +1600 |
| Verifying | +1600 |
| Mage | +2000 |
| Two Phils | +2000 |
For the latest 2023 Kentucky Derby odds, click here