NHL MVP Odds: Nathan MacKinnon Remains Heavy Favorite in NHL MVP Race
NHL MVP Odds: Nathan MacKinnon Remains Heavy Favorite in NHL MVP Race
The NHL All-Star Weekend is officially in the books, with Auston Matthews putting on a show for Toronto Maple Leafs fans in attendance, scoring two goals to win All-Star Game MVP.
In this article, we're focused on the Hart Trophy odds, which is awarded to the regular season MVP. Due to the lack of games played since last week, little line movement has been made on the top five NHL MVP prospects. Nathan MacKinnon remains a heavy favorite at -135 odds, while Nikita Kucherov sits comfortably in second-place, leading the league in points (85), goals crated (31.4) and tied first for assist with 53.
NHL handicapper Matt MacKay is here to share his latest analysis and betting advice for how to wager the current NHL MVP betting markets entering the second half of the 2024 NHL season.
NHL MVP ODDS
Click here for the latest NHL MVP odds
| Player | Odds | Implied Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | -135 | 57.45% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 300 | 25% |
| Connor McDavid | 430 | 18.87% |
| David Pastrnak | 1200 | 7.69% |
| Auston Matthews | 1300 | 7.14% |
NHL MVP ODDS BREAKDOWN
Colorado is led by their talented center, Nathan MacKinnon, who currently possesses a 57.45 percent chance of lifting the Hart Trophy. He's never won this award before, compared to Kucherov, who won MVP back in 2019. As long as the Avalanche continue winning and leading the Central Division, MacKinnon's ability to rack up points will keep him firmly atop the leaderboard. -135 odds could look appealing if he keeps this frenzied rate intact, so it's not a bad number to invest in at the moment.
Kucherov is a screaming value at +300 odds. Yes, Tampa Bay doesn't lead their division, but the Russian winger's ability to create scoring chances, while tied with MacKinnon for total assists (53) cannot be discounted. Kucherov is currently on a four-game point streak, which included a hat trick against the Flyers, along with four total goals and six assists. Three of these four games were multi-point outings. Kucherov's odds will quickly shorten if he returns from the All-Star break with this level of production. Plus, if MacKinnon slows down for a three to five game stretch, while Kucherov continues to produce, he could jump MacKinnon as the 2024 Hart Trophy favorite.
Connor McDavid is the final prospect under +1000 odds, available at +430. Somehow, McDavid is the only player who saw his odds decrease, going from +400 to +430. Edmonton has ripped off 16 consecutive wins, which is a massive reason why McDavid is in the MVP race. Yes, he's been heating up, but McDavid is third in total goals on his own team (20), outpaced by Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman. If Edmonton stumbles at all, which they inevitably will at some point, McDavid's odds become much better, likely falling into the +500 range.
David Pastrnak and Auston Matthews round out the top-five, each possessing elite goal-scoring ability. Pastrnak plays for the better team, as the Boston Bruins are once again scorching teams in the regular season, but Matthews has a three-goal lead (40) over the next highest goal scorer, Sam Reinhart. Matthews is fifth in goals created (26.6) versus Pastrnak who is slightly higher at 28.8. However, Matthews has taken 50 less shots on goal than Pastrnak, scoring in bunches.
Between these last two NHL MVP prospects, I'd side with Pastrnak, who also is ninth in assists (39) and third in total points (72), versus Matthews, who tends to be a bit more streaky on a Toronto team that continuously underachieves. +1200 for Pastrnak is worth 0.25 units, while MacKinnon is a three-unit play, with Kucherov warranting a one-unit investment at +300 odds.
Other ODDS
Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.