It’s Big Rock vs Inspiral in the Lockinge Stakes 2024 at Newbury.
15:35 Saturday
The weekend’s big race is the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury. The contest has attracted a field of 11. It is headlined by the rematch between Inspiral and Big Rock, with the former installed as the favourite.
John and Thady Gosden’s mare will bid for a seventh win at the highest level. She will have to overcome the French raider and a host of other top-class horses, including the hat-trick-seeking Charyn, who is unbeaten in two starts this season.
Lockinge Stakes Runners Guide
1. Audience
- Trainer: John and Thady Gosden
- Jockey: Rab Havlin
- Form: 116223
- Odds: 50/1
Largely consistent and is more than capable when fresh, having won a decent Group 3 race at Newbury on his return last year. He then acquitted himself very well in three consecutive Group 2 races, including when he finished runner-up twice.
However, this is a tough starting point, and he’s probably in here to do pacemaker duties for stablemate Inspiral. This is also his first try over a mile, so he has plenty to find on form and ratings and would be a surprise winner.
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2. Big Rock
- Trainer: Maurizio Guarnieri
- Jockey: Aurelien Lemaitre
- Form: 112221
- Odds: 9/4
Top-class French raider who blitzed a high-class field when taking the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot in October by six lengths. That form has worked out well, with the runner-up, Facteur Cheval, subsequently landing Meydan’s Group 1 Dubai Turf.
The ground won’t be as soft this time around, but he has form on a quicker surface and should be in the mix. There’s a suspicion he might get taken on for the lead though, which would make his task of consuming his energy a little more difficult.
3. Charyn
- Trainer: Roger Varian
- Jockey: Silvestre De Sousa
- Form: 383311
- Odds: 5/1
An extremely consistent operator who made the frame in three high-quality Group 1 races last year. Those creditable efforts in defeat were in the Irish 2,000 Guineas, St James's Palace Stakes, and the Sussex Stakes, and he has improved run-by-run since.
Having done well physically over the winter, he has returned with a vengeance by winning the Doncaster Mile and the bet365 Mile at Sandown when last spotted. He will need to show even further improvement, but this has been the main aim, and he’s in with a shout.
4. Dear My Friend
- Trainer: Charlie Johnston
- Jockey: Joe Fanning
- Form: 001110
- Odds: 66/1
Racked up a sequence of wins on the all-weather earlier this year before his winning run came to an abrupt end on Finals Day, albeit off a monster weight.
He has yet to prove he’s as good on the turf despite two wins on the surface and this is a significant step up in grade. Nonetheless, he could surprise a few.
5. Flight Plan
- Trainer: Karl Burke
- Jockey: Danny Tudhope
- Form: 207231
- Odds: 28/1
Took him a while to realise his true potential after finishing down the field in last season’s 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, but he ended last season on a high with a gutsy front-running victory in a Group 2 race at Leopardstown.
He should continue his progression, but he will do well to hold off some serious challengers in this field and is no doubt going to be pestered for the lead in the early stages. He was also behind Poker Face at Pontefract on worse terms.
6. Hi Royal
- Trainer: Kevin Ryan
- Jockey: Ryan Moore
- Form: 239903
- Odds: 50/1
Has only one win from nine starts, but he run with extreme credit to finish second in the 2000 Guineas last season and proved that to be no fluke by finishing third in the Irish version. His form tailed off somewhat in three starts after.
However, the application of wind surgery brought about improvement when he finished third in a Group 3 race on his reappearance. It’s interesting to see him refitted with cheekpieces and Ryan Moore booked to ride, but he will do well to place, let alone win this.
7. Poker Face
- Trainer: Simon and Ed Crisford
- Jockey: James Doyle
- Form: 211122
- Odds: 7/1
With six wins and three runner-up efforts from 11 career starts, this progressive five-year-old deserves to take his chance and has a fairly solid each-way chance despite needing to find the requisite improvement to succeed. However, this will be his stiffest task to date and he has a few pounds to find on ratings.
That doesn’t necessarily mean he can’t find it though, as his latest second to Charyn at Sandown when conceding fitness to the winner was decent. Last season, he won the Group 2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein before finishing second in the Premio Vittorio Di Capua, and a new personal best could be on the cards.
8. Real World
- Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor
- Jockey: Oisin Murphy
- Form: 566310
- Odds: 33/1
This former Royal Hunt Cup winner at Royal Ascot ran a huge race to finish second in this race in 2022 behind Baaeed, but has looked a shadow of his former self since.
Age might well be catching up with him, but the return to Britain could reignite the fire in his belly, given that the last time he competed over here, he finished second in the Queen Anne Stakes.
His form figures in Britain do offer encouragement in terms of a potential revival, as they read 1211122, plus Oisin Murphy is an interesting addition to the saddle.
Oisin has enjoyed poignant success in these silks, and his mount could be set to run well, provided the ground doesn’t deteriorate to anything worse than soft.
9. Royal Scotsman
- Trainer: Paul and Oliver Cole
- Jockey: Jamie Spencer
- Form: 152398
- Odds: 16/1
Top-quality juvenile and caught the eye with a slightly unlucky fourth in the 2,000 Guineas last season. He has been nowhere near that level of form in three subsequent starts, but it’s noteworthy to see him make a return at this level after a long time away from the track.
There’s no denying that he will need a career-best performance if he’s to make a winning return, and not only that, but it would be a mighty training performance. He has a good record when fresh, but it remains to be seen how much ability he retains after an absence, so he is best watched.
10. Witch Hunter
- Trainer: Richard Hannon
- Jockey: Sean Levey
- Form: 341053
- Odds: 66/1
Quirky but talented, and enjoyed a productive 2023 with big-race wins at Royal Ascot and in the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes, along with a host of place efforts.
His two efforts so far this year have been respectable, but with his overall form put into perspective, he looks out of his depth at this level and is overlooked.
11. Inspiral
- Trainer: John and Thady Gosden
- Jockey: Kieran Shoemark
- Form: 625111
- Odds: 9/4
Top-notch mare who completed a hat-trick of Group 1 wins last year. She beat Big Rock by a length and a quarter in the Prix Jacques le Marois before winning the Sun Chariot and then the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf at Santa Anita in superb style.
She goes well fresh with her record first-time-out reading 112 and has a liking for good ground. If the ground doesn’t get too soft, then she is the one they all have to beat. This six-time Group 1 winner must have every chance if she’s anywhere near her best.
Lockinge Stakes Tips & Predictions
This isn’t the strongest of renewals, and, on form at least, it probably rests between Big Rock and INSPIRAL (best price 9/4) with preference for the latter.
Cheveley Park’s brilliant mare has six Group 1 wins to her name and gave weight and a beating to Big Rock in the Prix Jacques Le Marois at Deauville.
She meets that rival on 6Ib better terms here, faced with better ground, so there’s no reason why the form of that race should be reversed. She is clear of the remainder based on ratings, goes well fresh, and has the best form in the book.
In the hope Kieran Shoemark can keep things simple, I’m confident she will be too good for these.
Inspiral, 2pts WIN, 9/4
The seven-year-old REAL WORLD (best price 33/1) makes plenty of appeal from an each way perspective on the race. His record in Britain, which reads four wins and three seconds, including a second in this race two years ago, does make him an interesting runner.
He might not be the force of old, but he’s still a classy horse and will be partnered by Oisin Murphy, who does well for these connections. It might be asking a lot of him to go and win this, but if he can perform to the level he displayed in Britain in 2022, then there’s no way he will finish outside of the frame.
