2024 March Madness: Ranking the Best 11th Seeds and Their Upset Chances
2024 March Madness: Ranking the Best 11th Seeds and Their Upset Chances
The 2024 men's March Madness bracket has been officially set ahead of Thursday's opening round of games.
Every year, for whatever reason, teams who qualify as an 11 seed tend to be dangerous for their opponents to beat. It's no different this time. All four 11 seeds are capable of advancing past the first weekend to clinch a berth in the Sweet 16, although stylistically, they are much different than each other.
In this article, we'll highlight each 11 seed and rank them best to worst, along with predicting their upset chances in the tournament.
1. NEW MEXICO LOBOS (+7500) CLICK HERE TO SEE NEW MEXICO'S ODDS TO WIN NCAA TOURNAMENT
New Mexico wound up winning the Mountain West against San Diego State after heating up during the conference tournament.
The Lobos have won four in a row and five of their last six entering a Round 1 matchup against the 6-seed Clemson Tigers. New Mexico ranks 93rd in field goal percentage, averaging 46 percent, while only converting 6.5 three pointers on 19.7 attempts per game.
Clemson ranks better in both shooting metrics, however, the Lobos are undoubtedly the hotter team following their win over San Diego State. The Tigers have lost three of their last four games, so despite New Mexico being No. 11, oddsmakers already have them favored at -2.5.
A win over Clemson would mean a likely matchup against 3-seed Baylor Bears in Round 2, which also offers a pathway to another victory. Investing in New Mexico is a wise decision right now.
2. OREGON DUCKS (+20000) CLICK HERE TO SEE OREGON'S ODDS TO WIN NCAA TOURNAMENT
Oregon just beat Colorado 75-68 to win the Pac-12 conference title, extending their win streak to four games entering Round 1 against South Carolina.
The Gamecocks play a physical style of defense which could affect the Ducks' offense, however, Oregon averages 45.7 percent from the field. 33.6 percent from three-pointer isn't ideal though, while the Ducks are even worse at the free throw line, converting under 72 percent of attempts.
The Ducks can outscore the Gamecocks, which bodes well for a Round 1 upset at +1.5 with -120 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. However, in Round 2, assuming Creighton gets past Akron, Oregon will have a tough time defending the Bluejays, who average 48.6 percent from the field.
The win over Colorado was big, but Oregon's win over the sixth-ranked Arizona Wildcats by eight points was even more meaningful. The Ducks are hitting their stride at the right time and could wind up making a run out of the first weekend in the Midwest Region, which appears to be one of the weaker regions on the bracket.
3. NC STATE WOLFPACK (+35000) CLICK HERE TO SEE NC STATE'S ODDS TO WIN NCAA TOURNAMENT
NC State managed to win the ACC tournament over UNC in convincing fashion this past weekend. The Wolfpack are led by D.J. Horne and D.J. Burns, who both average over 12 points per game and pack a nice one-two punch, with Horne playing in the backcourt, while Burns dominates down low in the paint.
Texas Tech averages 45.3 percent shooting from the field, marginally better than NC State at 45.0 percent, but the Wolfpack are buzzing right now following their win over the Tar Heels. Momentum is everything in March, and NC State possesses it in spades.
The problem with backing NC State in the futures market as a bettor is knowing that they'll face a Kentucky Wildcats team with a juggernaut offense in Round 2. In the mean time, we're very enticed by NC State's opening line against Texas Tech at +5.5.
This is a quality bet to lay ahead of this Round 1 matchup against the Red Raiders in the South Region on Thursday night, but laying any other futures bets on the Wolfpack is ill-advised due to the strength of the South Region.
4. DUQUESNE DUKES (+50000) CLICK HERE TO SEE DUSQUESNE'S ODDS TO WIN NCAA TOURNAMENT
Finally, we've come down to the Duquesne Dukes as the last 11 seed in the men's tournament.
Duquesne is the definition of red-hot on the hardwood right now, winning eight consecutive games, including the A10, which required beating No. 24 Dayton and VCU in the conference final.
The Dukes are great defensively, holding their last three opponents to 60 or fewer points. Offensively, they are mediocre in terms of field goal percentage, averaging 44.1 percent and converting 7.6 three-pointers on 22.4 attempts. The latter is only a 34 percent rate from behind the arc, forcing Duquesne's defense to step up in most matchups.
BYU is a tough matchup, since the 6-seeded Cougars average 46.2 percent from the field. Duquesne has been quite fun to follow during their run in the A10, but even if they manage to advance past BYU, an stacked Illinois team awaits in Round 2.
+7.5 is the opening spread for the Dukes, who are +275 odds on the moneyline, making them sizable underdogs against BYU in Round 1. Their defense, which is a staple of their winning method, needs to remain air-tight to get past the Cougars, so under 142.5 total points could be a strong wager to place instead.
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Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.