Niall Lyons has four betting tips for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
CJ Cup Byron Nelson
The Byron Nelson has a long history and recently has hopped between venues but for the fourth year running we return to TPC Craig Ranch in Dallas. Craig Ranch is one of the easiest tracks the pros will play all year and Korean KH Lee has won two renewals here at 25 and 26 under par.
Fellow Korean Sung Kang won the event at Trinity Forest back in 2019 and it's worth noting that only five Americans have won this event in the last 15 stagings. That is probably due to the wind that often materialises in Texas with internationals having a shade more experience growing up in those conditions.
Scott, Day and Bowditch have also won this event with Australians being well versed in playing in the wind. Ball striking is key around here, especially approach play. Five of the top five and ties in 2022 ranked inside the top 10 in approach play for the week whilst the exact same played out in 2021.
Last year approach play didn't feature so heavily but it's worth noting the winner Jason Day ranked 3rd with his irons for the week. Driving distance doesn't matter all too much but certainly trumps accuracy. It's a place where birdies are needed on almost every other hole so birdie or better percentages are also worth a glance.
CJ Cup Byron Nelson Tips
- 3pts each-way W.Zalatoris 20/1 (1/5 10) Coral, Ladbrokes
- 2pts each-way J.Knapp 100/1 (1/5 8) Skybet, William Hill, 888sport
- 1pt each-way P.Kuest 80/1 (1/5 8) Skybet, William Hill, 888sport
- 1pt each-way K.Dougherty 225/1 (1/5 10) Coral, Ladbrokes
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Byron Nelson Winners & Stats
- 2023 - J.Day (-23)
- 2022 - KH Lee (-26)
- 2021 - KH Lee (-25)
Will Zalatoris @ 20/1 (10 Places)
Jordan Spieth heads the betting but he'd be a vulnerable favourite in my eyes and I'm certainly worried about his lack of cutting edge form in events that suit in the past few months. Have we seen the best of Spieth? I really hope not, but there are concerns about whether he'll ever reach the heights of 2015-2017 again.
I for one would have had him nailed on for another Major but now doubts are creeping in whether he will be able to overcome some mental challenges more than anything. He makes an uneasy favourite, and I'd much prefer to play Will Zalatoris at 8pts bigger, someone who has shown considerably better form than Spieth this year.
Following a lengthy lay off the jury was out on how long it would take Zalatoris to recover, but it wasn't long at all until he went close, finishing runner up at the Genesis in mid-February. He was sitting pretty at Bay Hill also only for a few mistakes to creep in and eventually finish 4th.
A solid top 10 in the Masters followed and I'd make the case that he should be favourite here. I see little reason as to why Spieth, Day and Kim are shorter than him and he can make it pay with exceptional long irons this week at Craig Ranch.
Jake Knapp @ 100/1 (Eight Places)
Jake Knapp has went off a lot shorter than this for higher quality fields and at anything of 80/1 or bigger looks worth supporting. The difference being between now and since he won Mexico is that his game off the tee isn't quite at the level it was a couple of months ago.
However, it was a below par effort off the tee in Phoenix then he won next time out in Mexico. What has not wavered during this period is his quality with the irons. He sits 18th on tour in strokes gained approach and we know how lethal he can be on the greens.
His results since PGA National have been disappointing but with his approach play still shining any return to his form off the tee will prove telling. Knapp was a lively runner in the Arnold Palmer Invitational going off a 50/1 shot.
He was an 80/1 shot for the Players Championship the following week, two events where Scottie Scheffler went of favourite. Spieth was a 22/1 shot in the Arnold Palmer, now we see 14/1 for this. Knapp, on the other hand, has doubled to 100/1 and I don't see a valid reason why, especially back on a course that should really play to his strengths.
Peter Kuest @ 80/1 (Eight Places)
I certainly want a few bigger hitters in my staking plan this week and Peter Kuest fits the bill. Kuest managed to win a five-man playoff for one spot in the Monday qualifier at the Texas Open at the beginning of the month and seized the opportunity with a top 10 finish.
That got him into the Corales where he again finished inside the top 10, now he has the chance to continue on this fine run of form at a course that should really suit.
After a tough time of late on the Korn Ferry Tour he clearly rises to the occasion and it's worth noting during his last 18 rounds on the PGA Tour he ranks 5th in Birdie or better percentage, and 3rd in Bogey avoidance.
That's only a handful of events, but it does show what he is capable of and his game off the tee should be a real strength here at Craig Ranch.
Kevin Dougherty @ 225/1 (10 Places)
Kevin Dougherty's first full season on the PGA Tour has been somewhat disappointing but what you can't question is his ability off the tee, which should really go far this week, in more ways than one.
Dougherty is one of the longest hitters we've seen on tour and had his short game been up to scratch early in the year he could have seen a lot better results. That was largely because his iron play was reasonably good his first few events of the year also, but the work on and around the greens undone the good stuff.
He performed really well off the tee at Torrey Pines and on every performance to date this year. Should his irons improve at all then he can be a lively outsider. It's worth noting that the majority of approach shots here come in from 175+ yards and his irons improve a fair bit better than average when taking into account those lengths of shots.
