NHL MVP Odds: Auston Matthews Surpasses Nathan MacKinnon For Lead In MVP Race
NHL MVP ODDS: Auston Matthews Surpasses Nathan MacKinnon For Lead In MVP Race
Auston Matthews has finally jumped into first place in the 2024 Hart Trophy odds market. Toronto's first-line center leads the NHL in goals scored (53) and ranks third in goals created (36.0) this season, but most importantly, the Maple Leafs are 9-1 straight up in their last 10 games played.
Production is the focal point but win percentage is also a key metric for how oddsmakers set updated Hart Trophy betting markets. It's why David Pastrnak, who has continued to score goals, has dropped down from a contender at +1200 a few weeks ago, to +5000, as Boston has sputtered with a 3-2-5 record in its last 10 games played.
Nathan MacKinnon also continues to produce for Colorado but the Avalanche aren't winning like they were prior to the All-Star Weekend. The Avs are 5-4-1 in their last 10 games and just got routed by Nashville, although MacKinnon's production remains strong, recording one goal in four of his past five games. Three of these games resulted in a multi-point effort, which is the reason MacKinnon sits comfortably in second ahead of Nikita Kucherov and Connor McDavid.
Kucherov and McDavid are on two very different teams stylistically but each has produced similar results. Tampa Bay relies on Kucherov to set up most of their scoring chances on the first-line attack, which is why he remains first in the league for total points (105), recording 38 goals and 67 assists. McDavid is the current assist leader at 74, but he's ended his goal scoring slump, scoring in two of his past three games, including an overtime winner against St. Louis to end the slump.
NHL handicapper Matt MacKay is back to give his analysis on how to bet the latest NHL MVP odds for the 2023-24 Hart Trophy using the latest odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook.
NHL MVP ODDS
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| PLAYER | ODDS | TRENDING | IMPLIED CHANCE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 165 | Up | 37.74% |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 210 | Neutral | 32.26% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 280 | Down | 26.32% |
| Connor McDavid | 360 | Down | 21.74% |
NHL MVP ODDS BREAKDOWN
Auston Matthews going for +220 in the Hart Trophy betting markets last week didn't last long. He's now down to +165 and it will continue to dry up in value if Matthews continues to score goals and the Maple Leafs pile up wins. This would be Matthews' second Hart Trophy, winning his first MVP in 2022.
In fact, three of the top four candidates in the current Hart Trophy odds are previous winners, excluding Nathan MacKinnon, who is seeking his first MVP. Kucherov won in 2019, while McDavid has three MVP awards in his display case.
When it comes to betting on the Hart Trophy market, we want to factor in how each team's faring in terms of record, wins, and style points. All four of these players are production machines, with most winning the MVP once before.
MacKinnon is the primary force for Colorado's offense but the Avalanche are struggling to tread water, coming off of a 5-1 road loss to the Predators. Oddsmakers didn't budge MacKinnon up or down in the odds market, which is a bit concerning since he's scored a goal in three straight games since the last article was published. +210 is good value since he was minus odds a few weeks ago, but it seems like oddsmakers are favoring the quality of team surrounding their MVP candidate more than pure production.
Since this is the case, Matthews and McDavid jump off the page to me. Yes, Kucherov is an absolute beast on the ice, but Tampa Bay losing back-to-back games against Philadelphia and Buffalo, while requiring a shootout to beat Montreal, speaks volumes about the state of the Lightning right now.
As long as Toronto continues to win and Matthews is scoring, he'll remain firmly in the mix for his second Hart Trophy. One more two or three-goal game between now and next week could bump these odds down from +165 to +100 or even minus odds. Toronto has a huge game on Monday against Boston, which will tell us a lot about both teams, so getting in front of this matchup by investing in Matthews at +165 is a wise investment.
McDavid is the other player who has a ton of value compared to the rest of the Hart Trophy field. Edmonton's leader in points (97) and assists (74), McDavid has logged four multi-point games in his last five outings. Whether he's finishing a play or finding the open teammate in the offensive zone, it's clear that McDavid is the most talented skater on the ice night in and night out. +360 seems too good to be true, as oddsmakers took McDavid's odds from +350 to +360 over the past week, which may be due to ugly wins over St. Louis and Seattle.
Ultimately, for me, based on the play of each team and their Hart Trophy favorite, it comes down to Matthews and McDavid. Stake a couple of units on each MVP prospect as we enter the final six-week stretch where teams jostle to lock up playoff seeding.
NHL ODDS
Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.