College Football Playoff Odds: Florida State Rejoins Field Ahead of Championship Weekend
College Football Playoff Odds: Florida State Rejoins Field Ahead of Championship Weekend
The College Football Playoff rankings came out for the penultimate time on Tuesday night, and there was a stir in the field after a top team dropped out.
Ohio State fell to Michigan on Saturday afternoon and the Big House, likely ending their CFP hopes.
In a corresponding move, the Washington Huskies climbed into the third spot for the first time this year, after surviving a scare from Washington State in the Apple Cup. They will now anxiously await their rematch with the Oregon Ducks for the Pac-12 Championship, which is ultimately a winner-take-all for the third playoff spot.
Florida State was able to climb into fourth, following their comeback effort against the Florida Gators. They now have a highly-anticipated battle with the Louisville Cardinals for the ACC Championship on Saturday night, that will determine the final playoff spot. Can they rally the troops with the backup QB and stay undefeated, even without Jordan Travis?
Let's take a look at the latest odds after the College Football Playoff Rankings came out for the fifth time this year, and see who's got the best chance of making it with just one game left.
College Football Playoff Odds
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan Wolverines | -6000 | 98.4% |
| Georgia Bulldogs | -520 | 83.9% |
| Oregon Ducks | -280 | 73.7% |
| Florida State Seminoles | -150 | 60% |
| Texas Longhorns | +145 | 40.8% |
| Alabama Crimson Tide | +175 | 36.4% |
| Washington Huskies | +250 | 28.6% |
| Ohio State Buckeyes | +1600 | 5.9% |
College Football Playoff Rankings and Odds
1. Georgia Bulldogs (-520)
The Georgia Bulldogs will battle against the Alabama Crimson Tide for the SEC Championship on Saturday afternoon. The Bulldogs remain undefeated after surviving a slight scare from the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, their in-state rival. The Ramblin' Wreck put up a strong fight in the rivalry battle, and shouldn't be any cause for concern for the Bulldogs.
Their larger worry should be the Alabama team sitting in front of them, led by Nick Saban. The Tide's legendary coach has had the Bulldogs' number for the most part, defeating them in the last three SEC Championship meetings. Can the Bulldogs stop the streak and assert their spot atop the College Football Playoff Rankings?
2. Michigan Wolverines (-6000)
The Michigan Wolverines have all but locked up a playoff spot with their home victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes. They will take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Big Ten Championship this weekend, and are heavily favored in the contest.
The Wolverines are now -6000 to make the College Football Playoff for the third straight year, and it would take a miracle for them to miss it. They are 23-point favorites against the Hawkeyes, who have had trouble scoring all year. Iowa only has a point total of 0.5 in each half, and the oddsmakers aren't confident that they can even put up a touchdown. The Wolverines beat the Hawkeyes 42-3 in the same game in 2021, and it should be more of the same in this one. Look for Michigan to cruise in this spot and claim their third straight Big Ten title.
3. Washington Huskies (+250)
The Washington Huskies are clinging to a chance at the playoff, but the ranking is not evident of their chances. Michael Penix Jr. has led the Huskies to an undefeated record through 12 games, and will have to win one more to seal the deal.
Despite all of their success and third ranking, the Huskies are in danger of missing the playoff. They have semi-longshot odds at +250 to make the playoff, and will have to survive an onslaught from the Ducks in the Pac-12 Championship game. Penix and the Huskies are nearly 10-point underdogs, in spite of their previous victory over Oregon in the middle of the season. Oregon has improved vastly, and oddsmakers don't believe that Washington can win this second time around.
4. Florida State Seminoles (-150)
Florida State is still clinging onto a chance to make the College Football Playoff, surviving a road scare against the Florida Gators last weekend.
These -150 odds are essentially the same as their odds to beat Louisville in the ACC Championship. As the dust settles from last weekend, it has become more apparent that Florida State is in a "win, and they're in" position.
In the final rankings next week, the top two would remain the same if Georgia can take care of business against Alabama. The Oregon/Washington winner would grab third, and FSU and Texas would be duking it out for the fourth spot if they both won.
There is a chance that Texas could leapfrog the Seminoles in the event of a blowout victory, even if FSU defeats Louisville in a close one. The best way for the Seminoles to solidify their 60% chance of making the playoff would be by manhandling the Cardinals on both sides of the ball.
A dominating victory would all but guarantee them their playoff spot despite rolling with a backup quarterback. They will need the defense to step up and cause turnovers on Saturday night, and prevent Jack Plummer and the Cardinals from putting up points.
The result of the Texas game will be known by the time the Seminoles suit up from Bank of America Stadium, and if the Longhorns have already won by multiple touchdowns, the pressure will be squarely on FSU and backup QB Tate Rodemaker.
5. Oregon Ducks (-280)
The Oregon Ducks are in a "win, and they're in" scenario. They will battle the Washington Huskies on Friday night in the final Pac-12 Championship Game. Bo Nix and the Ducks are seeking revenge for their mid-season defeat to the Huskies after a missed field goal as time expired.
The Ducks are heavy favorites over Washington to get the victory. After opening with a touchdown spread, it has climbed all the way to -9.5 as money pours in on the Ducks. They have looked like the much better team, defeated every opponent by multiple scores since the Washington game. While the Huskies have floundered and nearly lost many of their games, the Ducks have been an offensive machine averaging 42 ppg in the same span. They will look to showcase their improvement to the world from Allegiant Stadium, and prove why they deserve a spot in the field with a big win over undefeated Washington.
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (+1600)
The Ohio State Buckeyes were effectively eliminated from playoff contention with their loss to the Michigan Wolverines. The Buckeyes had been in the top-2 of the CFP rankings since they began releasing in the second half of the season. The committee felt very strongly about them, but ultimately they couldn't win the most important game of their season.
After the 6-point loss to the Wolverines, the Buckeyes were unable to qualify for the Big Ten Championship, and thus will not be able to fight for the spot. In years prior, they had been able to sneak into the fourth playoff spot because of others losing, but with a trio of one loss teams in championship games this weekend, they will all be able to beat out the Buckeyes in the final standings.
7. Texas Longhorns (+145)
The Texas Longhorns are headed for their first Big 12 Championship since 2009, as long as they can take down the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Longhorns are 14-point favorites to win the game at AT&T Stadium on Saturday afternoon, and will have to wait for the remainder of the day to see if they can make the playoff.
8. Alabama Crimson Tide (+175)
Alabama barely escaped against the Auburn Tigers in the Iron Bowl clash last weekend. They needed a conversion on 4th and 31 to take the lead with under 30 seconds remaining, and were able to hold on for the comeback victory. They arrive to the SEC Championship game with one loss to Texas, but will need to take down UGA for a shot to advance.
For the Tide to make the playoff, they will need to first upset the Georgia Bulldogs. Nick Saban and the Tide are 3-0 in the SEC Championship against Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs. He has proven the ability to take down the Dawgs in the conference championship game, but the Bulldogs got the last laugh when they defeated them for the 2021 National Championship.
College Football Odds
Peter is a sports writer focused on coverage and analysis of college football and basketball, as well as the NFL and other major sports. A graduate of the University of Missouri School of Journalism, he has been writing sports articles for over 8 years.
After working for ClutchPoints, Peter joined OddsChecker in 2023. He is a New York sports superfan and is fluent in the sports betting industry.