The Conservative party is braced for significant losses in today's local elections as Labour target progress in all corners of the country.
There has been speculation that major defeats in today's local elections could push the Conservatives into replacing Rishi Sunak as party leader.
However, the Prime Minister is more than 85% likely to be the Conservative Leader at the Next General Election according to the latest odds through oddschecker.
Labour leader Keir Starmer (1/5 to be the next Prime Minister), meanwhile, knows he must make significant progress in constituencies he needs to win such as Harlow, Milton Keynes, West Midlands, East Midlands, Teesside, Yorkshire and Humber.
The East Midlands Mayoral election is a key one for Labour because it is one of the marginal areas they need to swing, covering seats in Derby North, Mansfield, Ashfield, Erewash and Bassetlaw.
East Midlands Mayoral Election Odds
| East Midlands Mayor | Best Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Claire Ward (Labour) | 1/8 | Betfred |
| Ben Bradley (Conservatives) | 7/1 | Star Sports |
| Helen Tamblyn-Saville (Liberal Democrats) | 80/1 | Star Sports |
| Alan Graves (Reform UK) | 80/1 | Star Sports |
| Matt Relf (Independent) | 100/1 | William Hill |
In the North East, it will be interesting to see where they stand in Tees Valley, which will also be a test of where they are heading in constituencies like Hartlepool, Darlington, Redcar and Stockton.
Tees Valley Mayoral Election Odds
| Tees Valley Mayor | Best Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Houchen (Conservatives) | 2/7 | Betfred |
| Chris McEwan (Labour) | 7/2 | Ladbrokes |
| Simon Thorley (Liberal Democrats) | 100/1 | William Hill |
While dominant in last year's local elections, Labour was far from the National Equivalent Vote (NEV) share needed to achieve a majority government in the next general election.
A 350 seat gains would match last year but Labour needs to gain well over 400 seats to make a real statement of intent.
They are 60% likely to gain 499 or less according to the line set by William Hill. The same bookmaker makes them 47% likely to hit a seats gain of 500 or more at odds of 11/10.
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